基于STIRPAT模型分析CO2控制下上海城市发展模式

doi:10.11821/xb201008009

地理学报 ›› 2010, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (8): 983-990.doi: 10.11821/xb201008009

基于STIRPAT模型分析CO₂控制下上海城市发展模式

燕华, 郭运功, 林逢春

华东师范大学资源与环境科学学院,上海200062

收稿日期:2009-09-17 修回日期:2010-05-07 出版日期:2010-08-20 发布日期:2010-08-20
通讯作者: 林逢春(1970-), 男, 副教授, E-mail: fclin2005@gmail.com
作者简介:燕华(1984-), 女, 山东聊城人, 硕士研究生, 主要从事环境规划与管理、环境影响评价研究。 E-mail: yanhua-1960@163.com

Analyzing the Developing Model of Chinese Cities under the Control of CO₂ Emissions Using the STIRPAT Model:A Case Study of Shanghai

YAN Hua, GUO Yungong, LIN Fengchun

School of Resources and Environmental Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China

Received:2009-09-17 Revised:2010-05-07 Online:2010-08-20 Published:2010-08-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着经济的快速发展,中国CO₂排放量不断增加,研究中国各大城市采取何种发展模式,减缓CO₂的排放量,成为当前研究热点。利用STIRPAT模型,定量分析了CO₂排放量与人口、富裕度、城市化水平和技术进步之间的关系,并经岭回归拟合发现人口数量、人均 GDP、城市化水平和技术进步每发生1%的变化,将引起CO₂ 排放总量相应发生0.618%、 (0.178+0.009lnA)%、0.816%和0.264%的变化。在上述研究的基础上,以上海市为例,通过设置10 种不同的发展情景,分析了在何种情景下最有利于减缓CO₂的排放。结果表明,当经济、人口保持中速增长,城市化率进程放缓而节能减排技术取得较大进步时,上海市最有利于减缓CO₂排放量,此时上海市2010 年、2015 年和2020 年CO₂排放量分别为17053.57 万t、19286.64 万t和20885.69 万t。

关键词: STIRPAT模型, CO₂排放量, 影响因素, 发展情景, 中国, 上海

Abstract:

With the economic development and increasing emissions of CO₂, the study has become one of hotspots in the developing model of Chinese cities in order to slow down CO₂ emissions. Using the STIRPAT model, this paper analyzed the impact of population, affluence, urbanization and technology on the total CO₂ emissions, and the results showed that 1% change of population, per capita GDP, urbanization and technology would cause a corresponding occurrence of 0.618%, (0.178+0.009lnA)%, 0.816% and 0.264% change in the total CO₂ emissions. Based on this study, taking Shanghai as an example, it set 10 developing scenarios and analyzed the best model of reducing CO₂ emissions. Results show that under the scenario of economy, population in mid-speed, low urbanization and high technology, it would be best for Shanghai to reduce CO₂ emissions, and the emissions of CO₂ in 2010, 2015, 2020 would be 17053.57, 19286.64, 20885.69 ten thousands tons, respectively.

Key words: STIRPAT model, CO₂ emissions, impact factor, developing scenario

燕华, 郭运功, 林逢春. 基于STIRPAT模型分析CO₂控制下上海城市发展模式[J]. 地理学报, 2010, 65(8): 983-990.

YAN Hua, GUO Yungong, LIN Fengchun. Analyzing the Developing Model of Chinese Cities under the Control of CO₂ Emissions Using the STIRPAT Model:A Case Study of Shanghai[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(8): 983-990.

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基于STIRPAT模型分析CO₂控制下上海城市发展模式

Analyzing the Developing Model of Chinese Cities under the Control of CO₂ Emissions Using the STIRPAT Model:A Case Study of Shanghai

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