自然灾害韧弹性社会的理论范式

doi:10.11821/dlxb202105007

地理学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 76 ›› Issue (5): 1136-1147.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202105007

自然灾害韧弹性社会的理论范式

吴绍洪¹^,²(), 高江波¹, 韦炳干¹, 张继权³, 郭桂桢⁴, 王军⁵, 邓浩宇¹, 刘路路¹, 贺山峰⁶, 许尔琪¹

1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
2.中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京 100049
3.东北师范大学环境学院,长春 130024
4.应急管理部国家减灾中心,北京 100124
5.华东师范大学地理科学学院,上海 200241
6.曲阜师范大学地理与旅游学院,日照 276800

收稿日期:2020-09-22 修回日期:2021-03-31 出版日期:2021-05-25 发布日期:2021-07-25
作者简介:吴绍洪(1961-), 男, 广东潮州人, 博士, 研究员, 博士生导师, 主要从事自然地理学综合研究、气候变化影响与灾害风险研究。E-mail: wush@igsnrr.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1508801);国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1508900);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA19040304)

Theoretical paradigm for natural disaster-resilient society

WU Shaohong¹^,²(), GAO Jiangbo¹, WEI Binggan¹, ZHANG Jiquan³, GUO Guizhen⁴, WANG Jun⁵, DENG Haoyu¹, LIU Lulu¹, HE Shanfeng⁶, XU Erqi¹

1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
2. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3. School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China
4. National Disaster Reduction Center, Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing 100124, China
5. School of Geographical Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
6. School of Geography and Tourism, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao 276826, Shandong, China

Received:2020-09-22 Revised:2021-03-31 Published:2021-05-25 Online:2021-07-25
Supported by:
The National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFC1508801);The National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFC1508900);The Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA19040304)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

全球环境变化和经济快速发展导致自然灾害的增加,已经成为现代人类社会最严重的环境问题之一。面对自然灾害风险防控的严峻形势,人类社会必须建设得足够强大,以应对可能发生的自然灾害风险。在提出“构筑自然灾害韧弹性社会减轻自然灾害风险”的基础上,本文重点分析韧弹性的确切涵义,通过综合灾害防御、损害恢复和应急管控,诠释自然灾害韧弹性社会的内涵、组分和结构;建立自然灾害韧弹性社会的指标体系和定量表征方法,评估案例区自然灾害韧弹性社会的状况;进而针对城乡差异设计建设自然灾害韧弹性社会的途径。依此,系统性地构建了包括概念—结构—指标—途径的自然灾害韧弹性社会理论范式。建设自然灾害韧弹性社会是人类的必然选择,这与社会经济可持续发展高度一致。研究旨在推动综合应对自然灾害风险,探索建设“更强、更安全、更持续”的自然灾害韧弹性社会途径,支撑国家防灾减灾战略转变、实施“关键领域与薄弱环节九大工程”。

关键词: 自然灾害韧弹性, 自然灾害韧弹性社会, 理论范式, 风险管控, 建设路径

Abstract:

The change of global environment and the rapid development of economy have led to the increase of natural disasters, which have become one of the most serious environmental problems in modern human society. Facing the grim situation of natural disaster risk prevention and control, human society should be built strongly enough to deal with natural disaster risks. On the basis of "building a resilient society to reduce natural disaster risks", this paper focuses on analyzing the exact meaning of resilience, and interprets the connotation, composition and structure of natural disaster-resilient society through integrated hazard defense, damage recovery and emergency governance. The index system and quantitative characterization method of the natural disaster-resilient society was established to evaluate the situation of a natural disaster resilient-society in the case area. According to the differences between urban and rural areas, we designed pathways to build a natural disaster-resilient society. Then a theory paradigm of the natural disaster-resilient society, including concept-structure-index-approach, is systematically constructed. It is an inevitable option for human to build a natural disaster-resilient society, which is highly consistent with the sustainable socio-economic development. The research aims at promoting a comprehensive response to natural disaster risks, exploring ways to build a "stronger, safer and more sustainable" natural disaster-resilient society, supporting the transformation of national disaster prevention and reduction strategies, and implementing the "Nine Key Areas and Weak Links Projects".

Key words: natural disaster resilience, natural disaster-resilient society, theoretical paradigm, risk governance, construction strategy

吴绍洪, 高江波, 韦炳干, 张继权, 郭桂桢, 王军, 邓浩宇, 刘路路, 贺山峰, 许尔琪. 自然灾害韧弹性社会的理论范式[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(5): 1136-1147.

WU Shaohong, GAO Jiangbo, WEI Binggan, ZHANG Jiquan, GUO Guizhen, WANG Jun, DENG Haoyu, LIU Lulu, HE Shanfeng, XU Erqi. Theoretical paradigm for natural disaster-resilient society[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(5): 1136-1147.

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一级指标	二级指标	三级指标	涵义
灾害抵御	防备	平均每万人拥有病床数	医疗救助
		平均每万人拥有医护人员数量
		医院覆盖率
		储备库覆盖率	物资储备
		储备库库容面积
		人均物资储量
		人均避难所面积	避难场所
		避难所资金投入
		救灾设备数量
	抗拒	堤防工程总长度	抗灾工程
		50 a重现期堤防长度
		水泵密度
		堤防工程防洪(潮)堤坝比例
		水闸密度
		重现期30 a及以上防洪水闸
		水闸防潮标准	建筑设防
		交通网络密度	基础设施
	规避	绿地面积增长率	生态建设
		保险赔付率	风险转移
受损恢复	生活常态	农村居民人均消费性支出	消费水平
		城镇居民人均消费性支出	消费水平
	生产运转	月工业用电量增速	经济复苏
		月三产生产总值增长率	经济复苏
		战略性新兴产业总产值	新兴产业
	社会秩序	市政供水能力	资源配置
		市政供气能力
		供电能力
		网络舆情监控信息情况	网络舆情
		灾害信息新闻发布次数	网络舆情
		治安与刑事案件发案率	治安管理
应急管控	指挥协调	物资运输货车/舟	转移安置、物资调配
		救灾志愿者数量	转移安置、物资调配
		应急救灾部门数量	部门合作
		应急预案总数量	应急预案
		社会参与资金投入	政策法规
		灾害管理法律完善程度	政策法规
	监测预警	监测时间分辨率	台站观测、移动设备
		监测设备覆盖率
		监测装备投入
		预警发布时间分辨率	信息发布
		预警发布覆盖率	信息发布

自然灾害韧弹性社会的理论范式

Theoretical paradigm for natural disaster-resilient society

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