基于家庭区位需求的城市住房价格模拟分析

doi:10.11821/dlxb201610006

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目前关于城市住房价格异质性和影响因素研究多侧重于空间位置分析,从城市系统角度刻画住房价格分异现象有待进一步探索。根据“土地利用—交通相互作用理论”,城市空间的发展过程是各类活动通过交通相互作用的过程,本文构建了交通可达性模型,综合全市经济活动空间分布和交通网络评价城市区位条件,并以北京为例,从就业、教育、消费、医疗服务等各方面评价了城市区位条件,在此基础上依据家庭成员结构,模拟分析了家庭区位需求对住房价格的影响。案例研究表明,本模型对房价的模拟可以在全市范围内达到很好的效果;家庭的区位选择决定着住房价格的空间格局;各类活动中就业对北京市房价分布影响最为显著,其次是消费、教育,而医疗服务对住房价格影响相对较弱。此外,本文所提出的模型系统阐述了城市经济活动分布格局对住房价格的影响,经济活动分布发生变化时模拟结果随之变化,因此,本模型可以进一步拓展用于“以业带人”政策实验,模拟分析疏散各类经济活动后住房价格的变化,也为城市房价及土地市场分析研究提供模型方法上的参考。

关键词: 模型模拟, 交通可达性, 住房价格, 家庭, 经济活动, 出行

Abstract:

Existing studies on the heterogeneities and determinants of urban housing price have put overwhelming emphasis on the 'location theory', which is generally descriptive rather than modeling in nature. More research which can systematically explore the spatial heterogeneities of urban housing price is needed. Given that housing price is, to some extent, the reflection of household activity demand, the paper therefore attempts to model urban housing price from this perspective on the basis of urban transport-land use interaction model. Taking Beijing as an empirical case, this research first develops a new measurement of accessibility which can directly depict the cost and possibilities to access opportunities of different activities such as employments, educational, shopping and medical services. According to the composition of different households and their different demands for activities, the paper then analyzes the relations between urban housing price and these demands. The empirical results demonstrate that the spatial pattern of housing price can be relatively well represented by the regression model. Among the four kinds of accessibilities, employment accessibility is found to be the most profound factor influencing housing price, while the next is followed by shopping, education accessibility. Medical service accessibility demonstrates the least influences on housing price. The approach and method proposed in this paper can well demonstrate how the distributions of different activities influence the spatial pattern of urban housing price and therefore have the potential to simulate the results of various urban land use policies, such as 'Decentralization Policies'. Finally, the policy implications of the model are discussed at the end of the paper.

Key words: modeling, accessibility, housing price, household, activity, travel

牛方曲, 刘卫东, 冯建喜. 基于家庭区位需求的城市住房价格模拟分析[J]. 地理学报, 2016, 71(10): 1731-1740.

NIU Fangqu,LIU Weidong,FENG Jianxi. Modeling urban housing price: The perspective of household activity demand[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(10): 1731-1740.

图/表 6

图1

图2

表1

表2

图3

表3

参考文献 26

[1]	Rosen S.Hedonic prices and implicit markets: Product differentiation in pure competition. Journal of Polital Economy, 1974, 82(1): 34-55. doi: 10.1086/260169
[2]	Thunen V, Heinrich J. The Isolated State, Hamburg: Perthes, 1826. English Translation, Oxford: Pergamon, 1966 (Translated by Wartenburg C M, 1966).
[3]	Krugman P.The Self-Organizing Economy. Malden, MA: Blackwell, 1996.
[4]	Alonso W.Location and Land Use. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1964
[5]	Gao Xiaolu.Size effect of housing price and size standard in Beijing. Geographical Research, 2010, 29(3): 500-509. doi: 10.11821/yj2010030013
	[高晓路. 北京市住宅价格的影响因素及适宜居住面积标准. 地理研究, 2010, 29(3): 500-509.] doi: 10.11821/yj2010030013
[6]	Wen Haizhen, Li Xuning, Zhang Ling.Impacts of the urban landscape on the housing price: A case study in Hangzhou. Geographical Research, 2012, 31(10): 1806-1814. doi: 10.11821/yj2012100007
	[温海珍, 李旭宁, 张凌. 城市景观对住宅价格的影响: 以杭州市为例. 地理研究, 2012, 31(10): 1806-1814.] doi: 10.11821/yj2012100007
[7]	Li Xun, Fu Wenying.Investigation of the capitalization of municipal government infrastructure investment on housing market: Hedonic model based on Guangzhou housing price data. Geographical Research, 2010, 29(7): 1269-1280.
	[李郇, 符文颖. 城市政府基础设施投资在住宅市场的资本化考察: 基于广州价格数据的Hedonic模型构建. 地理研究, 2010, 29(7): 1269-1280.]
[8]	Shi Yishao, Zhang Rui.Temporal-spatial impact effects of large-scale parks on residential prices: Exemplified by the Huangxing Park in Shanghai. Geographical Research, 2010, 29(3): 510-520. doi: 10.11821/yj2010030014
	[石忆邵, 张蕊. 大型公园绿地对住宅价格的时空影响效应: 以上海市黄兴公园绿地为例. 地理研究, 2010, 29(3): 510-520.] doi: 10.11821/yj2010030014
[9]	Yu Jianhui, Zhang Wenzhong, Dong Guanpeng.Spatial heterogeneity in the attributes prices of residential landin Beijing. Geographical Research, 2013, 32(6): 1113-1120. doi: 10.11821/yj2013060015
	[余建辉, 张文忠, 董冠鹏. 北京市居住用地特征价格的空间分异特征. 地理研究, 2013, 32(6): 1113-1120.] doi: 10.11821/yj2013060015
[10]	Feng Changchun, Li Weixuan, Zhao Fanfan.Influence of rail transit on nearby commodity housing prices: A case study of Beijing Subway Line Five. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 66(8): 1055-1062. doi: 10.11821/xb201108005
	[冯长春, 李维瑄, 赵蕃蕃. 轨道交通对其沿线商品住宅价格的影响分析: 以北京地铁5号线为例. 地理学报, 2010, 66(8): 1055-1062.] doi: 10.11821/xb201108005
[11]	Dong Guanpeng, Zhang Wenzhong, Wu Wenjie, et al.Spatial heterogeneity in determinants of residential land price: Simulation and prediction. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(6): 750-760. doi: 10.11821/xb201106004
	[董冠鹏, 张文忠, 武文杰, 等. 北京城市住宅土地市场空间异质性模拟与预测. 地理学报, 2011, 66(6): 750-760.] doi: 10.11821/xb201106004
[12]	Gu Yizhen, Zheng Siqi.The impacts of rail transit on property values and land development intensity: The case of No.13 Line in Beijing. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(2): 213-223. doi: 10.11821/xb201002008
	[谷一桢, 郑思齐. 轨道交通对住宅价格和土地开发强度的影响: 以北京市13号线为例. 地理学报, 2010, 65(2): 213-223.] doi: 10.11821/xb201002008
[13]	Gatzlaff D H, Smith M T.The impact of the Miami metrorail on the value of residences near station locations. Land Economics, 1993, 69(1): 54-66. doi: 10.2307/3146278
[14]	Cervero R, Landis J.Assessing the impacts of urban rail transit on local real estate markets using quasi-experimental comparisons. Transportation Research A, 1993, 27(1): 13-22. doi: 10.1016/0965-8564(93)90013-B
[15]	Koutsopoulos K C.The impact of mass transit on residential property values. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 1977, 67(4): 564. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-8306.1977.tb01162.x
[16]	Benjamin J D, Sirmans G S.Mass transportation, apartment rent and property values. Journal of Real Estate Research, 1996, 12(1): 1-8.
[17]	Lee Cockerill, Denise Stanley.How will the centerline affect property values in Orange County. Institute of Economic and Environmental Studies, California State University-Fullerton, 2002.
[18]	Weinstein B L, Clower T L.An assessment of the DART LRT on taxable property valuation and transit oriented development. Center for Economic Development and Research, University of North Texas, September 2002.
[19]	Tse C Y, Chan W H.Estimating the commuting cost and commuting time property price gradients. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2003, 33: 745-767. doi: 10.1016/S0166-0462(03)00011-5
[20]	Zheng S, Kahn M E.Land and residential property markets in a booming economy: New evidence from Beijing. Journal of Urban Economics, 2008, 63: 743-757. doi: 10.1016/j.jue.2007.04.010
[21]	Ding W, Zheng S, Guo X.Value of access to jobs and amenities: Evidence from new residential properties in Beijing. Tsinghua Science and Technology, 2010, 15(5): 595-603. doi: 10.1016/S1007-0214(10)70106-1
[22]	Hansen W G.How accessibility shapes land use. Journal of the American Institute of Planners, 1959, 25: 73-76. doi: 10.1080/01944365908978307
[23]	Lowry I S.A Model of Metropolis[M] RM-4035-RC. Santa Monica CA: Rand Corp., 1964.
[24]	Wegener M.Overview of land-use transport models//Hensher D A, Button K. Transport Geography and Spatial Systems. Oxford: Elsevier, 2004: 127-146.
[25]	Torrens P M.How land-use transportation models work. London: Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, 2000.
[26]	McFadden D. Modelling the choice of residential location//Karlquist Aet al. Spatial Interaction Theory and Residential Location. Amsterdam: North Holland, 1978: 75-96.

家庭类型	家庭比重(%)	儿童(人/户)	工作人口(人/户)	退休人口(人/户)
一代户	50.4	0.34	1.34	0.16
二代户	39.4	0.71	2.71	0.25
三代户	10.1	1.09	4.11	0.32
四代及以上户	0.2	1.47	5.56	0.32

家庭类型	就业权重	教育权重	消费权重	医疗服务权重
一代户	58.15	14.82	3.68	0.32
二代户	117.66	30.99	7.35	0.50
三代户	178.50	47.10	11.03	0.64
四代及以上户	241.26	63.87	14.71	0.65

变量	变量描述	指数	指数值	T检验
HACC_i_{, 1}	区块i对一代户的家庭可达性	m1	0.002	不显著
HACC_i_{, 2}	区块i对二代户的家庭可达性	m2	排除	不显著
HACC_i_{, 3}	区块i对三代户的家庭可达性	m3	0.004	不显著
HACC_i_{, 4}	区块i对四代及以上户的家庭可达性	m4	0.74	17.20**