地理学报

地理学报 ›› 2009, Vol. 64 ›› Issue (7): 871-878.doi: 10.11821/xb200907011

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国天气发生器降水模拟参数的气候变化特征

廖要明1, 2,  陈德亮3,  高歌2,  谢云1   

  1. 1. 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室，地理学与遥感科学学院，北京100875；
    2．中国气象局气候研究开放实验室，国家气候中心，北京100081；
    3. 哥德堡大学地球科学中心，瑞典
  • 收稿日期:2009-03-03 修回日期:2009-04-02 出版日期:2009-07-25 发布日期:2009-07-25
  • 作者简介:廖要明 (1972-), 男, 在职博士生, 高级工程师, 主要从事统计降尺度技术和气候影响评估等科研、业务工作。E-mail: lymzxr@cma.gov.cn
  • 基金资助:

    瑞典STINT基金会资助项目; 中国气象局气候变化专项 (CCSF2006-6-1)

Impacts of Climate Changes on Parameters of a Weather Generator for Daily Precipitation in China

LIAO Yaoming1, 2,  CHEN Deliang3,  GAO Ge1,  XIE Yun2   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 10087; China
    2. Laboratory for Climate Studies/National Climate Center, CMA, Beijing, 100081; China
    3. On leave from Department of Sciences, University of Gothenburg, 405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden
  • Received:2009-03-03 Revised:2009-04-02 Online:2009-07-25 Published:2009-07-25
  • Supported by:

    The Swedish Foundation for International Cooperation in Research and High Education; Climate Change Special Foundation, No.CCSF2006-6-1

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摘要：

利用中国672个站点1951-2007年的逐日降水资料，分1951-1978和1979-2007两个时段分析了中国天气发生器BCC/RCG-WG降水模拟参数的气候变化特征。结果表明，在气候变化背景条件下，我国各地干日到湿日的降水转移概率P(WD) 和湿日到湿日的降水转移概率P(WW) 除了西部部分地区有增大的趋势外，其余大部地区均有减小的趋势。相对于P(WW)，全国各地P(WD) 的减小幅度更大。日降水量GAMMA分布形态参数ALPHA除西北地区西部部分地区有减小趋势外，其余大部地区略有增大趋势，尺度参数BETA在全国各地基本都保持增大的趋势，其中西北地区西部等地增大趋势尤为明显。相对于BETA的变化幅度，ALPHA的减小幅度较小，基本在6%以内。

关键词: 天气发生器, 降水, 气候变化, 中国

Abstract:

Parameters of BCC/RCG-WG for daily precipitation simulation at 672 stations in China are calculated with historic daily precipitation data from 1951 to 1978 and from 1979 to 2007 respectively. Two sets of four parameters for the two periods are compared to review the impact of climate change on the parameters. The results show that transition probabilities from dry to wet and from wet to wet in most parts of China have a decreasing trend except parts of western China. The decreasing range of P(WW) in most parts of China are less than that of P(WD). Shape parameter ALPHA of GAMMA distribution of daily precipitation in most parts of China has a slightly increasing trend except parts of western Northwest China. Scale parameter BETA of GAMMA distribution of daily precipitation in most China, especially in parts of western Northwest China, has an obviously increasing trend. Compared with BETA, the changes of ALPHA are generally smaller (within 6%) in most China. Changes of parameters of daily precipitation simulation in each month and season are also analyzed, which shows a regional and seasonal difference.

Key words: weather generator, precipitation, climate change, China