地理学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 71 ›› Issue (1): 152-165.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201601012
黄婕1,2(), 高路1,2,3(
), 陈兴伟1,2,3, 陈莹1,2,3, 刘梅冰2,3
收稿日期:
2015-08-28
修回日期:
2015-11-23
出版日期:
2016-01-31
发布日期:
2016-01-15
作者简介:
作者简介:黄婕(1990-), 女, 安徽合肥人, 硕士, 主要从事极端气候等方面的研究.E-mail:
基金资助:
HUANG Jie1,2(), GAO Lu1,2,3(
), CHEN Xingwei1,2,3, CHEN Ying1,2,3, LIU Meibing2,3
Received:
2015-08-28
Revised:
2015-11-23
Published:
2016-01-31
Online:
2016-01-15
Supported by:
摘要:
选取东南沿海五省(市)(上海,浙江,福建,广东和海南)79个站点1960-2012年前汛期(4-6月)的降水极值序列,将广义可加模型(GAMLSS)引入非平稳降水频率分析中,分析了降水极值的变化特征;运用主成分分析法分别构建综合气候指数和以温室气体排放量为代表的人类活动指数,同时考虑两类指数对降水极值序列变化特征的影响,运用贡献分析法和GAMLSS模型分析了气候因子和人类活动因子对降水极值变化的影响机制.结果表明:① 东南沿海降水极值增加趋势显著,变异性明显增强的区域主要集中在浙江东北部,广东中北部和西部沿海,福建东部等地区;② 人类活动的加剧与降水极值的变化显著相关,尤其在社会经济发达地区,在社会经济快速发展阶段(1986-2012年)人类活动对极端降水的贡献要明显大于发展缓慢阶段(1960-1985年),浙江和广东两省尤为突出;③ 浙江省东北部,福建省大部,广东西部沿海以及中北部地区是极端降水的高风险区,需加强对极端降水及其次生灾害的风险防范.
黄婕, 高路, 陈兴伟, 陈莹, 刘梅冰. 东南沿海前汛期降水极值变化特征及归因分析[J]. 地理学报, 2016, 71(1): 152-165.
HUANG Jie,GAO Lu,CHEN Xingwei,CHEN Ying,LIU Meibing. Variation of extreme precipitation and its causes during the first rainy season in the southeast coastal region of China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(1): 152-165.
表2
东南沿海代表站点GAMLSS模型拟合参数及拟合残差
站点 | 最优分布 | AIC值 | 均值 | 方差 | 偏态系数 | 峰度系数 | Filliben系数 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
杭州 | IGAMMA | 487.63 | 0.003 | 1.01 | -0.03 | 1.88 | 0.984 |
浦城 | IGAMMA | 514.22 | 0.008 | 1.01 | -0.18 | 2.29 | 0.992 |
韶关 | IG | 516.03 | -0.015 | 1.01 | -0.10 | 2.37 | 0.996 |
增城 | IG | 517.38 | 0.006 | 1.02 | 0.03 | 2.04 | 0.984 |
阳江 | SN2 | 620.74 | -0.151 | 1.17 | 0.34 | 2.15 | 0.983 |
高要 | IG | 531.01 | 0.017 | 1.03 | 0.15 | 2.29 | 0.995 |
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