气候变化和人类活动对耕地格局变化的贡献归因综述

doi:10.11821/dlxb201509009

地理学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 70 ›› Issue (9): 1463-1476.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201509009

气候变化和人类活动对耕地格局变化的贡献归因综述

石晓丽^1,³(), 史文娇²()

1. 河北师范大学资源与环境科学学院,石家庄 050024
2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室,北京 100101
3. 河北省环境演变与生态建设实验室,石家庄 050024

收稿日期:2015-02-03 修回日期:2015-05-09 出版日期:2015-09-20 发布日期:2015-10-29
作者简介:
作者简介：石晓丽(1981-), 女, 河北栾城人, 博士, 副教授, 主要从事气候变化影响研究。E-mail: hnushixiaoli@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41401113, 41371002);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项资助(XDA05090310);河北师范大学青年基金(L2011Q07);河北省高校重点学科建设项目

Identifying contributions of climate change and human activities to spatial-temporal cropland changes: A review

Xiaoli SHI^1,³(), Wenjiao SHI²()

1. College of Resources and Environment Sciences, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050024, China
2. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
3. Key Laboratory of Environmental Evolvement and Ecological Construction of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang 050024, China

Received:2015-02-03 Revised:2015-05-09 Online:2015-09-20 Published:2015-10-29
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41401113, No.41371002;The Science and Technology Strategic Pilot of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.XDA05090310;Youth Foundation of Hebei Normal University, No.L2011Q07;The key subject of Physical Geography of Hebei Province

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

定量辨识气候变化和人类活动对耕地格局变化的贡献归因,是当今气候变化和土地利用变化领域的热点问题。目前研究大都结合耕地的时空变化格局和相关驱动因素进行双变量或多变量的定性分析,未进一步定量给出气候变化和人类活动的贡献程度。本文对国内外相关研究进行总结,介绍了定量评价气候变化和人类活动对耕地格局变化的贡献程度的5种主要研究方法,即模型分析法、数理统计法、框架分析法、指标评价法和差值比较法。综述了气候变化、人类活动以及两者共同作用对耕地格局变化的贡献归因的主要结论。总结了目前研究存在的方法综合性较差、数据全面性与准确性欠缺、尺度单一和解释片面等问题,针对以上问题,提出了从综合作用到具体因素的贡献程度归因评价的思路,并就数据、尺度与驱动力的解释问题提出了研究展望。

关键词: 气候变化, 人类活动, 贡献程度, 定量, 耕地格局

Abstract:

It is important to study the contributions of climate change and human activities to spatial-temporal changes of cropland in the fields of climate change and land use change. Relationships between spatial-temporal cropland changes and driving forces were studied at qualitative aspects in most of the previous researches. However, the quantitative assessments of the contributions of climate change and human activities to spatial-temporal changes of cropland need to be explored for a better understanding of the dynamics of land use changes. We systematically reviewed the methods of identifying contributions of climate change and human activities to temporal-spatial cropland changes at quantitative aspects, e.g. model analysis, mathematical statistical method, framework analysis, index assessment and difference comparison. The progresses of the previous researches on quantitative evaluation of the contributions were introduced. However, there were four defects in assessing the contributions of climate change and human activities to spatial-temporal cropland changes. For example, the methods were lack of comprehensiveness, and the data need to be more accurate and abundant. Moreover, the scale was single and the explanations were biased. Meanwhile, we concluded a clue about quantitative approaches to assess the contributions from the synthetical aspect to specific driving forces. Besides, the solutions of the future researches on data, scale and explanation were proposed.

Key words: climate change, human activities, contribution, quantitative, cropland pattern

石晓丽, 史文娇. 气候变化和人类活动对耕地格局变化的贡献归因综述[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(9): 1463-1476.

Xiaoli SHI, Wenjiao SHI. Identifying contributions of climate change and human activities to spatial-temporal cropland changes: A review[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(9): 1463-1476.

图/表 1

表1

气候变化和人类活动对耕地格局变化的贡献程度的研究方法"

方法	研究区	研究时段	模型或参数	文献出处
模型分析法	中国	2000-2005年	CLUE-S、Dinamica EGO	高志强等, 2012^[6]
	欧洲	2000-2050年	ROIMPEL、SFARMMOD	Audsley等, 2006^[7]
	全球	2000-2080年	AEZ、BLS	Tubiello等, 2007^[8]
	越南	2007-2030年	CLUE、MAGNET	Rutten等, 2014^[9]
数理统计法	牙买加岛	1942-2010年	Logistic回归	Newman等, 2014^[10]
	美国密西西比河平原	1938-2010年	逐步Logistic回归	Schweizer等, 2014^[11]
	中国内蒙太仆寺旗	2008-2009年	Logistic回归	郝海广等, 2010^[12]
	中国江苏省	2000-2008年	主成分分析、一般线性回归	Du等, 2014^[13]
	巴西亚马逊地区	2001-2012年	面板回归-固定效应模型	Gollnow等, 2014^[14]
	中国浙江富阳市	1999-2006年	随机效应模型、固定效应模型	Zhong等, 2011^[15]
	爱尔兰	1993-2007年	随机效应模型、空间自回归随机效应模型	Upton等, 2014^[16]
	中国环渤海区域	2010年	线性回归模型、空间滞后模型、空间误差模型、地理加权回归模型	吴莉等, 2014^[17]
	中国江西省	1988-2005年	土地用途转移驱动机理模型	战金艳等, 2010^[18]
	中国	1996-2011年	STIRPAT模型	张乐勤等, 2014^[19]
框架分析法	瑞士	1930-2000年	系统定义—系统分析—系统综合框架	Hersperger等, 2009^[20]
框架分析法	葡萄牙、瑞典	1950-2010年	压力—冲突—诱因—触发框架	Beilin等, 2014^[21]
指标评价法	伊朗北部	1967-2002年	土地利用变化面积比率	Kelarestaghi等, 2011^[22]
指标评价法	瑞士阿尔卑斯山区	过去120年	土地利用转换率	Schneeberge等, 2007^[23]
差值比较法	中国	1980-2000年	20世纪80年代生态分区不变	高志强等, 2006^[24]
	萨赫勒地区	1982-2003年	NDVI残差趋势法	Herrmann等, 2005^[25]
	南非地区	1985-2003年	降水利用率、NDVI残差趋势法	Wessels等, 2007^[26]
	中国鄂尔多斯地区	1981-2000年	NPP残差趋势法	许端阳等, 2009^[27]

表1

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气候变化和人类活动对耕地格局变化的贡献归因综述

Identifying contributions of climate change and human activities to spatial-temporal cropland changes: A review

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