近40年中国暖季日气温及其异常强度变化趋势

doi:10.11821/xb20037s003

地理学报 ›› 2003, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (7s): 21-30.doi: 10.11821/xb20037s003

近40年中国暖季日气温及其异常强度变化趋势

林祥,钱维宏

北京大学物理学院大气科学系，北京 100871

收稿日期:2003-03-01 修回日期:2003-04-26 出版日期:2003-12-25 发布日期:2003-12-25
作者简介:林祥 (1979-), 男, 硕士研究生, 北京大学物理学院大气科学系。Email: pkulx@tom.com
基金资助:
国家教育部博士点基金(No.20010001052)；国家基础发展规划项目(No.G1999043405)

Trends on the Daily Mean Air Temperature and Its Anomalous Strength in China for the Warm Season in the Last 40 Years

LIN Xiang, QIAN Weihong

Department of Atmospheric Science, College of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China

Received:2003-03-01 Revised:2003-04-26 Online:2003-12-25 Published:2003-12-25
Supported by:
The Ministry of Education of China, No.20010001052; National Key Project for Basic Sciences, No.G1999043405

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用中国大陆453个测站1961~2000年的逐日平均气温资料，通过标准差和Skewness系数计算日气温距平强度,反映中国近40年来暖季 (5-9月) 气候变化趋势。近40年中国暖季增温的幅度有南北差异，以黄河流域为界，北边高纬增温更强烈;平均气温趋势有前后两段的显著差别，大致在1970年代后期实现向增温趋势的转变;最强的增温出现在1990年代以后。多数区域气温反映出季节内气候变率增大，显示暖季日平均气温趋于大的涨落。日气温距平和降水有良好的对应关系。由于降水时的气温降幅较大，故暖季中天气过程的降温和持续高温一样是季节内气候变率的重要信号，这在低纬沿海地区 (如华南、云南) 尤为明显。

关键词: 逐日气温, 气候变率, 趋势, 中国

Abstract:

Trends on the daily mean air temperature and its anomalous strength in China for the warm season (May-September) in the last 40 years (1961-2000) were analyzed using observational 453-station datasets including daily temperature and daily precipitation. Calculation methods are standard deviation and Skewness. Results show that there were different spatial-temporal characteristics in the daily air temperature variability. In the last 40 years, a warming trend was commonly noted in China but the stronger warming was located in the area north of the Yellow River. For the time evolution, a transition time point was found in the late 1970s from a cooling trend to a warming trend but the stronger warming appeared since the late 1990s. The amplifying daily temperature anomaly indicated a trend of climate variability in many places of China. The relationships between daily air temperature and rainfall events were also discussed particularly in the coastal regions.

Key words: daily temperature, climate variability, trend, China

林祥,钱维宏. 近40年中国暖季日气温及其异常强度变化趋势[J]. 地理学报, 2003, 58(7s): 21-30.

LIN Xiang, QIAN Weihong. Trends on the Daily Mean Air Temperature and Its Anomalous Strength in China for the Warm Season in the Last 40 Years[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(7s): 21-30.

参考文献

[1] IPCC, Climatic Change, '92, '95: The Science of Climate Change. Houghton J T, Callauder B A, Varoey S K (eds.). Cambridge Univ. Press, 1992, 1995.

[2] Jones P D, New M, Paker D E et al. Surface air temperature and its change over the past 150 years. Rev. Geophys., 1999, 37(2): 173-200.

[3] IPCC. Climatic Change 1995: Technical Summary of the Working Group I Report. Houghton J T, Filho L G,Callauder B A et al. (eds.). Cambidge Univ. Press, 1996. 48.

[4] Wei F Y, Cao H X. Detection of the abrupt change and trend prediction of the air temperature in China, the North Hemisphere and the Globe. Scientia Atmospherica Sinica, 1995, 19(2): 140-148.
[魏凤英, 曹鸿兴. 中国、北半球和全球的气温突变分析及其趋势预测研究. 大气科学, 1995, 19(2): 140-148.]

[5] Ding Y H, Dai X S. Temperature variation in China during the last 100 years. Meteorological Monthly, 1994, 12(1): 19-26.
[丁一汇, 戴晓苏. 中国近百年来的温度变化. 气象, 1994, 12(1): 19-26.]

[6] Zhang M L, Zeng S M, Ji J J. Characters of regional temperature in East Asia during global warming period. Acta Geographica Sinica, 1996, 51(6): 518-526.
[章名立, 曾少美, 季劲钧. 全球增暖过程中亚洲区域气候的特点. 地理学报, 1996, 51(6): 518-526.]

[7] Qian W H, Zhu Y F. Climate change in China from 1880 to 1998 and its impact on the environmental condition. Climatic Change, 2001, 50(3): 419-444.

[8] Katze R W, Brown B G. Extreme events in an changing climate: variability is more important than average. Climatic Change, 1992, 21(2): 289-302.

[9] Ding Y H, Zhang J, Song Y F. Changes in weather and climate extreme events and their association with the global warming. Meteorological Monthly, 2002, 28(3): 3-7.
[丁一汇, 张锦, 宋亚芳. 天气和气候极端事件的联系及其与全球变暖的联系. 气象, 2002, 28(3): 3-7.]

[10] Zhai P M, Sun A J, Ren F M et al. Changes of climate extremes in China. Climatic Change, 1999, 42(2): 203-218.

[11] Ren F M, Zhai P M. Changes of maximum and minimum temperatures during the past 40 years in China. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 1997, 55(4): 418-429.
[翟盘茂, 任福民. 中国近40年最高最低温度变化. 气象学报, 1997, 55(4): 418-429.]

[12] Zhai P M, Ren F M. Study on change of China's extreme temperature during 1951-1990. Scientia Atmospherica Sinica, 1998, 22(2): 216-227.
[任福民, 翟盘茂. 1951~1990年中国极端气温变化分析. 大气科学, 1998, 22(2): 216-227.]

[13] Yan Z W, Jones P D, Moberg A et al. Recent trends in weather and seasonal cycles, an analysis of daily data from Europe and China. J. Geophy. Res., 2001, 106: 5234-5138.

[14] Gong D Y, Chang H H, Dong M. Intra-seasonal variability of wintertime temperature over East Asia. International J. Climatology, 2003.

[15] Yan Z W, Yang C, Jones P. Influence of inhomogeneity on the estimation of mean and extreme temperature trend in Beijing and Shanghai. Advance in Atmospheric Science, 2001, 18(3): 309-322.
[严中伟, 杨赤. Jones P. 观测序列的不均一性对估算北京和上海平均温度和极端温度变化趋势的影响. 大气科学进展, 2001, 18(3): 309-322.]

[16] Epstein E S. Determining the optimum number of harmonics to represent normals based on multiyear data. J. Climate, 1991, 4: 1047-1051.

[17] Wilks D S. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Introduction. San Diego: Academic Press, 1995. 468.

近40年中国暖季日气温及其异常强度变化趋势

Trends on the Daily Mean Air Temperature and Its Anomalous Strength in China for the Warm Season in the Last 40 Years

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

被引次数

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	古恒宇, 沈体雁. 中国高学历人才的空间演化特征及驱动因素[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(2): 326-340.
[2]	朱晟君, 金文纨. 地方出口产品结构及制度环境与企业出口相关多样化[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(2): 398-414.
[3]	李钢, 薛淑艳, 马雪瑶, 周俊俊, 徐婷婷, 王皎贝. 中国失踪人口的时空格局演变与形成机制[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(2): 310-325.
[4]	葛全胜, 朱会义. 两千年来中国自然与人文地理环境变迁及启示[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(1): 3-14.
[5]	张兴航, 张百平, 王晶, 余付勤, 赵超, 姚永慧. 中国南北过渡带东段样带植被序列与气候分界问题[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(1): 30-43.
[6]	李哲, 丁永建, 陈艾姣, 张智华, 张世强. 1960—2019年西北地区气候变化中的Hiatus现象及特征[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(9): 1845-1859.
[7]	郭泽呈, 魏伟, 石培基, 周亮, 王旭峰, 李振亚, 庞素菲, 颉斌斌. 中国西北干旱区土地沙漠化敏感性时空格局[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(9): 1948-1965.
[8]	敖荣军, 常亮. 基于结构方程模型的中国县域人口老龄化影响机制[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(8): 1572-1584.
[9]	宋周莺, 祝巧玲. 中国边境地区的城镇化格局及其驱动力[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(8): 1603-1616.
[10]	马春玥, 买买提·沙吾提, 姚杰, 古丽努尔·依沙克. 1950—2015年中国棉花生产时空动态变化[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(8): 1699-1710.
[11]	郑景云, 张学珍, 刘洋, 郝志新. 过去千年中国不同区域干湿的多尺度变化特征评估[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(7): 1432-1450.
[12]	陶泽兴, 葛全胜, 王焕炯. 1963—2018年中国垂柳和榆树开花始期积温需求的时空变化[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(7): 1451-1464.
[13]	瞿诗进, 胡守庚, 李全峰. 中国城市建设用地转型阶段及其空间格局[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(7): 1539-1553.
[14]	葛全胜, 方创琳, 江东. 美丽中国建设的地理学使命与人地系统耦合路径[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(6): 1109-1119.
[15]	魏素豪, 李晶, 李泽怡, 宗刚. 中国农业竞争力时空格局演化及其影响因素[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(6): 1287-1300.