地理学报

地理学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 67 ›› Issue (3): 312-320.doi: 10.11821/xb201203003

• 气候变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

新疆地区最大连续降水事件时空变化特征

李剑锋1,2,3, 张强1,2,3, 白云岗4, 张江辉4   

  1. 1. 中山大学水资源与环境系, 广州 510275;
    2. 中山大学华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室, 广州 510275;
    3. 中山大学地理科学与规划学院, 广东省城市化与地理环境空间模拟重点实验室, 广州 510275;
    4. 新疆水利水电科学研究院, 乌鲁木齐 830049
  • 收稿日期:2011-09-08 修回日期:2012-11-08 出版日期:2012-03-20 发布日期:2012-03-20
  • 通讯作者: 张强(1974-), 男, 山东沂水人, 博士, 教授, 博士生导师, 主要从事流域气象水文学研究、旱涝灾害机理、流域地表水文过程的研究工作。E-mail: zhangq68@mail.sysu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    新疆科技项目(201001066; 200931105); 国家自然科学基金项目(41071020; 50839005) 资助

Spatio-temporal Probability Behaviors of the Maximum Consecutive Wet Days in Xinjiang, China

LI Jianfeng1,2,3, ZHANG Qiang1,2,3, BAI Yungang4, ZHANG Jianghui4   

  1. 1. Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;
    3. School of Geography and Planning, and Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;
    4. Xinjiang Research Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower, Urumqi 830049, China
  • Received:2011-09-08 Revised:2012-11-08 Online:2012-03-20 Published:2012-03-20
  • Supported by:
    Xinjiang Technology Program, No.201001066; 200931105; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41071020; No.50839005)

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47 | 17

摘要： 基于新疆51 个站点1960-2005 年的日降水资料,从最大连续降水事件出发,以年、夏、冬为研究时期,定义描绘最大连续降水事件的日数、降水量和降水强度的9 个极端降水指标,研究最大连续降水事件的时空概率特征。本文应用改进的Mann-Kendall 法对各指标变化趋势进行检验,采用基于F 检验的线形分析计算其变化率。研究结果表明:(1) 年和夏季最容易发生2 天的最大连续降水天数,最大连续降水事件日数越长,降水强度越低;冬季易发生1 天的最大连续降水天数,随最大连续降水事件日数的增加,降水强度增加;(2) 近年来,日数短的连续降水天数事件频率减少,而随降水日数的增加;降水量有增加趋势;因此,新疆降水有极端化的趋势;(3) 新疆有湿润化趋势,而南疆在夏季的湿润趋势比北疆明显,北疆在冬季比南疆显著。

关键词: 最大连续降水, 极端降水, Mann-Kendall检验, 气候变化, 新疆

Abstract: Based on the daily precipitation data from 51 rain stations in Xinjiang during 1960-2005, the spatial and temporal possibility variations of maximum consecutive wet days in the whole year, summer and winter seasons are studied. Nine precipitation extreme indices which reflect the attributes of consecutive maximum wet days are defined, modified Mann-Kendall test is applied to detect the tendencies, and changing rates of indices are evaluated through linear regression with F test. Results show that: (1) two days consecutive wet days occurred most frequently during the year and summer, and the precipitation intensities decreased as the number of days of maximum consecutive wet days increased; in winter, one day consecutive wet days had the maximum possibility, and the intensities increased as the number of days of the maximum consecutive wet days increased; (2) the possibilities of consecutive wet days with short durations reduced, while those of the large number of days increased; the precipitation of consecutive wet days had increasing trends; the intensities of all numbers of days increased; (3) a wet tendency was identified in Xinjiang; wet trend in Southern Xinjiang was more significant than in Northern Xinjiang in summer, while in winter the wet tendency in Northern Xinjiang was more remarkable.

Key words: maximum consecutive wet days, precipitation extreme, Mann-Kendall test, climate change, Xinjiang