• 人口与城市 •

### 基于集对分析的大庆市经济系统脆弱性评价

1. 1. 中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所， 长春130012;
2. 中国科学院研究生院， 北京100049
• 收稿日期:2009-07-13 修回日期:2009-10-01 出版日期:2010-04-25 发布日期:2010-04-25
• 通讯作者: 张平宇, 研究员, 博士生导师, 主要从事城市与区域发展研究。E-mail: zhangpy@neigae.ac.cn
• 作者简介:苏飞(1982-), 男, 博士生, 主要从事城市与区域发展、环境与发展研究。E-mail: sufei@neigae.ac.cn
• 基金资助:

国家自然科学基金重点项目(40635030); 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-342; KZCX2-YW-321-04); 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2004CB418507)

### Vulnerability Assessment of Petroleum City's Economic System Based on Set Pair Analysis:A Case Study of Daqing city

SU Fei1,2; ZHANG Ping-yu1

1. 1.Northeast Institute of Geography and Agricultural Ecology; CAS; Changchun 130012; China;
• Received:2009-07-13 Revised:2009-10-01 Online:2010-04-25 Published:2010-04-25
• Supported by:

National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40635030; Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.KZCX2-YW-342, No.KZCX2-YW-321-04; National Basic Research Program of China, No.2004CB418507

Abstract:

Set pair analysis (SPA) is to study the certain and uncertain relationship among different things and is introduced to assess the economic system vulnerability (ESV) of petroleum city,through which the approximate degree of ESV to the optimal set is calculated to describe the vulnerable level of the economic system by combining multiple indices.Vulnerability analysis framework in sustainability science has many properties of multi-scale,multi-element,multi-flow and multi-cycle,which presents a new research paradigm for petroleum cities.Based on a detailed discussion about the conception of ESV,the essay establishes an economic system vulnerability assessment model of petroleum cities from the aspects of sensitivity to and response capacity for the gradual depletion of the regional minable petroleum resources by using the SPA.Then it uses entropy method to evaluate the indicators and to calculate their weights for assessment of the ESV of petroleum city.Taking Daqing city as an example,this paper analyses the economic system vulnerability during the period of 1991-2007.The results indicate that the ESV of Daqing city shows a declining trend since 1991,from 0.619 in 1991 to 0.402 in 2007.The influence of response capacity on Daqing\'s economic system vulnerability is more evident than that of sensitivity.Growth rate of crude oil production,GDP per capita and overall labor productivity are the leading factors for the economic system vulnerability of Daqing city.The results of obstacle degree of regional response capacity indicate that the density of fixed asset investment was the most important obstacle factor during 1991-2005,and that the restriction of the industrial structure mainly appeared before 2000.The conclusions are that the economic system vulnerability of Daqing city is declining,but still at the vulnerable level.So,Daqing city should put emphases on the development of the sensitive and obstacle factors.

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