基于元胞自动机模型的土地利用变化模拟——以大连经济技术开发区为例

doi:10.11821/dlxb201503009

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

元胞自动机模型已经成为模拟土地利用变化的重要方法。传统土地模拟方法中侧重于通过分析影响土地利用变化的因素来构建预测模型,较少从土地利用类型变化及其相互作用的空间角度来关注模型构建。本文以1998年、2004年和2009年1:10000土地利用数据,利用Python语言结合GDAL与Numpy类库实现局部土地利用竞争的元胞自动机模型原型开发,并用于模拟大连市经济技术开发区1998-2009年土地利用变化模拟。研究结果：① 建立了发掘多地类之间相互作用关系的试验方法,研究适用于具有明确物理意义的多地类元胞自动机模拟模型;② 该模型具有好的模拟精度,对建设用地、农用地和林地等3种不同类型用地进行同时模拟,其对应Kappa系数分别为0.762,0.634和0.678;③ 该模型建立了研究不同种地类协调作用的基本方法,可以用于进一步研究土地利用变化地类之间驱动原理。

关键词: 局部土地利用竞争, 元胞自动机模型, 土地利用变化, 模拟, 大连市经济技术开发区

Abstract:

China has been experiencing the exceptionally drastic land-use/cover changes (LUCC) in the last decades. Many techniques focused on the simulation of the single type of land-use change. However, simulating changes between different types of land-use is much more difficult than simulating change for a single type of land-use. The key to simulations based on the Cellular Automata (CA) model is how to define the transition rules. This paper built a localized land-use competition CA model to examine land-use change rules for several land-use candidates under different localized land-use patterns. By this method, the potential transformation amount of each land-use type was calculated and an optimum transition rule was used to balance the amount of land-use changes of complicated types during the simulation period. The total area of each land-use type was predicted by Markov analysis as the global variable during the whole simulation period. This CA-Markov method was adopted to simulate LUCC in Dalian Economic and Technological Development Zone in 1998 and 2009, followed by a comparative experiment. The results show that: (1) The established test method is feasible for exploring the interaction between various land-use classes; (2) This model had high simulation precision, and the Kappa coefficients in urban area, agricultural area and undeveloped area were 0.762, 0.634 and 0.678, respectively; (3) The model proposed in this paper shows a symbolic way to studying the conversion among different land-use types, which could be used to improve the interactive relationship of LUCC.

Key words: localized land-use competition, cellular automata, land-use change, simulation, Dalian Economic and Technological Development Zone

杨俊, 解鹏, 席建超, 葛全胜, 李雪铭, 马占东. 基于元胞自动机模型的土地利用变化模拟——以大连经济技术开发区为例[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(3): 461-475.

Jun YANG, Peng XIE, Jianchao XI, Quansheng GE, Xueming LI, Zhandong MA. LUCC simulation based on the cellular automata simulation: A case study of Dalian Economic and Technological Development Zone[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(3): 461-475.

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数据	数据特征	数据来源
土地利用	1:10000面矢量数据	大连市国土资源和房屋局
道路	线矢量数据	大连市国土资源和房屋局
街道中心	点矢量数据（含省县乡三级道路）	大连市国土资源和房屋局
海岸线	线矢量数据	大连市国土资源和房屋局
土地利用分区	2006年—2020年规划矢量数据	大连市国土资源和房屋局
建设用地管制区	2006年—2020年规划矢量数据	大连市国土资源和房屋局
地形图	1:10000矢量数据	大连市国土资源和房屋局

一级类型	二级类型	含义
B建设用地	B1城乡及其他建设用地 B2交通水利用地	指建造建筑物、构筑物的土地。包括居民点用地、独立工矿用地、特殊用地、风景旅游用地、交通用地、水利设施用地等。
A农用地	A1耕地 A2其他农用地	指直接用于农业生产的土地,包括耕地、园地、草地及其他农用地
F林地	F1林地	除去农用地、建设用地等受人类干扰较少或尚未开发利用的林地、以及极少量荒草地等。
W水域	W1水域 W2滩涂沼泽	指河流水面和湖泊水面以及滩涂沼泽。

输入	邻域	输出	邻域地类元胞数量
地类	地类	地类	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
B	B	B	146	366	747	1419	2302	4799	3282	3724	19126
B	B	A	76	133	213	332	419	355	210	140	264
B	B	F	78	122	212	278	367	362	253	219	377
合计			300	621	1172	2029	3088	5516	3745	4083	19767
B	A	B	29519	1954	1498	1316	861	470	215	58	20
B	A	A	505	221	299	372	346	209	123	39	28
B	A	F	1196	354	231	203	152	76	32	16	8
合计			31220	2529	2028	1891	1359	755	370	113	56
B	F	B	30476	2305	1292	959	500	228	101	42	8
B	F	A	1317	430	221	89	44	28	7	5	1
B	F	F	1134	299	255	231	168	81	65	26	9
合计			32927	3034	1768	1279	712	337	173	73	18
A	B	B	3643	785	640	614	319	191	98	44	28
A	B	A	23630	2871	1741	1279	535	249	90	38	13
A	B	F	5545	740	394	255	120	37	16	4	5
合计			32818	4396	2775	2148	974	477	204	86	46
A	A	B	145	238	420	650	887	1128	917	862	1115
A	A	A	78	294	701	1459	2616	3985	4727	6139	10447
A	A	F	170	261	404	693	943	1100	1055	1121	1369
合计			393	793	1525	2802	4446	6213	6699	8122	12931
A	F	B	2821	1353	886	586	358	199	104	40	15
A	F	A	15337	6555	3900	2385	1249	593	287	116	24
A	F	F	2135	1314	1074	928	704	454	255	170	82
合计			20293	9222	5860	3899	2311	1246	646	326	121
F	B	B	3542	776	591	580	328	126	55	26	5
F	B	A	3816	530	349	215	100	41	21	5	0
F	B	F	35875	1801	996	740	299	58	20	4	0
合计			43233	3107	1936	1535	727	225	96	35	5
F	A	B	3070	823	626	531	399	269	178	99	34
F	A	A	544	460	553	685	713	650	677	512	283
F	A	F	29816	3347	2200	1658	1125	777	471	295	104
合计			33430	4630	3379	2874	2237	1696	1326	906	421
F	F	B	213	408	467	540	689	781	638	691	1602
F	F	A	532	800	818	664	665	567	424	288	319
F	F	F	216	508	762	1116	1757	2612	2790	3926	26106
合计			961	1716	2047	2320	3111	3960	3852	4905	28027

基础	邻域	输出	概率
地类	地类	地类	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
B	B	B	0.487	0.589	0.637	0.699	0.745	0.870	0.876	0.912	0.968
B	B	A	0.253	0.214	0.182	0.164	0.136	0.064	0.056	0.034	0.013
B	B	F	0.260	0.196	0.181	0.137	0.119	0.066	0.068	0.054	0.019
B	A	B	0.946	0.773	0.739	0.696	0.634	0.623	0.581	0.513	0.357
B	A	A	0.016	0.087	0.147	0.197	0.255	0.277	0.332	0.345	0.500
B	A	F	0.038	0.140	0.114	0.107	0.112	0.101	0.086	0.142	0.143
B	F	B	0.926	0.760	0.731	0.750	0.702	0.677	0.584	0.575	0.444
B	F	A	0.040	0.142	0.125	0.070	0.062	0.083	0.040	0.068	0.056
B	F	F	0.034	0.099	0.144	0.181	0.236	0.240	0.376	0.356	0.500
A	B	B	0.111	0.179	0.231	0.286	0.328	0.400	0.480	0.512	0.609
A	B	A	0.720	0.653	0.627	0.595	0.549	0.522	0.441	0.442	0.283
A	B	F	0.169	0.168	0.142	0.119	0.123	0.078	0.078	0.047	0.109
A	A	B	0.369	0.300	0.275	0.232	0.200	0.182	0.137	0.106	0.086
A	A	A	0.198	0.371	0.460	0.521	0.588	0.641	0.706	0.756	0.808
A	A	F	0.433	0.329	0.265	0.247	0.212	0.177	0.157	0.138	0.106
A	F	B	0.139	0.147	0.151	0.150	0.155	0.160	0.161	0.123	0.124
A	F	A	0.756	0.711	0.666	0.612	0.540	0.476	0.444	0.356	0.198
A	F	F	0.105	0.142	0.183	0.238	0.305	0.364	0.395	0.521	0.678
F	B	B	0.082	0.250	0.305	0.378	0.451	0.560	0.573	0.743	1.00
F	B	A	0.088	0.171	0.180	0.140	0.138	0.182	0.219	0.143	0.00
F	B	F	0.830	0.580	0.514	0.482	0.411	0.258	0.208	0.114	0.00
F	A	B	0.092	0.178	0.185	0.185	0.178	0.159	0.134	0.109	0.081
F	A	A	0.016	0.099	0.164	0.238	0.319	0.383	0.511	0.565	0.672
F	A	F	0.892	0.723	0.651	0.577	0.503	0.458	0.355	0.326	0.247
F	F	B	0.222	0.238	0.228	0.233	0.221	0.197	0.166	0.141	0.057
F	F	A	0.554	0.466	0.400	0.286	0.214	0.143	0.110	0.059	0.011
F	F	F	0.225	0.296	0.372	0.481	0.565	0.660	0.724	0.800	0.931

		ToB				ToA				ToF
			B			A	F	B	A	F	B	A	F
B	a		0.059			-0.059	-0.047	-0.028	0.053	-0.005	-0.028	0.006	0.053
B	b	0.459		0.945		0.920	0.263	-0.024	0.102	0.263	0.079	-0.023
A	a		0.060		-0.034	-0.002	-0.047	0.070	-0.065	-0.013	-0.034	0.066
A	b	0.048		0.380	0.154	0.773	0.211	0.852	0.179	0.380	-0.006
F	a		0.098		-0.006	-0.019	-0.005	0.081	-0.069	-0.093	-0.075	0.087
F	b	-0.007		0.176	0.282	0.167	-0.075	0.592	0.840	0.899	0.126