冬季气候变暖对山西省冬小麦可种植区的影响

doi:10.11821/dlxb201405010

地理学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 69 ›› Issue (5): 672-680.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201405010

冬季气候变暖对山西省冬小麦可种植区的影响

钱锦霞, 李娜, 韩普

山西省气象决策服务中心, 太原 030006

收稿日期:2014-02-10 修回日期:2014-03-19 出版日期:2014-05-20 发布日期:2014-05-20
作者简介:钱锦霞（1966-），女，山西平遥人，高级工程师，主要从事应用气象、气候变化方面的研究。E-mail:qianjx@126.com
基金资助:
山西省科技攻关项目（20110311040-2）；山西省气象局科研项目（SXKYBNY20147830）

Influence of climate warming in winter on the winter wheat cultivable area in Shanxi Province

QIAN Jinxia, LI Na, HAN Pu

Shanxi Meteorological Service Center for Decision Making, Taiyuan 030006, China

Received:2014-02-10 Revised:2014-03-19 Published:2014-05-20 Online:2014-05-20
Supported by:
TheShanxi Scientific and Technological Project, No.20110311040-2;Shanxi Meteorological Bureau Project, No.SXKYBNY20147830

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于山西省境内较为均匀分布的70 个地面气象观测站1970-2012 年冬季逐日气温资料，采用线性倾向估计法分析了负积温、最冷月平均气温和年极端最低气温的变化特征，采用累积距平法确定其突变点，以突变点为界分为前后2 个时间段，依据前后时间段等值线的变化分析冬季气候变暖对山西省冬小麦可种植区的影响。结果表明：山西省负积温呈现显著减少趋势（通过了α=0.01 的显著检验），最冷月平均气温和年极端最低气温呈现不显著升高趋势；突变后，负积温平均减少了103.4℃，最冷月平均气温和年极端最低气温分别升高了0.8℃和0.7℃；在3 个指标中，决定山西省冬小麦能否种植的关键因子是负积温和年极端最低气温，最冷月平均气温的影响较小；冬季气候变暖后，平均状况下，冬小麦可种植区域面积扩大了约2.9×10⁶ hm²，扩大52%，80%保证率下，冬小麦种植面积扩大了约2.3×10⁶ hm²，扩大79%。

关键词: 气候变暖, 冬小麦, 冬季, 可种植区, 山西省

Abstract: Based on the daily mean temperature data of 70 meteorological stations in Shanxi Province from 1970 to 2012, the negative accumulated temperature in winter, average monthly temperature in January and extreme minimum temperature were computed and their changing trends were analyzed in this paper using linear trend estimation method, and their abrupt change points were observed by means of accumulated variance method and contours of the negative accumulated temperature in winter, average monthly temperature in January and extreme minimum temperature were compared respectively after being divided into two groups according to the abrupt change points. The results showed that the negative accumulated temperature in winter showed a remarkable decrease, and the average monthly temperature in January and extreme minimum temperature did not increase significantly. Changes were found between the two groups, the negative accumulated temperature decreased by 103.4℃, and the average monthly temperature in January and extreme minimum temperature rose by 0.7℃and 0.9℃, respectively. The negative accumulated temperature and extreme minimum temperature played a key role, which are the thresholds that the winter wheat Province could be planted or not. Under climatic warming, the winter wheat cultivable area and the reliable planting area expanded by 2.9×10⁶ hm² (increased by 52%) and 2.3×10⁶ hm² (rose by 79%), respectively.

Key words: climatic warming, winter, winter wheat, cultivable area, Shanxi Province

钱锦霞, 李娜, 韩普. 冬季气候变暖对山西省冬小麦可种植区的影响[J]. 地理学报, 2014, 69(5): 672-680.

QIAN Jinxia, LI Na, HAN Pu. Influence of climate warming in winter on the winter wheat cultivable area in Shanxi Province[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69(5): 672-680.

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冬季气候变暖对山西省冬小麦可种植区的影响

Influence of climate warming in winter on the winter wheat cultivable area in Shanxi Province

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