中国城镇化与经济增长及用水变化的时空耦合关系

doi:10.11821/dlxb201412006

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中国的快速城镇化进程伴随着经济总量与用水总量的持续增长以及严重的城市缺水危机,然而三者之间的定量关系及内在机理尚不完全清楚。本文构建了城镇化驱动经济与用水增长的完全分解模型,定量测度了中国以及31个省级行政区1997-2011年城镇化过程对经济增长与用水变化的驱动效应。结果表明：① 中国城镇化对经济增长的综合贡献率长期稳定在30%左右,经济增长60%以上依赖于生产效率的提高,因此应适当弱化“城镇化是经济增长主要动力”的理念;② 中国城镇化虽然通过拉动经济增长增加用水2352×10⁸ m³,但通过优化产业结构和提高用水经济效率减少用水4530×10⁸ m³,中国用水增长的原因是由于人口和经济规模效应而不是城镇化效应;③ 中国东中部的人口和经济大省且处于城镇化加速阶段的,城镇化拉动经济并造成用水增长的作用大,但减量效应也大,而且均呈逐年增长趋势,最终城镇化对用水的综合驱动以减量效应为主,而且在时空变化上的差异相对缩小;④ 城镇化虽有助于减少全国或较大范围区域的用水总量,但会导致城镇建成区或城市群地区的缺水危机,因此应尽快建立并完善城乡之间 (或城镇化水平较高与较低地区之间) 的水资源流转机制与补偿机制。

关键词: 城镇化, 经济增长, 水资源利用, 时空耦合, 完全分解模型, 省际差异, 中国, urbanization, economic growth, water resources utilization, spatio-temporal coupling, complete decomposition model, differences among provinces

Abstract:

China's rapid urbanization is accompanied by a continuous growth of economy and water use, and also a severe urban water crisis. However, the quantitative relationships and the interaction mechanisms among urbanization, economic growth and water use change are still unclear. To measure the exact driving effects of urbanization on economic growth and water use change, a complete decomposition model was established, and was applied in China and its 31 provincial administrative regions from 1997 to 2011. Results show that: (1) China's urbanization contributed about 30% of economic growth every year. More than 60% of economic growth relied on the increase of production efficiency. Therefore, such idea that urbanization is the engine or major driving force of economic growth may be properly weakened. (2) China's urbanization increased 2352×10⁸βm³ of water use by intensifying the economic aggregate. However, it decreased 4530×10⁸βm³ of water use by optimizing the industrial structure and improving the water use efficiency. Therefore, urbanization did not lead to water use growth. The cause for China's water use growth was the increase of population and economy. (3) In those provinces which are located in the eastern and central China, have large population and economy, and step into a period of accelerating urbanization, urbanization generally made great contribution to economic and water use growth. At the same time, it also had great contribution to industrial restructuring and water use efficiency improvement, and then largely decreased water use. In total, water use was decreased by urbanization in most provinces, and the spatio-temporal differences among them were lessened. (4) Although urbanization helps to decrease water use for China or a large region, it may cause water crisis in urban built-up areas or urban agglomerations. Therefore, the transfer and compensation mechanisms of water resoureces should be constructed as soon as possible between urban and rural areas, or low and high density urban areas.

鲍超. 中国城镇化与经济增长及用水变化的时空耦合关系[J]. 地理学报, 2014, 69(12): 1799-1809.

Chao BAO. Spatio-temporal coupling relationships among urbanization,economic growth and water use change in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69(12): 1799-1809.

图/表 7

图2

表2

1997-2011年中国分省人口城镇化对经济增长的综合贡献率 (%)

年份	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	1997-2011
全国	30.0	27.0	44.6	30.4	33.0	31.2	32.6	31.1	35.4	24.0	33.0	33.7	29.8	32.4	31.6
北京	2.9	13.8	-19.7	-14.3	9.6	10.0	7.9	12.1	18.8	6.4	9.6	8.3	8.0	9.6	7.5
天津	4.7	9.5	4.1	2.6	3.1	2.7	2.5	2.7	-0.9	2.2	2.1	2.1	2.0	2.1	2.3
河北	28.1	24.8	48.1	32.7	43.5	42.9	40.7	37.6	17.2	32.7	39.6	39.6	33.3	35.3	35.1
山西	21.3	31.9	51.3	21.8	29.0	24.1	26.6	30.1	24.0	19.7	33.6	47.8	21.4	22.4	26.1
内蒙古	29.3	17.5	32.0	22.4	12.0	12.1	10.7	9.9	10.0	11.9	12.8	13.5	15.1	15.6	13.7
辽宁	10.5	-6.8	2.4	3.7	13.0	11.7	14.4	16.0	14.0	8.2	9.1	9.2	8.6	9.7	9.8
吉林	1.9	-13.6	-10.5	-4.3	18.6	13.4	14.7	15.5	12.4	6.3	6.6	7.7	7.8	7.8	7.8
黑龙江	3.0	12.9	24.2	8.1	18.7	14.6	14.3	13.5	10.5	10.3	10.5	10.7	9.7	9.9	11.5
上海	6.6	-21.3	4.1	29.1	7.7	0.1	0.0	0.1	26.8	4.7	6.2	6.4	4.6	5.0	6.3
江苏	34.2	62.4	73.3	67.7	26.2	28.5	25.2	27.2	19.8	33.4	36.7	36.0	33.8	36.4	34.8
浙江	47.7	48.0	53.7	19.1	24.4	23.5	21.6	29.7	15.0	21.6	29.1	31.4	23.7	29.2	27.0
安徽	29.3	35.1	37.9	12.4	59.7	54.8	52.3	14.5	36.5	28.8	31.7	31.1	27.9	29.8	32.6
福建	33.7	36.7	29.1	27.3	24.8	24.4	22.9	25.5	45.1	24.1	27.0	27.7	24.4	26.4	27.9
江西	17.4	14.8	53.3	44.0	36.1	36.0	33.5	36.4	4.9	5.8	5.9	3.3	19.6	21.8	19.4
山东	9.5	22.2	18.0	16.8	19.2	24.3	28.9	30.6	27.3	25.8	29.3	28.4	27.6	30.0	26.5
河南	27.0	12.6	22.5	19.7	35.5	32.6	27.9	27.1	30.2	25.2	29.7	32.5	28.9	30.2	28.5
湖北	30.7	28.6	28.0	38.7	35.2	44.4	35.0	33.8	28.3	26.2	27.6	26.8	24.2	25.1	28.7
湖南	36.5	33.3	38.2	20.2	55.6	44.9	46.8	44.7	7.1	27.4	29.3	29.6	28.0	31.2	31.4
广东	29.6	26.1	11.9	10.4	19.2	15.1	16.5	16.6	19.9	23.2	29.4	28.9	21.6	24.1	21.6
广西	30.7	26.8	19.5	38.3	28.6	27.0	20.9	43.7	42.9	46.7	36.5	34.0	31.3	35.0	35.0
海南	44.0	23.1	23.7	27.0	15.8	13.1	10.0	8.3	45.4	13.6	19.4	16.4	12.5	16.2	18.5
重庆	32.5	26.4	67.6	53.2	32.8	31.4	31.1	28.8	56.4	30.0	31.8	30.5	26.7	27.2	32.7
四川	19.7	32.6	35.1	25.9	35.8	39.6	34.6	42.8	35.5	27.9	35.3	28.0	27.0	27.1	31.1
贵州	2.7	5.0	14.4	14.5	19.4	25.2	19.2	24.2	-2.5	12.1	15.7	15.7	14.3	12.6	13.8
云南	37.6	49.9	67.8	37.3	38.9	35.3	40.4	38.1	25.4	29.7	33.4	29.8	29.5	27.0	33.2
西藏	61.2	66.9	68.1	73.5	54.2	48.2	38.3	32.5	29.3	28.0	22.0	45.0	45.3	44.0	42.5
陕西	39.1	29.5	55.4	30.6	33.6	34.3	20.7	25.9	10.9	20.2	19.6	23.0	21.6	22.4	23.6
甘肃	19.8	17.2	38.3	26.9	28.2	46.3	27.0	27.2	37.3	19.5	27.6	27.1	24.1	22.9	27.2
青海	19.0	-9.6	-17.9	55.7	21.7	17.9	13.6	22.7	36.9	17.8	17.8	23.0	15.8	17.7	19.7
宁夏	18.4	8.5	-13.9	2.1	35.1	32.3	33.7	32.8	14.7	18.5	18.6	19.5	17.4	19.1	19.5
新疆	-9.9	6.0	-12.3	-9.8	19.6	19.4	25.5	19.1	19.2	18.7	20.6	26.8	21.2	19.0	17.2

表2

表3

图3

表4

1997-2011年中国分省人口—经济城镇化对用水变化的综合驱动效应 (108 m3)

年份	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	1997~2011
全国	-141	-117	-147	-156	-195	-267	-27	-143	-150	-359	-72	-112	-176	-115	-2177
北京	-2.2	-1.6	-3.5	-3.0	-2.3	-2.4	-2.8	-2.2	-1.9	-2.3	-1.5	-1.0	-2.2	-1.1	-29.9
天津	-0.5	-2.8	-1.5	-1.1	-0.9	-1.4	-1.4	-1.7	-2.3	-2.4	-2.7	-2.2	-2.6	-2.0	-25.5
河北	-5.3	-8.2	-3.0	-3.3	-2.4	-4.5	-4.9	-5.4	-13.0	-11.4	-5.2	-6.8	-10.3	-7.3	-91.0
山西	2.1	3.3	8.7	-2.1	3.2	-2.2	-2.9	-5.0	-1.5	-5.9	-1.9	0.6	1.6	-8.1	-10.0
内蒙古	2.7	6.3	-5.0	-8.7	-12.6	-20.9	-12.5	-24.1	-20.3	-22.1	-16.5	-18.0	-13.6	-11.8	-177.3
辽宁	9.9	-5.3	-13.7	-3.1	-1.0	-4.1	-4.3	-3.9	-6.1	-12.3	-8.3	-11.4	-9.7	-6.6	-79.9
吉林	6.7	-7.4	29.7	-6.7	-1.2	-3.9	-2.8	-0.6	-6.8	-12.4	-5.4	-5.4	-5.9	-6.6	-28.5
黑龙江	4.7	-12.4	-21.2	-2.0	-1.9	-16.8	5.6	-4.4	-6.4	-18.5	-8.8	-11.4	-17.2	-11.5	-122.3
上海	-2.2	-5.1	-1.6	1.3	-0.9	-2.2	-4.4	-5.9	0.0	-3.1	-1.9	-1.8	-4.3	-2.2	-34.2
江苏	-24.8	7.6	8.3	9.1	-17.5	-39.0	-37.3	-26.3	-21.6	-20.4	-12.1	-12.4	-13.6	-11.4	-211.2
浙江	-3.8	-2.9	-1.3	-6.3	-8.0	-13.2	-11.3	-9.9	-12.7	-12.2	-4.7	-5.7	-7.7	-3.8	-103.7
安徽	-8.1	4.8	-8.9	-51.0	2.1	-9.8	3.4	-12.3	-9.2	-11.2	-18.7	2.9	-13.0	-12.3	-141.3
福建	-11.5	-1.0	-7.0	-5.0	-6.0	-8.2	-6.6	-6.0	-5.6	-8.0	-5.8	-5.0	-9.1	-5.0	-89.9
江西	-20.2	-0.4	5.8	-3.0	-6.2	-11.4	-5.8	-2.8	-10.6	-112.2	-16.5	-17.1	-15.8	16.2	-199.9
山东	-11.6	-9.6	-14.8	-9.9	-17.3	-16.2	-11.1	-14.1	-7.0	-17.4	-9.4	-11.3	-12.0	-9.3	-171.0
河南	0.0	-0.1	-8.1	-9.4	-5.7	-21.4	5.1	-5.4	-66.2	-14.8	-1.3	-4.8	-9.5	-8.1	-149.6
湖北	-16.3	-17.0	-7.4	-4.5	-10.4	2.2	-0.7	-4.3	-7.1	-10.3	-4.7	-7.2	-11.1	-9.2	-107.9
湖南	-14.6	-6.6	-6.9	-11.1	-9.1	-4.1	2.3	-2.5	-20.7	-18.7	-12.6	-12.8	-15.5	-11.4	-144.3
广东	-11.4	-10.1	-29.7	-18.2	-18.3	-32.3	-25.4	-24.2	-24.5	-25.0	-11.2	-6.1	-16.5	-11.3	-264.0
广西	-3.8	3.1	1.5	-6.9	-2.6	-14.0	-9.8	1.7	-6.0	-9.6	-9.6	-12.6	-14.6	-9.6	-92.8
海南	1.5	2.4	1.8	1.5	0.5	-0.2	-0.9	-2.2	0.6	-2.9	-0.5	-1.6	-3.6	-2.0	-5.6
重庆	-0.3	-0.8	1.1	0.6	0.0	-0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	1.5	1.3	0.8	0.3	-0.4	4.6
四川	-6.0	-0.8	-4.2	-8.1	-3.4	-2.5	-3.6	-2.1	-8.4	-10.9	-6.7	-4.9	-10.0	-11.0	-82.7
贵州	-3.4	-2.9	-3.0	-3.1	-2.9	-1.6	-2.6	-2.5	-6.1	-6.8	-1.8	-3.9	-4.4	-9.1	-54.0
云南	5.5	0.4	4.0	-1.5	-2.5	-1.6	-3.2	-0.3	-4.2	-4.7	-0.3	-5.7	-7.6	-5.8	-27.6
西藏	-0.9	-0.4	1.3	-0.4	2.5	-2.1	-8.3	-3.9	-1.1	-1.7	-1.2	-2.8	-15.1	-2.5	-36.5
陕西	1.5	-3.4	-0.3	-3.3	-2.2	-2.3	-0.7	-1.9	-3.4	-6.6	-4.3	-5.1	-5.2	-3.7	-40.8
甘肃	-3.3	-7.5	-4.4	-0.2	-0.1	-1.6	-1.1	-3.0	-11.7	-7.4	-1.4	-4.5	-5.3	-5.7	-57.2
青海	-1.2	-1.6	-2.3	-0.3	-1.7	-0.8	-1.7	-1.3	-0.8	-2.2	-0.6	-1.3	-1.5	-1.9	-19.2
宁夏	3.7	-4.8	-15.4	-4.7	-2.2	-8.1	-12.2	-1.1	-5.3	-5.1	-3.0	-3.3	-4.1	-4.2	-69.9
新疆	-3.7	-56.9	-29.0	-32.7	-15.9	-9.5	-24.7	-19.8	-24.2	-23.4	-20.0	-14.2	-31.0	-26.4	-331.4

表4

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年份	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	1997~2011
ΔE	586	614	732	781	925	1114	1233	1523	1900	2391	1857	1947	2411	2369	20385
P_eff	68	90	137	75	65	68	98	92	126	120	128	134	141	149	1491
I_eff	421	434	400	576	692	855	912	1170	1398	1963	1389	1448	1876	1797	15330
S_eff	97	91	195	131	169	191	223	261	376	308	340	365	394	424	3564
SI_eff	79	75	131	107	136	156	179	213	296	266	273	291	325	343	2872
U_eff	176	166	326	238	305	348	402	474	672	574	613	656	719	768	6436
ΔI	421	422	473	555	672	812	875	1095	1347	1713	1296	1350	1680	1635	14346
II_eff	342	349	318	452	540	663	703	896	1062	1481	1041	1078	1389	1322	11637
IS_eff	79	73	155	103	132	148	172	200	285	232	255	272	291	312	2709

年份	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	1997-2011
ΔW	-131	155	-93	70	-70	-256	225	75	162	11	77	72	40	93	429
EP_eff	415	405	449	441	482	514	515	590	672	758	530	514	585	529	7399
EI_eff	-391	-77	-325	-174	-330	-514	-166	-312	-251	-392	-306	-263	-326	-255	-4081
ES_eff	-155	-173	-217	-198	-221	-256	-124	-204	-260	-355	-147	-179	-219	-181	-2888
ESI_eff	-111	-53	-130	-93	-133	-171	-71	-123	-127	-186	-99	-106	-131	-106	-1641
EU_eff	-266	-226	-348	-290	-354	-427	-195	-327	-387	-541	-246	-285	-350	-287	-4530
QEP_eff	125	109	200	134	159	160	168	184	238	182	175	173	175	171	2352
ΔWU	-141	-117	-147	-156	-195	-267	-27	-143	-150	-359	-72	-112	-176	-115	-2177
ΔEI	-70.3	-29.8	-60.0	-37.9	-51.8	-66.0	-22.6	-36.3	-32.0	-41.3	-22.4	-20.0	-22.5	-16.4	-529.2
EII_eff	-50.3	-9.2	-36.0	-17.7	-31.0	-44.1	-12.9	-21.9	-15.7	-21.7	-15.1	-11.9	-13.4	-9.6	-310.6
EIS_eff	-20.0	-20.6	-24.0	-20.2	-20.8	-22.0	-9.7	-14.3	-16.3	-19.6	-7.3	-8.1	-9.0	-6.8	-218.7