中国对外贸易产生的CO2排放区位转移分析

doi:10.11821/xb200902010

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

减缓以CO₂为主的温室气体排放所引起的全球气候变化问题越来越为国际社会所瞩目。目前有关的国际协定主要以国家本土温室气体排放为基准核算国家的碳排放责任和减排成效, 忽略了国际商品贸易流引起的排放区位与产品消费区位的空间分离。本文利用 2000~2006 年中国海关货物进出口商品分类数据, 采用投入产出法, 分析了中国货物进出口贸易产生的CO₂排放区位向中国的转移效应。结果表明, 中国出口商品内涵的CO₂排放量从 2000 年的9.6 亿t 增加到2006 年的19.1 亿t, 每年占全国总排放的比重基本在30%-35%。扣除进口商品使我国避免在本土排放的CO₂, 货物进出口贸易使净转移到我国的CO₂ 排放量至少从2.3 亿t 增加到7.2 亿t, 中美贸易顺差、中国与欧盟贸易顺差是产生净转移的主要原因。结论主张相关国际协定从排放区位与消费区位相结合的角度制定温室气体减排政策。

关键词: 对外贸易, CO₂ 排放, 内涵能源, 投入产出分析, 中国

Abstract:

Efforts such as the Kyoto Protocol to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that may be linked to climate change account carbon dioxide emission mostly referred to the country-level territories. However, inter-country flows of goods by international trade may cause emissions from local consumption suffered in an exporting county. Therefore, the estimation of carbon dioxide emissions associated with international trade (by excluding the emissions associated with exports and including the emissions associated with imports) will give a more complete picture of responsibilities of various countries for the emissions that cause the climate change. The aim of this study is to explore carbon dioxide emissions associated with international trade of China and their sources regarding the emissions of imports and exports on the results of its total emissions. China is now being regarded as the leading country of carbon dioxide emissions in the world, but how much of its emission reflects the production of goods for export to foreign economies need to be studied seriously. For this study, China's foreign trade data of exports and imports from U.S., EU and Japan by HS from 2000 to 2006 provided by Department of Trade and External Economic Relations Statistics of China were used, and the 98 divisions of HS goods was aggregated into 17 branch divisions according to industrial sector divisions used in China's Statistical Yearbook and China's input-output table. By employing input-output table, embodied energy consumption (energy consumption directly and indirectly caused by intermediary products) and associated carbon dioxide emissions of goods exported from China were calculated. The results show that carbon dioxide emissions embodied in exported goods from China has increased from 0.96 Gt in 2000 to 1.91 Gt in 2006, representing 30-35% of China's total emissions over the period. Based on CO₂ emissions of fuel combustion in different countries, emissions embodied in imported goods to China from different trade partners were also estimated. It points out net carbon dioxide emissions embodied has increased from 0.13 Gt to 0.32 Gt in China-US trade, and 0.056 Gt to 0.227 Gt in China-EU trade, respectively, from 2000 to 2006. Since the Kyoto Protocol restricts emissions only in Annex I countries, there is a scope for Annex I countries to reduce domestic emissions without adjusting final consumption because they can import more goods from non-Annex I countries, for example, China. Finally, it argues improved international accounting methodologies for assigning responsibility for CO₂ emissions must be designed to account for the dynamic nature of integrated international economy.

Key words: international trade, embodied carbon dioxide emission, input-output analysis, China

张晓平. 中国对外贸易产生的CO₂排放区位转移分析[J]. 地理学报, 2009, 64(2): 234-242.

ZHANG Xiao-ping. Carbon Dioxide Emissions Embodied in China's Foreign Trade[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009, 64(2): 234-242.

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中国对外贸易产生的CO₂排放区位转移分析

Carbon Dioxide Emissions Embodied in China's Foreign Trade

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