基于三维四面体模型的西藏资源环境承载力综合评价

doi:10.11821/dlxb202103011

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

资源环境承载力定量评价与综合计量是资源环境承载力研究由分类走向综合的关键技术环节。本文从系统角度出发,提出了“人居环境适宜性分区——资源承载力限制性分类——社会经济发展适应性分等——资源环境承载力警示性分级”的资源环境承载力综合评价的研究思路与技术路线,构建了具有平衡态意义的资源环境承载力综合评价的三维四面体模型,对区域资源环境承载力监测预警机制的建立具有清晰的政策指导意义。基于上述模型方法,以公里格网为基础,以分县为基本单元,开展了西藏自治区的资源环境承载力综合评价。研究表明,西藏3/4左右土地、4/5以上人口所在的县域资源环境综合承载力处于盈余或平衡状态,资源环境综合承载状态良好;人居环境以不适宜和临界适宜为主要特征,社会经济发展水平普遍滞后,人居环境自然适宜性和社会经济发展水平在较大程度上限制了西藏资源环境承载力的发挥及其提升。

关键词: 资源环境承载力, 综合评价, 四面体模型, 监测预警, 西藏

Abstract:

Quantitative evaluation and comprehensive measurement of resource and environmental carrying capacity are the technical keys in the research of resource and environmental carrying capacity from classification to synthesis. From a system perspective, this paper proposes a three-dimensional tetrahedron model with physical meaning to comprehensively evaluate resource and environmental carrying capacity, which is conducted on the structure of "human settlement environment suitability classification - resource and environmental carrying capacity restrictive classification - socioeconomic development adaptability classification - resource and environmental carrying capacity warning classification". Its results have clear policy guidance significance for the establishment of the dynamic-monitoring and early-warning mechanism for regional resource and environmental carrying capacity. Based on the above methods, this research, taking Tibet Autonomous Region as an example and using 1-km gridded data, quantitatively assessed regional resource and environmental carrying capacity at county level. The results show that there were about 3/4 areas in good condition of resources and environmental carrying status (surplus or balanced state), with more than 4/5 of population; the human settlement environment in Tibet was mainly characterized by unsuitability and critical suitability, while the socioeconomic development level there generally lagged behind. Within this context, we suggest that human settlement environment suitability and socioeconomic development level have greatly restricted the performance and improvement of resource and environmental carrying capacity in Tibet.

Key words: resource and environmental carrying capacity, comprehensive evaluation, tetrahedral model, monitoring and warning, Tibet

封志明, 游珍, 杨艳昭, 施慧. 基于三维四面体模型的西藏资源环境承载力综合评价[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(3): 645-662.

FENG Zhiming, YOU Zhen, YANG Yanzhao, SHI Hui. Comprehensive evaluation of resource and environment carrying capacity of Tibet based on a three-dimensional tetrahedron model[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(3): 645-662.

图/表 32

图1

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表1

人居环境各分项指数的计算方法列表

指标名称	计算公式	变量解释
地形起伏度	$RDLS = ALT / 1000 + {[Max (H) - Min (H)] × [1 - P (A) / A]} / 500$	RDLS为地形起伏度;ALT为以某一栅格单元为中心一定区域内的平均海拔;Max(H)和Min(H)分别为该区域内的最高与最低海拔;P(A)为区域内的平地面积;A为区域总面积。
地被指数	$L T i = ∑ i 25 L i × A i / A$ $LVI = (NNDVI × NL T i) / 2$	LT_i为以某一栅格单元为中心一定区域的土地利用类型指数;L_i为该区域内的第i种土地利用类型;A_i为该区域内第i种土地利用类型的面积;A为区域总面积;LVI为地被指数;NNDVI为该单元格标准化后的归一化植被指数;NLT_i为归一化后的土地利用类型指数。
水文指数	$WRI = αP + βWa + λL$	WRI为水文指数;P为归一化的降水量;Wa为归一化的水网密度;L为归一化的湖泊密度;α、β和λ分别为降水、水网与湖泊的权重。
温湿指数	$THI = 1.8 t - 0.55 (1 - f) (1.8 t - 26)$	THI为温湿指数;t为月均温;f为月均空气相对湿度。

表1

图3

表2

表3

资源承载各分项指数的计算方法列表

指标名称	计算公式	变量解释
土地资源承载指数	$LCI = Pa / LCC$ $LCC = En / Enpc$	LCI为土地资源承载指数;Pa为现实人口数量;LCC为土地资源现实承载力或土地资源承载潜力;En为耕地资源产品转换为热量总量,Enpc人均热量摄入标准,现实承载力以2521 kcal 人/天计。
水资源承载指数	$WCI = Pa / WCC$ $WCC = W / Wpc$	WCI为水资源承载指数;Pa为现实人口数量;WCC为水资源承载力;W为水资源可利用量;Wpc为人均综合用水量。
生态承载指数	$ECI = Pa / ECC$ $ECC = SNPP / (CNP P ave × 10000)$	ECI为生态承载指数;Pa为现实人口数量;ECC为生态承载力;SNPP代表生态供给总量;CNPP_ave代表人均生态消耗量。

表3

图4

表4

表5

表6

社会经济各分项指数的计算方法列表

指标名称	计算公式	变量解释
人类发展指数	$HDI = (LEI + EI + II) / 3$ $EI = 2 / 3 × ALI + 1 / 3 × GEI$	HDI为人类发展指数;LEI为预期寿命;EI为教育指数;II为人均GDP;ALI为成人识字率;GEI为小学、中学、大学综合入学率。
交通通达指数	$TAI = 0.5 × (TDI + TCI)$ $TDI = r 1 RDI + r 2 RWDI + r 3 WDI r 1 + r 2 + r 3$ $TCI = 0.53 × SDRI + 0.20 × SDRWI + 0.20 × SDAI + 0.07 × SDPI$	TAI为交通通达指数;TDI为交通密度指数;TCI为交通便捷指数;r₁,r₂和r₃分别为道路密度指数（RDI）、铁路密度指数（RWDI）和水路密度指数（WDI）与人口密度之间的相关系数;SDRI为中心点到道路最短距离指数;SDRWI为中心点到铁路最短距离指数;SDAI为中心点到机场最短距离指数;SDPI为中心点到港口最短距离指数。
城市化指数	$UI = 0.75 × UPI + 0.25 × ULI$	UI为城市化指数;UPI为归一化后的人口城市化率;ULI为归一化后的土地城市化率。

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表12

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人居环境适宜性分区	取值范围
不适宜地区	HSI < 1-0.5STD
临界适宜地区	1-0.5STD ≤ HSI < 1+0.5STD
适宜地区	HSI ≥ 1+0.5STD

城市化进程阶段	城镇人口占比	W_L	W_W	W_E
初期阶段	[0, 30%]	0.5	0.3	0.2
加速阶段	(30%, 70%]	1/3	1/3	1/3
后期阶段	(70%, 100%]	0.2	0.5	0.3

资源环境承载力限制性分类	取值范围
超载	RCI < 0.9
平衡	0.9 ≤ RCI < 1.1
盈余	RCI ≥ 1.1

社会经济发展适应性分等	取值范围
社会经济发展低水平地区	SDI < 1-0.5STD
社会经济发展中等地区	1-0.5STD ≤ SDI < 1+0.5STD
社会经济相对发达地区	SDI ≥ 1+0.5STD

资源环境综合承载力警示性分级	取值范围
超载	PREDI < 0.9
平衡	0.9 ≤ PREDI < 1.1
盈余	PREDI ≥ 1.1