地理学报

地理学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 67 ›› Issue (10): 1411-1422.doi: 10.11821/xb201210011

• 生态与旅游地理 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于RBF的湖南省土地生态安全动态预警

徐美1, 朱翔1, 刘春腊2   

  1. 1. 湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院, 长沙410081;
    2. 衡阳师范学院资源环境与旅游管理系, 衡阳421008
  • 收稿日期:2011-12-08 修回日期:2012-06-05 出版日期:2012-10-20 发布日期:2012-10-20
  • 通讯作者: 朱翔(1955-),男,北京市人,教授,博士生导师,中国地理学会会员(S110001719M),主要从事区域经济研究。E-mail:zhuxiang882000@yahoo.com.cn
  • 作者简介:徐美(1983-),女,湖南益阳人,博士研究生,中国地理学会会员(S110007725M),主要从事资源开发与区域可持续发展研究。E-mail:xumei2003@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(41071067); 湖南省2011 年研究生科研创新项目(CX2011B190); 湖南省重点学科建设项目(2011001)

Early-warning of Land Ecological Security in Hunan Province Based on RBF

XU Mei1, ZHU Xiang1, LIU Chunla2   

  1. 1. College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China;
    2. Department of Resources, Environment and Tourism Management, Hengyang Normal University, Hengyang 421008, Hunan, China
  • Received:2011-12-08 Revised:2012-06-05 Online:2012-10-20 Published:2012-10-20
  • Supported by:

    National Social Science Foundation of China, No.41071067; Graduate Student Research Innovation Project of 2011 in Hunan, No.CX2011B190; Construction Project of the Key Disciplines in Hunan, No.2011001

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摘要： 基于1996-2010 年湖南省土地生态安全的相关数据, 从压力、状态、响应3 方面构建湖南省土地生态安全预警指标体系, 运用RBF模型对2011-2015 年湖南省土地生态安全演变趋势进行预测, 并结合预警指数和警度标准对1996-2015 年湖南省土地生态安全警情状况进行分析, 结果表明:① RBF模型有较高的模拟精度, 能够较好地拟合2011-2015 年湖南省土地生态安全各系统的发展趋势。② 就各子系统的安全警度而言, 1996-2010 年湖南省土地生态安全的压力和状态系统的警度呈波动上升趋势, 响应系统的警度呈下降趋势, 2011-2015 年, 压力系统将逐步由“中警”(黄灯) 转变为“重警”(橙灯), 状态系统将处于“中警”(黄灯) 状态, 响应系统将处于“无警”(绿灯) 状态。③ 总体而言, 1996-2010 年, 湖南省土地生态安全警度呈略有下降态势, 2011-2015 年, 预警指数将处于0.42 左右, 警度将处于“中警”(黄灯) 状态。④ 影响湖南省土地生态安全的主要因素包括农业经济比重、建设占用耕地面积量、自然灾害受灾面积比重、人均建设用地面积、第三产业比重、自然保护区面积比重等, 是今后调控的重点。

关键词: 土地生态安全, 预警, RBF, 湖南省

Abstract: Based on the related data of land ecological security of Hunan Province from 1996 to 2010, this paper constructed a land ecological security early-warning index system for Hunan Province from three aspects which were pressure, state and response. And then it used the RBF model to make a prediction for land ecological security development trend of Hunan Province in 2011-2015, and at last made a warning analysis of the land ecological security of the province from 1996 to 2015 according to the early-warning index and warning degree standards. The results are shown as follows. (1) RBF model has a relatively high simulation accuracy, which can well fit the land ecological security system's development trends of Hunan Province in 2011-2015. (2) In terms of each subsystem's warning degree, the early-warning index of the pressure system showed an upward trend with fluctuations in 1996-2010, and the warning degree rose from light alarm to moderate alarm, the indicator light turned from blue lamp to yellow lamp gradually; the early-warning index will continue to rise from moderate alarm (yellow lamp) to heavy alarm (orange lamp) with fluctuations in 2011-2015. As for the state system, its early-warning index showed an upward trend with fluctuations in 1996-2010, although it remained in the moderate alarm (yellow lamp) state, alert should be maintained on the situation; in 2011-2015, the signs of serious deterioration will not occur because of the further effects and regulation of the response system, and it will remain at the level of 2008-2010. As for the response system, it showed a downward trend in 1996-2010, from which the state of huge alarm (red lamp) plummeted to no alarm (green lamp); its early-warning index will decline in 2011-2015 which will keep the state of green lamp and be increasingly close to the lower limit of the state of no alarm. (3) Overall, in 1996-2010, the land ecological security warning degree of Hunan Province showed a slight downward trend. In 2011-2015, its early-warning index will be about 0.42, and warning degree will keep in the state of moderate alarm (yellow lamp). (4) The main factors that influence the land ecological security of Hunan Province include the proportion of agricultural economy, the amount of farmland used for construction, the proportion of natural disaster-affected area, per capita area of construction land, the proportion of the tertiary industry, and the proportion of nature reserves. These are the focus of land ecological security regulation in the future.

Key words: land ecological security, early-warning, RBF, Hunan Province