地理学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 76 ›› Issue (5): 1136-1147.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202105007
吴绍洪1,2(), 高江波1, 韦炳干1, 张继权3, 郭桂桢4, 王军5, 邓浩宇1, 刘路路1, 贺山峰6, 许尔琪1
收稿日期:
2020-09-22
修回日期:
2021-03-31
出版日期:
2021-05-25
发布日期:
2021-07-25
作者简介:
吴绍洪(1961-), 男, 广东潮州人, 博士, 研究员, 博士生导师, 主要从事自然地理学综合研究、气候变化影响与灾害风险研究。E-mail: wush@igsnrr.ac.cn
基金资助:
WU Shaohong1,2(), GAO Jiangbo1, WEI Binggan1, ZHANG Jiquan3, GUO Guizhen4, WANG Jun5, DENG Haoyu1, LIU Lulu1, HE Shanfeng6, XU Erqi1
Received:
2020-09-22
Revised:
2021-03-31
Published:
2021-05-25
Online:
2021-07-25
Supported by:
摘要:
全球环境变化和经济快速发展导致自然灾害的增加,已经成为现代人类社会最严重的环境问题之一。面对自然灾害风险防控的严峻形势,人类社会必须建设得足够强大,以应对可能发生的自然灾害风险。在提出“构筑自然灾害韧弹性社会减轻自然灾害风险”的基础上,本文重点分析韧弹性的确切涵义,通过综合灾害防御、损害恢复和应急管控,诠释自然灾害韧弹性社会的内涵、组分和结构;建立自然灾害韧弹性社会的指标体系和定量表征方法,评估案例区自然灾害韧弹性社会的状况;进而针对城乡差异设计建设自然灾害韧弹性社会的途径。依此,系统性地构建了包括概念—结构—指标—途径的自然灾害韧弹性社会理论范式。建设自然灾害韧弹性社会是人类的必然选择,这与社会经济可持续发展高度一致。研究旨在推动综合应对自然灾害风险,探索建设“更强、更安全、更持续”的自然灾害韧弹性社会途径,支撑国家防灾减灾战略转变、实施“关键领域与薄弱环节九大工程”。
吴绍洪, 高江波, 韦炳干, 张继权, 郭桂桢, 王军, 邓浩宇, 刘路路, 贺山峰, 许尔琪. 自然灾害韧弹性社会的理论范式[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(5): 1136-1147.
WU Shaohong, GAO Jiangbo, WEI Binggan, ZHANG Jiquan, GUO Guizhen, WANG Jun, DENG Haoyu, LIU Lulu, HE Shanfeng, XU Erqi. Theoretical paradigm for natural disaster-resilient society[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(5): 1136-1147.
表1
苍南县各乡镇自然灾害韧弹性社会指标与涵义
一级指标 | 二级指标 | 三级指标 | 涵义 |
---|---|---|---|
灾害抵御 | 防备 | 平均每万人拥有病床数 | 医疗救助 |
平均每万人拥有医护人员数量 | |||
医院覆盖率 | |||
储备库覆盖率 | 物资储备 | ||
储备库库容面积 | |||
人均物资储量 | |||
人均避难所面积 | 避难场所 | ||
避难所资金投入 | |||
救灾设备数量 | |||
抗拒 | 堤防工程总长度 | 抗灾工程 | |
50 a重现期堤防长度 | |||
水泵密度 | |||
堤防工程防洪(潮)堤坝比例 | |||
水闸密度 | |||
重现期30 a及以上防洪水闸 | |||
水闸防潮标准 | 建筑设防 | ||
交通网络密度 | 基础设施 | ||
规避 | 绿地面积增长率 | 生态建设 | |
保险赔付率 | 风险转移 | ||
受损恢复 | 生活常态 | 农村居民人均消费性支出 | 消费水平 |
城镇居民人均消费性支出 | |||
生产运转 | 月工业用电量增速 | 经济复苏 | |
月三产生产总值增长率 | |||
战略性新兴产业总产值 | 新兴产业 | ||
社会秩序 | 市政供水能力 | 资源配置 | |
市政供气能力 | |||
供电能力 | |||
网络舆情监控信息情况 | 网络舆情 | ||
灾害信息新闻发布次数 | |||
治安与刑事案件发案率 | 治安管理 | ||
应急管控 | 指挥协调 | 物资运输货车/舟 | 转移安置、物资调配 |
救灾志愿者数量 | |||
应急救灾部门数量 | 部门合作 | ||
应急预案总数量 | 应急预案 | ||
社会参与资金投入 | 政策法规 | ||
灾害管理法律完善程度 | |||
监测预警 | 监测时间分辨率 | 台站观测、移动设备 | |
监测设备覆盖率 | |||
监测装备投入 | |||
预警发布时间分辨率 | 信息发布 | ||
预警发布覆盖率 |
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