1990-2010年中国耕地变化对粮食生产潜力的影响

doi:10.11821/dlxb201412003

地理学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 69 ›› Issue (12): 1767-1778.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201412003

1990-2010年中国耕地变化对粮食生产潜力的影响

刘洛^1,^2,³(), 徐新良²(), 刘纪远², 陈曦¹, 宁佳^2,³

1. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐 830011
2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室, 北京 100101
3. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049

收稿日期:2013-10-15 修回日期:2014-06-04 出版日期:2014-12-25 发布日期:2014-12-25
作者简介:
作者简介：刘洛 (1987-), 男, 汉族, 湖南益阳人, 博士研究生, 主要从事土地利用土地覆被变化研究。E-mail: liuluo87930@qq.com
基金资助:
国家科技支撑计划 (2013BAC03B01);中国科学院西部行动计划项目 (KZCX2-XB3-08-01);高分辨率对地观测系统重大专项 (05-Y30B02-9001-13/15-10)

Impact of farmland changes on production potential in China during recent two decades

Luo LIU^1,^2,³(), Xinliang XU²(), Jiyuan LIU², Xi CHEN¹, Jia NING^2,³

1. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, CAS, Urumqi 830011, China
2. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2013-10-15 Revised:2014-06-04 Published:2014-12-25 Online:2014-12-25
Supported by:
National Key Project of Scientific and Technical Supporting Programs, No.2013BAC03B01; No.STSN-14-00;Project of CAS Action-plan for West Development, No. KZCX2-XB3-08-01;Important National Project of High-resolution Earth Observation System, No.05-Y30B02-9001-13/15-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

1990年以来,在国家生态环境保护工程实施、经济快速增长等因素的影响下,中国耕地数量与空间格局发生了巨大变化,对粮食生产潜力造成了巨大影响。本文采用GAEZ模型,结合中国气象、地形、土壤等因素,定量分析了中国耕地粮食生产潜力空间特征以及1990-2010年中国耕地变化对粮食生产潜力的影响。主要结论如下：① 2010年全国耕地粮食生产潜力总量为10.55亿t,全国耕地平均粮食生产潜力为7614 kg/hm²。中国耕地粮食生产潜力存在显著的空间差异,总体表现为东部高而西北部较低的趋势,并且高值区主要分布在长江中下游地区和华南区。② 1990-2010年的20年间,中国耕地粮食生产潜力变化表现出明显的时空差异,总体呈现南减北增、总量减少的基本特征。新增耕地粮食生产潜力的重心逐步由东北向西北转移。耕地粮食生产潜力总量净减少297万t,占2010年全国实际粮食总产量的0.29%。③ 在1990-2000年与2000-2010年两个时期,耕地变化对耕地粮食生产潜力影响差异明显。前10年,耕地粮食生产潜力总量净增加1011万t,主要集中在东北平原区和北方干旱半干旱区;后10年,耕地粮食生产潜力总量净减少1308万t,主要集中在长江中下游地区和黄淮海平原区。从总体看,近20年来耕地粮食生产潜力总量增加主要是由林、草地和未利用土地开垦所导致,而耕地粮食生产潜力总量减少主要是由城市扩展和退耕还林还草所导致。

关键词: 耕地, 粮食生产潜力, GAEZ模型, 中国

Abstract:

Quantity and spatial pattern of farmland has changed, which leads to significant change of farmland potential productivity under the influence of national ecological environmental protection project and the rapidly increased economic growth during the last two decades. In this study, farmland potential productivity in China was calculated based on meteorological data, terrain elevation data, soil data and land use data in 1990, 2000 and 2010 by using the Globe Agricultural Ecology Zone model (GAEZ). Then, the changes in farmland potential productivity in response to farmland change from 1990 to 2000 were subsequently analyzed. (1) In 2010, total farmland potential productivity is 1.055 billion tons in China, and the average farmland potential productivity is 7614 kg/hm², which shows tremendous heterogeneity in spatial pattern. The productivity in eastern China is high, while that of northwestern China is low. High value region of farmland potential productivity is mainly distributed in South China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. (2) The obvious tempo-spatial heterogeneity of farmland change from 1990 to 2010 has a significant influence on the farmland potential productivity in China. The trend shows the farmland potential productivity decreased in southern China and increased in northern China. Furthermore, the gravity of the growth of farmland potential productivity moves gradually from northeastern to northwestern China. The net decrease of farmland potential productivity is 2.97 billion tons, which occupies 0.29% of the national total productivity. (3) There is a huge difference of the farmland potential productivity in response to farmland change between two periods from 1990 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2010. During the first decade, net increase in the cultivated land areas is 10.11 billion tons, which primarily spread across Northeast China Plain and arid and semiarid regions of North China. During the next decade, net decrease in the cultivated land areas is 13.08 billion tons, primarily distributed in the middle and lower Yangtze River region and the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. In general, during the last two decades, the reason for the increase of the farmland potential productivity may contribute to the reclamation of grassland, woodland and unused land, and the reason for the decrease of the farmland potential productivity may result from the urbanization that occupies the cultivated land and Green for Grain Project that returns farmland to forests and grasslands.

Key words: farmland, production potential, GAEZ model, China

刘洛, 徐新良, 刘纪远, 陈曦, 宁佳. 1990-2010年中国耕地变化对粮食生产潜力的影响[J]. 地理学报, 2014, 69(12): 1767-1778.

Luo LIU, Xinliang XU, Jiyuan LIU, Xi CHEN, Jia NING. Impact of farmland changes on production potential in China during recent two decades[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69(12): 1767-1778.

图/表 11

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时段	变化类型	主要原因	变化总量 (万t)	变化比例 (%)	空间分布
1990-2000	增加	耕地扩张 (毁林、毁草开垦),占增长总量的81.5%。	3486.89	3.30	主要分布于东北平原区和北方干旱半干旱区 (图5),分别占增加总量的47.8%和40.0%。
1990-2000	减少	城镇扩展侵占耕地和退耕还林还草,分别占减少总量的52.8%和32.3%。	-2475.89	-2.34	主要集中在长江中下游地区、北方干旱半干旱地区和黄淮海平原区 (图5),分别占减少总量的27.8%、25.8%和23.5%。
2000-2010	增加	未利用地和草地开垦,分别占增加总量的48.7%和27.3%。	1101.83	1.03	主要集中在北方干旱半干旱区 (图6),占增加总量的64.1%。
2000-2010	减少	城市扩展侵占耕地资源,占减少总量的66.0%。	-2410.28	-2.26	主要集中在长江中下游地区和黄淮海平原区 (图6),分别占耕地粮食生产潜力减少总量的38.0%和22.6%。

地区	减少						增加						净变化
地区	退耕还林	退耕还草		耕地转水域	城镇扩张侵占	耕地转未利用地	减少总量	林地开垦	草地开垦	水域转耕地	工矿建设用地转耕地	未利用地开垦	增加总量
东北平原区	-96.83	-39.19	-17.43	-37.38	-31.21	-222.03	697.62	634.96	46.16	1.94	291.21	1671.88	1449.85
云贵高原区	-20.38	-18.05	-3.05	-35.34	-0.00	-76.82	56.91	14.54	0.71	0.04	0.00	72.20	-4.62
北方干旱半干旱区	-57.12	-403.58	-19.46	-69.78	-87.23	-637.16	171.68	1033.53	18.79	42.96	113.16	1380.13	742.97
华南区	-29.72	-1.15	-35.45	-67.58	-0.00	-133.89	17.08	2.29	3.69	0.95	0.43	24.44	-109.45
四川盆地及周边地区	-5.59	-1.61	-4.37	-55.34	-0.00	-66.90	7.65	1.03	0.67	0.40	0.00	9.76	-57.14
长江中下游地区	-85.03	-3.52	-116.32	-481.06	-0.32	-686.26	44.28	11.73	32.43	0.71	0.39	89.54	-596.71
青藏高原区	-0.00	-0.30	-1.03	-1.15	-0.44	-2.91	0.62	8.37	0.42	0.00	0.65	10.05	7.14
黄土高原区	-9.92	-3.05	-5.85	-49.45	-0.52	-68.79	5.64	37.02	10.86	0.00	1.07	54.60	-14.19
黄淮海平原区	-20.69	-3.26	-43.87	-509.86	-3.45	-581.14	35.60	62.99	59.76	0.20	15.74	174.28	-406.85
全国	-325.27	-473.70	-246.82	-1306.93	-123.17	-2475.89	1026.08	1806.46	173.50	47.20	422.66	3486.89	1011.00

地区	减少						增加						净变化
地区	退耕还林	退耕还草		耕地转水域	城镇扩张侵占	耕地转未利用地	减少总量	林地开垦	草地开垦	水域转耕地	工矿建设用地转耕地	未利用地开垦	增加总量
东北平原区	-52.38	-39.17	-10.01	-46.75	-7.70	-156.02	84.86	52.68	13.71	10.63	83.13	245.02	89.00
云贵高原区	-32.34	-9.61	-4.02	-25.77	-0.00	-71.75	5.99	17.11	0.45	0.03	0.06	23.63	-48.12
北方干旱半干旱区	-33.39	-128.40	-9.41	-36.63	-19.38	-227.21	47.17	442.35	11.68	1.38	203.62	706.20	478.99
华南区	-22.09	-0.24	-13.85	-153.11	-0.53	-189.81	5.62	0.53	1.06	0.12	1.11	8.45	-181.36
四川盆地及周边地区	-25.38	-9.98	-4.10	-85.34	-0.07	-124.86	0.43	1.20	0.06	0.00	0.01	1.69	-123.17
长江中下游地区	-27.24	-1.80	-160.49	-724.44	-2.15	-916.13	20.50	3.86	30.86	1.10	0.92	57.24	-858.89
青藏高原区	-0.14	-3.30	-0.44	-2.56	-0.00	-6.44	0.25	1.45	0.00	0.00	0.11	1.80	-4.63
黄土高原区	-46.17	-48.20	-16.82	-62.47	-0.28	-173.94	0.55	4.19	6.71	0.00	1.18	12.62	-161.32
黄淮海平原区	-15.03	-0.78	-74.47	-452.66	-1.18	-544.12	1.81	13.06	18.09	1.58	10.62	45.17	-498.95
全国	-254.17	-241.49	-293.60	-1589.74	-31.29	-2410.28	167.18	536.42	82.62	14.85	300.76	1101.83	-1308.45

1990-2010年中国耕地变化对粮食生产潜力的影响

Impact of farmland changes on production potential in China during recent two decades

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