关键词: 奥地利, 人口变化, 空间特征, 近50年

Abstract:

The aim of the present paper is to analyze the main trends of population change and its spatial variations and patterns in Austria within the last 50 years, from the first population census after World War II in 1951 to the most recent census in 2001. The 2001 population census will be the last 'conventionally organized' census in a long series of modern Austrian population censuses, which started in 1869. The next Austrian population census to be held in 2011 will be - corresponding to similar trends in a growing number of countries in Western and Northern Europe - primarily register-based. The overall demographic trends in Austria within the second half of the 20th century correspond more or less to the general changes that have taken place in many other industrial nations. Thus Austria shares with the majority of European countries an ever increasing life expectancy, a continuously declining fertility rate, a dramatically increasing proportion of older people (by 2035, every third resident will be over 60 years old) and an ongoing concentration of population in urban areas. Three aspects of population change in Austria are analyzed in this paper: population change in Austria in general during the last five decades and its underlying factors; the contrasting spatial patterns of population change in the Western and Eastern parts of Austria; and finally a more detailed analysis of growth regions and regions with population decline. The main results of this paper are: The Western parts of Austria, especially the larger urban regions within the Western Austrian Alps, have shown the strongest population growth during the last 50 years. The most important factor of population growth in Western Austria has been the positive balance of birth. Fertility rates in Western Austria, however, have been falling continuously during the study period, but are still higher than in most other areas of Austria. As far as the future demographic developments in Austria are concerned, it can be assumed that the trends of the second half of the 20th century will be continuing. In contrast to other European countries like Germany or Italy, however, Austria's population will still be growing approximately for the next three decades, although very moderately and only by immigration. Thus the population of Austria is expected to grow from 8.03 million inhabitants in 2001 to approximately 8.43 million by the year 2027. In the long run, however, Austria will be no exception from the European demographic trends: According to Statistics and changing factor analysis, an outlook to the year 2075 shows a decline in the number of population to 7.54 million inhabitants in Austria. Thus, in approximately seven decades, Austria will have about half a million fewer inhabitants than in 2001, a figure that was last recorded in 1980.

Key words: Austria, population dynamics, spatial differences, last 50 years