东南沿海前汛期降水极值变化特征及归因分析

doi:10.11821/dlxb201601012

地理学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 71 ›› Issue (1): 152-165.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201601012

东南沿海前汛期降水极值变化特征及归因分析

黄婕^1,²(), 高路^1,^2,³(), 陈兴伟^1,^2,³, 陈莹^1,^2,³, 刘梅冰^2,³

1. 福建师范大学地理研究所,福州 350007
2. 福建师范大学地理科学学院,福州 350007
3. 福建省陆地灾害监测评估工程技术研究中心,福州 350007

收稿日期:2015-08-28 修回日期:2015-11-23 出版日期:2016-01-31 发布日期:2016-01-15
作者简介:
作者简介:黄婕(1990-), 女, 安徽合肥人, 硕士, 主要从事极端气候等方面的研究.E-mail: rubycat1990@sina.com
基金资助:
福建省科技厅省属公益类科研专项(2014R1034-6);国家自然科学基金项目(41301031, 41501106);教育部留学回国人员科研启动基金(2014-1685);福建省教育厅A类项目(JA14083)

Variation of extreme precipitation and its causes during the first rainy season in the southeast coastal region of China

HUANG Jie^1,²(), GAO Lu^1,^2,³(), CHEN Xingwei^1,^2,³, CHEN Ying^1,^2,³, LIU Meibing^2,³

1. Institute of Geography, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China
2. College of Geographical Science, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China
3. Fujian Provincial Engineering Research Center for Monitoring and Assessing Terrestrial Disasters, Fuzhou 350007, China

Received:2015-08-28 Revised:2015-11-23 Published:2016-01-31 Online:2016-01-15
Supported by:
Non-Profit Special Scientific Project, Fujian Provincial Department of Science & Technology, No.2014R1034-6;National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41301031, No.41501106;Scientific Research Foundation for Returned Scholars, Ministry of Education of China, No.2014-1685;Scientific Project (Type A), The Education Department of Fujian Province, No.JA14083

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

选取东南沿海五省(市)(上海,浙江,福建,广东和海南)79个站点1960-2012年前汛期(4-6月)的降水极值序列,将广义可加模型(GAMLSS)引入非平稳降水频率分析中,分析了降水极值的变化特征;运用主成分分析法分别构建综合气候指数和以温室气体排放量为代表的人类活动指数,同时考虑两类指数对降水极值序列变化特征的影响,运用贡献分析法和GAMLSS模型分析了气候因子和人类活动因子对降水极值变化的影响机制.结果表明:① 东南沿海降水极值增加趋势显著,变异性明显增强的区域主要集中在浙江东北部,广东中北部和西部沿海,福建东部等地区;② 人类活动的加剧与降水极值的变化显著相关,尤其在社会经济发达地区,在社会经济快速发展阶段(1986-2012年)人类活动对极端降水的贡献要明显大于发展缓慢阶段(1960-1985年),浙江和广东两省尤为突出;③ 浙江省东北部,福建省大部,广东西部沿海以及中北部地区是极端降水的高风险区,需加强对极端降水及其次生灾害的风险防范.

关键词: 极端降水, 非平稳性, 前汛期, 灾害风险, 东南沿海

Abstract:

This study analyzed the variation of extreme precipitation by introducing Generalized Additive Models in Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS) Model in the non-stationary frequency analysis based on the precipitation extreme series in the first rainy season (April, May, June) in the period of 1960-2012 derived from 79 meteorological stations in the southeast coastal region of China which covers Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong and Hainan. The greenhouse gas emissions index represented by human activities and comprehensive climatic index were built by principal component analysis (PCA). Simultaneously, contribution analysis method and GAMLSS model are applied to identify the impact of climate change and human activities on precipitation extremes considering both factors. The results show that: (1) The areas with significant increase and strong enhanced variation of precipitation extremes are mainly located in the northeast of Zhejiang, central-northern and western coastal Guangdong, and eastern Fujian. (2) There is a significant correlation between human activity increase and precipitation extreme variability, especially in the developed areas. The contribution of human activity to precipitation extremes in the stage of rapid socio-economic development (1986-2012) is much greater than that in the stage of slow socio-economic development (1960-1985), especially in Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces. (3) The northeast of Zhejiang, much of Fujian and the central-northern and western coastal Guangdong are high risk areas in terms of extreme precipitation. Thus, we should strengthen the risk prevention for extreme precipitation and its secondary disasters.

Key words: extreme precipitation, non-stationary, first rainy season, disaster risk, the southeast coastal region of China

黄婕, 高路, 陈兴伟, 陈莹, 刘梅冰. 东南沿海前汛期降水极值变化特征及归因分析[J]. 地理学报, 2016, 71(1): 152-165.

HUANG Jie,GAO Lu,CHEN Xingwei,CHEN Ying,LIU Meibing. Variation of extreme precipitation and its causes during the first rainy season in the southeast coastal region of China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(1): 152-165.

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气候指数	WP	NPO	PDO	AO	SOI	Nino 3	综合指数
最小相关系数	-0.39	-0.29	-0.35	-0.32	-0.30	-0.28	0.03
最大相关系数	0.29	0.33	0.25	0.29	0.41	0.52	0.50
相关性显著站点个数	6	5	4	7	7	7	25

站点	最优分布	AIC值	均值	方差	偏态系数	峰度系数	Filliben系数
杭州	IGAMMA	487.63	0.003	1.01	-0.03	1.88	0.984
浦城	IGAMMA	514.22	0.008	1.01	-0.18	2.29	0.992
韶关	IG	516.03	-0.015	1.01	-0.10	2.37	0.996
增城	IG	517.38	0.006	1.02	0.03	2.04	0.984
阳江	SN2	620.74	-0.151	1.17	0.34	2.15	0.983
高要	IG	531.01	0.017	1.03	0.15	2.29	0.995

东南沿海前汛期降水极值变化特征及归因分析

Variation of extreme precipitation and its causes during the first rainy season in the southeast coastal region of China

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