黄河源区径流对气候变化的响应及未来趋势预测

doi:10.11821/xb201109011

地理学报 ›› 2011, Vol. 66 ›› Issue (9): 1261-1269.doi: 10.11821/xb201109011

黄河源区径流对气候变化的响应及未来趋势预测

李林^1,2, 申红艳^1,2, 戴升^1,2, 肖建设², 时兴合^1,2

1. 青海省气候中心, 西宁 810001;
2. 青海省防灾减灾实验室, 西宁 810001

收稿日期:2011-06-14 修回日期:2011-07-12 出版日期:2011-09-20 发布日期:2011-09-20
作者简介:李林(1971-), 男, 甘肃永登人, 高级工程师, 硕士, 主要从事气候变化及其对水资源、生态系统的影响评估与适应对策研究。E-mail: qhxnll@sohu.com
基金资助:
中国气象局气候变化专项项目(CCSF2010-05); (CCSF2011-01)

Response to Climate Change and Prediction of Runoff in the Source Region of Yellow River

LI Lin^1,2, SHEN Hongyan^1,2, DAI Sheng^1,2, XIAO Jianshe², SHI Xinghe^1,2

1. Qinghai Climate Centre, Xining 810001, China;
2. Qinghai Key Laboratory of Disaster Preventing and Reducing, Xining 810001, China

Received:2011-06-14 Revised:2011-07-12 Online:2011-09-20 Published:2011-09-20
Supported by:
Climate Change Science Foundation No. CCSF2010-05;No. CCSF2011-01

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用1956-2010 年黄河源区流域水文、气象观测数据和2010-2030 年区域气候模式系统PRECIS输出数据降尺度生成的未来气候情景资料,通过分析流量的演变规律和揭示气候归因,预测了未来流量可能的演变趋势。研究表明：近55 年来黄河源区年平均流量总体呈减少趋势,并具有5a、8a、15a、22a 和42a 的准周期变化;南海夏季风减弱引起流域降水量的减少与全球变暖背景下蒸发量的增大和冻土的退化是导致黄河源区流量减少的气候归因;根据区域气候模式系统PRECIS预测结果,未来20 年黄河源区流量变化趋势可能仍以减少为主。

关键词: 气候变化, 地表水资源, 季风, 冻土, 气候模式, 黄河源区

Abstract: The hydrological and meteorological data of the source region of Yellow River from 1956 to 2010 and future climate scenarios from regional climate model (PRECIS) during 2010-2020 are used to analyze the flow variations and revealing the climate causes, and to predict the variation trend for future flows. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows. 1) Annual mean flow shows a decreasing trend in recent 50 years in the source region of Yellow River, and there are periods of 5a, 8a, 15a, 22a and 42a. 2) The precipitation decrease due to the weakened South China Sea summer monsoon as well as the increasing evaporation and the degenerating frozen soil in global warming are the climate origin of decreasing flow. 3) Based on the regional climate model PRECIS prediction, the flows in the source region of Yellow River are likely to decrease in the next 20 years.

Key words: climate change, surface water resource, monsoon, frozen soil, climate model, the source region of Yellow River

李林, 申红艳, 戴升, 肖建设, 时兴合. 黄河源区径流对气候变化的响应及未来趋势预测[J]. 地理学报, 2011, 66(9): 1261-1269.

LI Lin, SHEN Hongyan, DAI Sheng, XIAO Jianshe, SHI Xinghe. Response to Climate Change and Prediction of Runoff in the Source Region of Yellow River[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(9): 1261-1269.

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黄河源区径流对气候变化的响应及未来趋势预测

Response to Climate Change and Prediction of Runoff in the Source Region of Yellow River

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