地理学报 ›› 2009, Vol. 64 ›› Issue (8): 935-944.doi: 10.11821/xb200908005

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于经济模拟的中国能源消费与碳排放高峰预测

朱永彬1, 王铮1,2,3, 庞丽4, 王丽娟5, 邹秀萍2   

  1. 1. 华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室; 2. 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所; 3. 中国科技大学管理学院; 4. 清华大学; 5. 中国科学院研究生院
  • 收稿日期:2008-09-05 修回日期:2009-02-17 出版日期:2009-08-20 发布日期:2009-08-20
  • 通讯作者: 王铮 (1954-), 男, 云南人, 教授, 博士生导师, 中国地理学会会员。主要从事经济计算、地理计算、区域科学与管理研究。E-mail: wangzheng@mail.casipm.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:朱永彬 (1983-), 男, 博士生, 主要研究方向为计算地理学。E-mail: zhuyongbin1025@hotmail.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(40771076); 中国科学院知识创新工程项目(KZCX2-YW-325); 国家863项目(2008AA12Z204)

Simulation on China's Economy and Prediction on Energy Consumption and Carbon Emission under Optimal Growth Path

ZHU Yongbin1,  WANG Zheng1, 2, 3,  PANG Li4,  WANG Lijuan5,  ZOU Xiuping2   

  1. 1. East China Normal University, Key Laboratory of Geographical Information Science, Ministry of State Education of China, Shanghai 200062, China;
    2. Institute of Policy and Management Science, CAS, Beijing 100080, China;
    3. Management College, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China;
    4. Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
    5. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China
  • Received:2008-09-05 Revised:2009-02-17 Online:2009-08-20 Published:2009-08-20
  • Supported by:

    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40771076; Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.KZCX2-YW-325; National 863 Program, No.2008AA12Z204

摘要:

能源消费所产生的碳排放是经济发展过程中不可避免的副产品,而且碳排放在大气中的积累会使全球气候不断变暖,因此经济增长与碳排放之间的关系一直是学术界关注的焦点。传统的基于EKC曲线的经济计量学方法一般是对经济与排放历史数据的相关关系研究,不能很好地反映二者之间的动力学机制。为此本文在内生经济增长模型Moon-Sonn基础上进行改进,首先从理论上得到了最优经济增长率与能源强度之间存在倒U曲线关系的必要条件,即能源的产出弹性小于0.5;接着将投入产出分析得到的反映技术进步下的能源强度代入模型,对中国未来经济增长路径进行了预测,同时得到了最优增长路径下的能源消费走势,进而通过对能源消费结构和不同能源品种的碳排放系数的预测和估计,以及对分品种能源碳排放的汇总计算得到了中国未来能源消费所产生的总的碳排放走势。结果显示,在当前技术进步速率下,我国分别在2043年和2040年达到能源消费高峰和碳排放高峰。此外,本文对能源强度不同下降速率对能源消费高峰的影响进行模拟发现,当降速为4.5%5%时,能源高峰将出现在2040年前,此时的人均GDP为10万元左右,与OECD国家的高峰时收入一致;而且分3种情景模拟了可再生能源替代政策对碳排放高峰的影响,发现提高可再生能源的比重可以明显降低碳排放量,但对高峰年份到来的时间影响甚微。

关键词: 内生经济增长, EKC曲线, 能源消费, 碳排放, 中国

Abstract:

The CO2 emission brought about by energy, especially the fossil fuels consumption, is an inevitable by-product in the process of economic development. With the increasing accumulation of greenhouse gases (particularly the CO2), the climate has been becoming warmer. Therefore, the relationship between economic growth and CO2 emission has been paid extreme attention in the academia. Although the conventional methodology of econometrics has the advantage of testifying their correlation based on historic data, it lacks the ability of reflecting the dynamic mechanism between energy input and economic growth, which has two counteracting forces that more energy input will improve the productivity and increase the final output on one hand, but on the other hand it will also require more expenditure on energy purchase, so less remained for capital accumulation hence will deduce the final output. To deal with the weakness of econometrics methodology, this paper introduced an endogenous economic growth model. By modifying the Moon-Sonn model, we obtained the necessary condition of the existence of inverse U-shaped relationship between optimal growth rate and energy intensity, that is, the elasticity of energy in production function should be less than 0.5. Empirically, we predicted the energy intensity under present technology progress rate, which is reflected by the rate of energy efficiency improvement, and put it into the model hence it was predicted of the economic growth path with the according energy consumption under the path; Here the Input-Output analysis was applied to predict the decrease rate of energy intensity, which is 4.23% , lower than the eleventh "five-year plan" objective of 4.365%. Finally, the CO2 emission was obtained by aggregating emission from each type of energy, which requires the prediction on energy consumption structure and the estimation of CO2 emission coefficients of various types of energy. Projection results show that the peak of energy consumption and carbon emission will appear in 2043 and 2040 respectively. Furthermore, this paper also simulated the effect of energy intensity decrease rate on the peak of energy and the according per capita GDP, and constructed three scenarios to simulate the effect of reusable energy substitute policy on the peak of CO2 emission. The former simulation demonstrates a sharp influence, the faster energy intensity drops, the earlier energy consumption peaks with less per capita GDP; when the decrease rate is 4.365%, the energy will peak in 2041, 2 years earlier than the reference with the per capita GDP is 125621 Yuan RMB; when the decrease rate is between 4.5%-5%, the peak year of energy consumption will advance to 2040 or even earlier when the per capita GDP will approximately be 100000 Yuan RMB, much approach the situation of OECD member countries. And the scenario analyses show a dramatic decline of emission volume when the proportion of renewable energy rises, but the reusable energy substitute policy have an insignificant influence on the year when the peak of CO2 emission shows up.

Key words: endogenous economic growth, EKC curve, energy consumption, carbon emission, China