地理学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 70 ›› Issue (9): 1463-1476.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201509009
收稿日期:
2015-02-03
修回日期:
2015-05-09
出版日期:
2015-09-20
发布日期:
2015-10-29
作者简介:
作者简介:石晓丽(1981-), 女, 河北栾城人, 博士, 副教授, 主要从事气候变化影响研究。E-mail:
基金资助:
Xiaoli SHI1,3(), Wenjiao SHI2(
)
Received:
2015-02-03
Revised:
2015-05-09
Online:
2015-09-20
Published:
2015-10-29
Supported by:
摘要:
定量辨识气候变化和人类活动对耕地格局变化的贡献归因,是当今气候变化和土地利用变化领域的热点问题。目前研究大都结合耕地的时空变化格局和相关驱动因素进行双变量或多变量的定性分析,未进一步定量给出气候变化和人类活动的贡献程度。本文对国内外相关研究进行总结,介绍了定量评价气候变化和人类活动对耕地格局变化的贡献程度的5种主要研究方法,即模型分析法、数理统计法、框架分析法、指标评价法和差值比较法。综述了气候变化、人类活动以及两者共同作用对耕地格局变化的贡献归因的主要结论。总结了目前研究存在的方法综合性较差、数据全面性与准确性欠缺、尺度单一和解释片面等问题,针对以上问题,提出了从综合作用到具体因素的贡献程度归因评价的思路,并就数据、尺度与驱动力的解释问题提出了研究展望。
石晓丽, 史文娇. 气候变化和人类活动对耕地格局变化的贡献归因综述[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(9): 1463-1476.
Xiaoli SHI, Wenjiao SHI. Identifying contributions of climate change and human activities to spatial-temporal cropland changes: A review[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(9): 1463-1476.
表1
气候变化和人类活动对耕地格局变化的贡献程度的研究方法"
方法 | 研究区 | 研究时段 | 模型或参数 | 文献出处 |
---|---|---|---|---|
模型 分析法 | 中国 | 2000-2005年 | CLUE-S、Dinamica EGO | 高志强等, 2012[ |
欧洲 | 2000-2050年 | ROIMPEL、SFARMMOD | Audsley等, 2006[ | |
全球 | 2000-2080年 | AEZ、BLS | Tubiello等, 2007[ | |
越南 | 2007-2030年 | CLUE、MAGNET | Rutten等, 2014[ | |
数理 统计法 | 牙买加岛 | 1942-2010年 | Logistic回归 | Newman等, 2014[ |
美国密西西比河平原 | 1938-2010年 | 逐步Logistic回归 | Schweizer等, 2014[ | |
中国内蒙太仆寺旗 | 2008-2009年 | Logistic回归 | 郝海广等, 2010[ | |
中国江苏省 | 2000-2008年 | 主成分分析、一般线性回归 | Du等, 2014[ | |
巴西亚马逊地区 | 2001-2012年 | 面板回归-固定效应模型 | Gollnow等, 2014[ | |
中国浙江富阳市 | 1999-2006年 | 随机效应模型、固定效应模型 | Zhong等, 2011[ | |
爱尔兰 | 1993-2007年 | 随机效应模型、空间自回归随机效应模型 | Upton等, 2014[ | |
中国环渤海区域 | 2010年 | 线性回归模型、空间滞后模型、空间误差模型、地理加权回归模型 | 吴莉等, 2014[ | |
中国江西省 | 1988-2005年 | 土地用途转移驱动机理模型 | 战金艳等, 2010[ | |
中国 | 1996-2011年 | STIRPAT模型 | 张乐勤等, 2014[ | |
框架 分析法 | 瑞士 | 1930-2000年 | 系统定义—系统分析—系统综合框架 | Hersperger等, 2009[ |
葡萄牙、瑞典 | 1950-2010年 | 压力—冲突—诱因—触发框架 | Beilin等, 2014[ | |
指标 评价法 | 伊朗北部 | 1967-2002年 | 土地利用变化面积比率 | Kelarestaghi等, 2011[ |
瑞士阿尔卑斯山区 | 过去120年 | 土地利用转换率 | Schneeberge等, 2007[ | |
差值 比较法 | 中国 | 1980-2000年 | 20世纪80年代生态分区不变 | 高志强等, 2006[ |
萨赫勒地区 | 1982-2003年 | NDVI残差趋势法 | Herrmann等, 2005[ | |
南非地区 | 1985-2003年 | 降水利用率、NDVI残差趋势法 | Wessels等, 2007[ | |
中国鄂尔多斯地区 | 1981-2000年 | NPP残差趋势法 | 许端阳等, 2009[ |
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