• 模拟研究 •

基于IO-SDA模型的新疆能源消费碳排放影响机理分析

1. 1. 广州地理研究所 广东省地理空间信息技术与应用公共实验室,广州 510070
2. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,乌鲁木齐 830011
3. 新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,乌鲁木齐 830054
• 收稿日期:2015-09-25 修回日期:2016-03-18 出版日期:2016-07-25 发布日期:2016-07-25
• 作者简介:

作者简介：王长建(1986-), 男, 河南南阳人, 博士, 助理研究员, 中国地理学会会员(S110010114M), 主要从事能源地理、区域可持续发展研究。E-mail: wwwangcj@126.com

• 基金资助:
国家自然科学基金青年基金(41501144);广东省科学院引进高层次领军人才专项资金项目(2016GDASRC-0101);广东省科学院平台环境与能力建设专项资金项目(2016GDASPT-0210)

Influencing mechanism of energy-related carbon emissions in Xinjiang based on IO-SDA model

Changjian WANG1(), Xiaolei ZHANG2, Hongou ZHANG1, Fei WANG3

1. 1. Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangdong Open Laboratory of Geospatial Information Technology and Application, Guangzhou 510070, China
2. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, CAS, Urumqi 830011, China
3. College of Geography Science and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi 830054, China
• Received:2015-09-25 Revised:2016-03-18 Published:2016-07-25 Online:2016-07-25
• Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41501144;The High-level Leading Talent Introduction Program of GDAS, No.2016GDASRC-0101;The Scientific Platform and Innovation Capability Construction Program of GDAS, No.2016GDASPT-0210]

Abstract:

Global warming and climate change are issues that have aroused widespread attention, and the need for a transition to a low-carbon economy has become the consensus of the international community. China has become one of the world's largest energy consumers, as well as one of the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases. This further highlights the importance and urgency of research on carbon emissions from energy consumption. Based on regional perspectives of the impacts of carbon emissions, the analysis of mechanisms responsible for carbon emissions has become an important research topic. Xinjiang, an important Chinese energy production base, is currently going through a period of strategic opportunities for rapid development. It is critical to ensure stable socioeconomic development as well as to achieve energy savings and meeting emission reductions targets, thus the harmonious development of "society-economy-energy-environment," is the key issue currently facing the region. This study, based on the input-output theory, presents a structural decomposition analysis of the factors affecting energy consumption and carbon emissions in Xinjiang from 1997-2007. This analysis employs a hybrid input-output analysis framework of "energy-economy-carbon emissions," and uses an extended IO-SDA model. The data for this study come from the Xinjiang input-output table for 1997-2002-2007. Population, economic, and energy source data are derived from the Statistical Yearbook of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. (1) Xinjiang's carbon emissions from energy consumption increased from 20.70 million tons in 1997 to 40.34 million tons in 2007; carbon emissions growth was mainly concentrated in the production and processing of energy resources, the mining of mineral resources, and the processing industry. (2) The analysis of the direct effects of the influencing factors on carbon emissions shows that the change in per capita GDP, final demand structure, population scale, and production structure were the important factors causing an increase in carbon emissions, while the decrease in carbon emission intensity during this period was an important factor in stopping the growth of carbon emissions. This shows that while Xinjiang's economy and population were growing, the economic structure had not been effectively optimized and production technology had not been improved, which results in a rapid growth of carbon emissions from energy consumption. (3) An analysis of the indirect effects of the factors influencing carbon emissions shows that inter-provincial transfers, gross fixed capital formation, and consumption by urban residents had significant influence on the changes in carbon emissions from energy consumption in Xinjiang. (4) The growth of investments in fixed assets of carbon-intensive industry sectors, as well as the growth of inter-provincial transfers of energy resource products, makes the transfer effect of inter-area "implicit carbon" very significant.