近60年来黄河入海水沙通量变化的阶段性与多尺度特征

doi:10.11821/dlxb201405005

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以1950-2011 年黄河利津站实测水沙资料为基础，利用突变分析和有序聚类分析方法对60 年来黄河入海水沙通量变化过程进行了阶段性划分，并利用功率谱、交叉谱和小波分析方法对同期黄河入海水沙通量的多尺度周期性变化特征进行了分析。研究结果表明，1985 年为利津站水沙通量显著变化的时间分界点，此后利津站的径流量和输沙量的各种尺度变化都呈现出明显的减弱趋势。入海径流量和输沙量在时间尺度上分别在2.86a、4.44a 和13.33a 存在显著相关关系。黄河入海水沙通量变化的阶段性特征受流域的降水以及人类活动尤其是水库建设、干流引水、水土保持等工程措施的影响，进入80 年代后受人类活动影响越来越大。西太平洋副热带高压的准两年周期振荡和年代际振荡、降水的周期性、太阳活动的年代际周期是影响黄河入海水沙通量周期性变化的重要因素，使得黄河入海水沙通量的周期性变化集中在年代际变化和年际变化上。黄河入海水沙通量的阶段性递变除受年代际尺度周期性变化控制外，还与人类活动的干扰有着密切的关系。

关键词: 周期性, 突变分析, 渤海, 黄河入海水沙通量, 阶段性, 小波分析

Abstract: On the basis of situ data observed at Lijin station from 1950 to 2011, the regional differences and abrupt changes of water discharge and sediment load are divided into different phases using the methods of Mann-Kendall test and order clustering. The abrupt change of water discharge and sediment load existed at Lijin station in 1985, and discharge and sediment decreased insignificantly from 1985 to 2011. The characteristics of the periodicities of water discharge and sediment load from the Yellow River estuary are studied by using power-spectrum, cross-spectrum and wavelet analysis. The periodic oscillations of water discharge and sediment load from the Yellow River are found at inter-annual scale and decadal scale. The significant correlation coefficients between two datasets occur at the scales of 2.86a, 4.44a and 13.33a. The phase characteristics of water discharge and sediment load are related to the precipitation and human activities; after the 1980s the decreases are mainly induced by human activities, especially due to the use of the reservoirs, water diversion and engineering projects related with soil and water conservation. Moreover, the inter-annual and decadal fluctuation of water discharge and sediment load from the Yellow River are caused directly by the oscillation of the precipitation at the drainage basin, and the rudimentary mechanism of multi-scale fluctuations are due to the northwest Pacific subtropical high, whose location oscillates in inter-annual and decadal periods, as well as sun spot and precipitation,. The decadal scale periodic oscillation of water discharge and sediment load from the Yellow River cause abrupt changes. The main reason for the stepwise step of phase is related with human activities.

Key words: abrupt analysis, multi-scale oscillation, Yellow River, water discharge and sediment load, Bohai Sea

任惠茹, 李国胜, 崔林林, 何蕾. 近60年来黄河入海水沙通量变化的阶段性与多尺度特征[J]. 地理学报, 2014, 69(5): 619-631.

REN Huiru, LI Guosheng, CUI Linlin, HE Lei. Phases and periodic changes of water discharge and sediment load from the Yellow River to the Bohai Sea during 1950-2011[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69(5): 619-631.

参考文献

[1] Walling D, Fang D. Recent trends in the suspended sediment loads of the world's rivers. Global and Planetary Change, 2003, 39(1): 111-126.
[2] Fanos A M. The impact of human activities on the erosion and accretion of the Nile Delta coast. Journal of Coastal Research, 1995, 11(3): 821-833.
[3] Milliman J D. World-wide delivery of river sediment to the oceans. The Journal of Geology, 1983, 91(1): 1-21.
[4] Semeniuk V. Coastal forms and Quaternary processes along the arid Pilbara coast of northwestern Australia. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 1996, 123(1): 49-84.
[5] Cacchione D, Wiberg P, Lynch J et al. Estimates of suspended-sediment flux and bedform activity on the inner portion of the Eel continental shelf. Marine Geology, 1999, 154(1): 83-97.
[6] Alongi D, Pfitzner J, Trott L et al. Rapid sediment accumulation and microbial mineralization in forests of the mangrove Kandelia candel in the Jiulongjiang Estuary, China. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 2005, 63(4): 605-618.
[7] Wang Y, Zhang Y. Human activities, break-off water discharge of the Yellow River and the impacts on coastal environment. Journal of Nanjing University: Natural Sciences Edition, 1998, 34: 257-271.
[8] Wang Houjie, Yang Zuosheng, Yoshiki Saito et al. Stepwise decreases of the Huanghe (Yellow River) sediment load (1950-2005): Impacts of climate change and human activities. Global and Planetary Change, 2007, 57(3): 331-354.
[9] Wang H, Bi N, Saito Y et al. Recent changes in sediment delivery by the Huanghe (Yellow River) to the sea: Causes and environmental implications in its estuary. Journal of Hydrology, 2010, 391(3): 302-313.
[10] Qin Yunshan, Zhao Yiyang, Zhao Songling. Geology of the Bohai Sea. Beijing: Science Press, 1985: 30-45. [秦蕴珊, 赵一阳, 赵松龄. 渤海地质. 北京: 科学出版社, 1985: 30-45.]
[11] Qian Yiying, Ye Qingchao, Zhou Wenhao. Discharge and Sediment Variation of the Yellow River Mainstream and Riverbed Propagation. Beijing: China Building Materials Press, 1993: 160-202. [钱意颖, 叶青超, 周文浩. 黄河干流水沙变化与河床演变. 北京: 中国建材工业出版社, 1993: 160-202.]
[12] Pang Jiazhen, Si Shuheng. The estuary changes of Huanghe River I. Oceanologia et Limnologia Sinica, 1979, 10(2): 136-141. [庞家珍, 司书亨. 黄河河口演变I. 海洋与湖沼, 1979, 10(2): 136-141.]
[13] Wu Dexing, Lin Xiaopei, Bao Xianwen. New issues in the dynamic and environmental studies of the Bohai Sea. Journal of Ocean University of China, 2004, 34(5): 685-688. [吴德星, 林霄沛, 鲍献文. 渤海动力环境研究应关注的新问题. 中国海洋大学学报, 2004, 34(5): 685-688.]
[14] Wu Dexing, Mu Lin, Li, Qiang. The long-term variation of salinity and its possibly contributions in the Bohai Sea. Progress in Natural Science, 2004, 14(2): 191-195. [吴德星, 牟林, 李强. 渤海盐度长期变化特征及可能的主导因素. 自然科学进展, 2004, 14(2): 191-195.]
[15] Ling Hongbo, Xu Hailiang, Fu Jinyi. Changes in intra-annual runoff and its response to climate change and human activities in the headstream areas of the Tarim River Basin, China. Quaternary International, 2013, 8(3): 1-13.
[16] Stive M J, Aarninkhof S G. Variability of shore and shoreline evolution. Coastal Engineering, 2002, 47(2): 211-235.
[17] Yang Zhifeng, Li Chunhui. Abrupt and periodic changes of the annual natural runoff in the sub-regions of the Yellow River. Journal of Mountain Science, 2004, 22(2): 140-146. [杨志峰, 李春晖. 黄河流域天然径流量突变性与周期性特征. 山地学报, 2004, 22(2): 140-146.]
[18] Fu Congbin, Wang Qiang. The definition and detection of abrupt climatic change. Scientia Atmospherica Sinica, 1992, 16(4): 482-493. [符淙斌, 王强. 气候突变的定义和检测方法. 大气科学, 1992, 16(4): 482-493.]
[19] Ren Liliang, Wang Meirong, Li Chunhong et al. Impacts of human activity on river runoff in the northern area of China. Journal of Hydrology, 2002, 261(1): 204-217.
[20] Xu Jiongxin. The water fluxes of the Yellow River to the sea in the past 50 years, in response to climate change and human activities. Environmental Management, 2005, 35(5): 620-631.
[21] Xu Jiongxin. Temporal variation in summer monsoon intensity since 1873 and its influence on runoff in the drainage area between Hekouzhen and Longmen, Yellow River Basin. Climatic Change, 2012, 112(2): 283-298.
[22] Zhao Zhenguo, Jiang Boren, Chen Guozhen et al. Relationship of ENSO event with the snow cover in Qinghai-Xizang plateau and atmosphere circulation in the East Asia. Shandong Meteorology, 1999, 19(4): 1-8. [赵振国, 蒋伯仁, 陈国珍等. ENSO 事件与青藏高原积雪和东亚大气环流的可能联系. 山东气象, 1999, 19(4): 1-8.]
[23] Chen Xingfang. QBO analysis of precipitation in China from 1986 to 1995. Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology, 1997, 8(4): 469-476. [陈兴芳. 近10 年我国降水的QBO分析. 应用气象学报, 1997, 8(4): 469-476.]
[24] Bornhold B, Yang Z S, Keller G et al. Sedimentary framework of the modern Huanghe (Yellow River) Delta. Geo-Marine Letters, 1986, 6(2): 77-83.
[25] Wang Hailong, Li Guosheng. Wavelet study on the multi-scale oscillation of discharge and suspended sediment from the Yellow River to the Bohai Sea. Progress in Natural Science, 2006, 16(12): 1639-1644. [王海龙, 李国胜. 近50 年来黄河人海水沙通量变化的多尺度分析. 自然科学进展, 2006, 16(12): 1639-1644.]
[26] Ma Zhenfeng, Gao Wenliang. Relationship between interannual change over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau monsoon and climate change in upper reach of Changjiang River. Plateau Meteorology, 2003, 22(Suppl.): 8-16. [马振锋, 高文良, 青藏高原季风年际变化与长江上游气候变化的联系, 高原气象, 2003, 22(增刊): 8-16.]
[27] Wei Zhigang, Huang Ronghui, Dong Wenjie. Spatial distributions and inter-decadal variations of the snow at the Tibetan Plateau weather stations. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2002, 26(4): 496-508. [韦志刚, 黄荣辉, 董文杰. 青藏高原气温和降水的年际和年代际变化. 大气科学, 2002, 26(4): 496-508.]
[28] Li Chunhui, Yang Zhifeng. Relationship between solar activities and precipitation in the Yellow River Basin. Meteorology Monthly, 2005, 31(11): 42-44. [李春晖, 杨志峰. 太阳活动与黄河流域降水关系分析. 气象, 2005, 31 (11): 42-44.]
[29] Li Chunhui, Yang Zhifeng. Relationship between sun activities and natural runoff in the Yellow River Basin based on Morlet wavelet. Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering, 2004, 15(3): 1-4. [李春晖, 杨志峰. 基于Morlet 小波的太阳活动与黄河流域径流量关系分析. 水资源与水工程学报, 2004, 15(3): 1-4.]
[30] Wang Xiaochun, Wu Guoxiong. The analysis of the relationship between the spatial modes of summer precipitation anomalies over China and the general circulation. Sinentia Atmospherica Sinica, 1997, 21(2): 161-169. [王晓春, 吴国雄, 中国夏季降水异常空间模与副热带高压的关系. 大气科学, 1997, 21(2): 161-169.]
[31] Wang H, Yang Z, Saito Y et al. Interannual and seasonal variation of the Huanghe (Yellow River) water discharge over the past 50 years. Global and Planetary Change, 2006, 50(3): 212-225.
[32] Sun Weiguo, Cheng Binyan, Li Rong. Multitime scale correlations between runoff and regional climate variations in the source region of the Yellow River. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009, 64(1): 117-127. [孙卫国, 程炳岩, 李荣. 黄河源区径流量与区域气候变化的多时间尺度相关. 地理学报, 2009, 64(1): 117-127.]
[33] Tang Maocang, Bai Chongyuan, Feng Song et al. Clamte plateau in recent century and its relation to astromical factors. Plateau Meteorology, 1998, 17(3): 250-257. [汤懋苍, 白重瑗, 冯松等. 本世纪青藏高原气候的三次突变及与天文因素的相关. 高原气象, 1998, 17(3): 250-257.]
[34] Li C, Yang Z, Huang G H et al. Identification of relationship between sunspots and natural runoff in the Yellow River based on discrete wavelet analysis. Expert Systems with Applications, 2009, 36(2): 3309-3318.
[35] Xu Jiongxin. Sediment flux into the sea as influenced by the changing human activities and precipitation: Example of the Huanghe River, China. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 2003, 25(5): 125-134. [许炯心. 流域降水和人类活动对黄河入海泥沙通量的影响. 海洋学报, 2003, 25(5): 125-134.]
[36] Wang Suiling, Li Ling, Yan Ming. The contributions of climate change and human activities to the runoff yield changes in the middle Yellow River Basin. Geographical Research, 2013, 32(3): 395-402. [王随继, 李玲, 颜明. 气候和人类活动对黄河中游区间产流量变化的贡献率. 地理研究, 2013, 32(3): 395-402.]
[37] Pan Honglei, Wang Qian. Negative impacts of reservoirs on water and sands problem of Yellow River. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2003, 23(2): 73-76. [潘鸿雷, 王倩. 水库修建对黄河水沙问题的负面影响. 水土保持通报, 2003, 23(2): 73-76.]
[38] Zhou Xiaoxia, Yang Zuosheng. Variations in the Yellow River water discharge and sediment load into the sea in the last 48 years and their response to human activities in the river basin. Coastal Engineering, 2002, 21(1): 6-15. [周晓霞, 杨作升. 48 年来黄河入海水沙过程及其对流域人类活动的响应. 海岸工程, 2002, 21(1): 6-15.]
[39] Zhao Yean, Pan Xiandi. Analysis on scour and silting of the channel in the lower Yellow River in the eighties. Yellow River, 1992, (4): 11-20. [赵业安, 潘贤娣. 80 年代黄河水沙基本情况及特点. 人民黄河, 1992, (4): 11-20.]
[40] Liu Cheng, Wang Zhaoyin, Sui Jueyi. Variation of flow and sediment of the Yellow River and their influential factors. Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources, 2008, 28(3): 1-7. [刘成, 王兆印, 隋觉义. 黄河干流沿程水沙变化及其影响因素分析. 水利水电科技进展, 2008, 28(3): 1-7.]
[41] Yang Zousheng, Li Guogang, Wang Houjie et al. Variation of daily water and sediment discharge in the Yellow River lower reaches in the past 55 years and its response to the dam operation on its main stream. Marine Geology and Quaternary Geology, 2008, 28(6): 9-18. [杨作升, 李国刚, 王厚杰等. 55年来黄河下游逐日水沙过程变化及其对干流建库的响应. 海洋地质与第四纪地质, 2008, 28(6): 9-18.]
[42] Chen Hao, Zhou Jingxing, Lu Zhongchen et al. Impact of environmental factors on runoff and sediment variations in middle reaches of the Yellow River. Geographical Research, 2002, 21(2): 179-187. [陈浩, 周金星, 陆中臣等. 黄河中游流域环境要素对水沙变异的影响. 地理研究, 2002, 21(2): 179-187.]
[43] Yu Tao, Deng Yixiang, Fu Guo et al. Analysis on characteristics and reasons of sediment discharge variation of the Yellow River in last 50 years. Yellow River, 2007, 29(12): 27-30. [于涛, 邓义祥, 富国等. 近50 年来黄河输沙量变化特征及原因分析. 人民黄河, 2007, 29(12): 27-30.]