地理学报

地理学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 73 ›› Issue (7): 1214-1225.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201807003

• 理论前沿 • 上一篇    下一篇

“一带一路”陆域地理格局与环境变化风险

吴绍洪1,2(),刘路路1,2,刘燕华1,2(),高江波1,戴尔阜1,2,冯爱青3   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
    2. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
    3. 中国气象局国家气候中心,北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2017-08-28 出版日期:2018-07-25 发布日期:2018-07-13
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金重点项目(41530749);中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所特色所培育项目“一带一路”建设决策支持研究

Geographical patterns and environmental change risks in terrestrial areas of the Belt and Road

WU Shaohong1,2(),LIU Lulu1,2,LIU Yanhua1,2(),GAO Jiangbo1,DAI Erfu1,2,FENG Aiqing3   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2017-08-28 Published:2018-07-25 Online:2018-07-13
  • Supported by:
    Key Projects of National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41530749;Scientific Research Cultivation Project of the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS: The Decision Support Research of the Belt and Road Initiative

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摘要：

“一带一路”建设是中国在新时期推动国际合作共赢的倡议,旨在打造绿色、健康、智力、和平丝绸之路,保障“一带一路”沿线各国人民共同发展。系统分析“一带一路”沿线国家环境特征、演化趋势与未来风险格局,是“一带一路”建设的科学基础。应用遥感监测、统计资料,探究“一带一路”陆域气候、地形、土壤、水文、植被环境要素空间分布特征和时空差异;依据经典综合自然区划的方法论,将“一带一路”陆域划分为中东欧寒冷湿润区、蒙俄寒冷干旱区、中亚西亚干旱区、东南亚温暖湿润区、巴基斯坦干旱区、孟印缅温暖湿润区、中国东部季风区、中国西北干旱区和青藏高原区等9个区域。结合模型模拟、情景预估等技术手段,将自然灾害损失评估方法论用于预估未来30年高温热浪、干旱和洪涝等突发性极端事件的灾害风险,以趋势—基线对比方法预估宏观生态系统、粮食生产等渐变事件的风险。结果显示,亚欧大陆西部将是暖干趋势;青藏高原两侧区域高温热浪高风险;中东欧寒冷湿润区东部干旱高风险;孟印缅温暖湿润区和中国东部季风区洪涝高风险;荒漠边缘区域为生态脆弱高风险区;中低纬区域为粮食减产高风险区。

关键词: “一带一路”, 地理格局, 环境变化, 风险

Abstract:

Construction of the Belt and Road, an advocacy of China to promote win-win international cooperation in the new era, aims at building green, healthy, intellectual and peaceful Silk Road and ensuring joint development with the people of the countries along the Belt and Road. Systematic analysis on environmental characteristics, evolutionary tendency and future risk pattern is a scientific fundamental of sustainable development for the construction. Based on remote sensing monitoring and statistical analysis, this paper studies spatial-temporal characteristics of climate, topography, soil, hydrology, vegetation cover and production of terrestrial ecosystems. Taking the methodology of the classical integrated natural regionalization, the region is delineated into 9 sub-regions: Central and Eastern Europe, Mongolia and Russia, Central and Western Asia, Southeastern Asia, Pakistan, Bangladesh-India-Myanmar, Eastern China, Northwestern China and Tibetan Plateau. By combining modeling simulation with scenario projections, natural disaster assessment methodology is used to assess the risk of abrupt extreme events such as heat waves, droughts and floods in the next 30 years. And trend-baseline comparison method is applied to assess the risk of gradual change events in macro-ecosystems, food production, etc. Results show that, on the basis of the regional framework, the western Eurasia would show a warming trend; both sides of Tibetan Plateau are in high temperature and heat waves risk; cold-wet region of central and eastern Europe in high drought risk; monsoon area of Bangladesh, India and Myanmar as well as eastern China in high risk of flooding; the desert margin areas in high ecological fragile risk; the middle and low latitude areas in high risk of grain production.

Key words: the Belt and Road, geographical patterns, environmental change, risks