BCC/RCG-WG天气发生器非降水变量模拟参数气候变化特征

doi:10.11821/xb201303012

地理学报 ›› 2013, Vol. 68 ›› Issue (3): 414-427.doi: 10.11821/xb201303012

BCC/RCG-WG天气发生器非降水变量模拟参数气候变化特征

廖要明^1,2, 陈德亮³, 谢云²

1. 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室, 国家气候中心, 北京 100081;
2. 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 地理学与遥感科学学院, 北京 100875;
3. 哥德堡大学地球科学中心, 瑞典

收稿日期:2012-10-22 修回日期:2012-12-26 出版日期:2013-03-20 发布日期:2013-03-20
作者简介:廖要明(1972-), 男, 博士, 高级工程师, 主要从事统计降尺度和气候影响评估研究.E-mail: lymzxr@cma.gov.cn
基金资助:
2011 年公益性行业(气象) 科研专项(GYHY201106018); 瑞典STINT 基金会资助项目

Impacts of climate changes on parameters of weather generator BCC/RCG-WG for daily non-precipitation variables simulation in China

LIAO Yaoming^1,2, CHEN Deliang³, XIE Yun²

1. Laboratory for Climate Studies/National Climate Center, CMA, Beijing 100081, China;
2. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
3. Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, 405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden

Received:2012-10-22 Revised:2012-12-26 Online:2013-03-20 Published:2013-03-20
Supported by:
The Special Scientific Research Fund of Meteorological Public Welfare Profession of China, No.GYHY201106018; The Swedish Foundation for International Cooperation in Research and High Education

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用中国699 个气象站点1951-2007 年的逐日最高气温、最低气温和日照时数资料,分1951-1978 年和1979-2007 年两个时段分析了气候变化对BCC/RCG-WG天气发生器中我国各地逐日非降水变量模拟参数的影响.结果表明,最高气温、最低气温和日照时数三个变量平均值傅立叶级数展开式的年平均值和基波振幅较标准差傅立叶级数展开式的年平均值和基波振幅的变化幅度明显偏大,而平均值傅立叶级数展开式的基波位相变化幅度较标准差的基波位相变化幅度明显偏小;三个变量当天以及后延一天之间的相关系数的绝对变化较小.说明在气候变化背景下,最高气温等三个非降水变量的年平均值和年内变幅有明显的变化,而三个变量年际间的变异、峰值出现时间以及各变量之间的相关性变化较小.

关键词: BCC/RCG-WG天气发生器, 非降水变量, 模拟参数, 气候变化, 中国

Abstract: Parameters of daily non-precipitation variables including maximum temperature, minimum temperature and sunshine hours simulation at 699 stations in China of weather generator BCC/RCG-WG are estimated using historical daily records from 1951 to 1978 and from 1979 to 2007 respectively. The two sets of parameters for the two periods are compared to explore the impact of climate change on these parameters. The results show that the parameters of non-precipitation variables have experienced different changes, while the annual means and the amplitudes of the seasonal cycle show a significant change, and the interannual variability, seasonal timing and temporal correlations for each variable remain practically unchanged. This indicates that climate change in China in terms of these variables are mainly reflected in changes in the means and in the strength of the seasonal cycles. The changed parameters have implications for the stationarity assumption implied in the parameter estimation and use of the weather generator.

Key words: BCC/RCG-WG weather generator, non-precipitation variables, climate change, parameters, China

廖要明, 陈德亮, 谢云. BCC/RCG-WG天气发生器非降水变量模拟参数气候变化特征[J]. 地理学报, 2013, 68(3): 414-427.

LIAO Yaoming, CHEN Deliang, XIE Yun. Impacts of climate changes on parameters of weather generator BCC/RCG-WG for daily non-precipitation variables simulation in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2013, 68(3): 414-427.

参考文献

[1] Liao Yaoming, Zhang Qiang, Chen Deliang. Stochastic modeling of daily precipitation in China. Journal ofGeographical Sciences, 2004, 14(4): 417-426.

[2] Liao Yaoming, Zhang Qiang, Chen Deliang. Precipitation simulation in China with a weather generator. ActaGeographica Sinica, 2004, 59(5): 689-698. [廖要明, 张强, 陈德亮. 中国天气发生器的降水模拟. 地理学报, 2004, 59(5): 689-698.]

[3] Liao Yaoming, Liu Lüliu, Chen Deliang et al. An evaluation of the BCC/RCG-WG's performance in simulating dailynon-precipitation variables in China. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2011, 69(2): 310-319. [廖要明, 刘绿柳, 陈德亮等. 中国天气发生器(BCC/RCG-WG) 模拟非降水变量的效果评估. 气象学报, 2011, 69(2): 310-319.]

[4] Liao Yaoming, Pan Xuebiao, Zhang Qiang et al. Daily precipitation simulation and its application on crop productionclimate risk analysis. Acta Abriculturae Boreali Sinica, 2006, 21(Suppl.): 206-212. [廖要明, 潘学标, 张强等. 逐日降水量的模拟及其在作物气候风险分析中的应用. 华北农学报, 2006, 21(增刊): 206-212.]

[5] Chen Longxun, Zhu Wenqin, Wang Wen et al. Studies on climate change in China in recent 45 years. ActaMeteorologica Sinica, 1998, 56(3): 257-271. [陈隆勋, 朱文琴, 王文等. 中国近45 年来气候变化的研究. 气象学报,1998, 56(3): 257-271.]

[6] Fan Lijun, Fu Congbin, Chen Deliang. Review on creating future climate change scenarios by statistical downscalingtechniques. Advances in Earth Science, 2005, 20(3): 320-329. [范丽军, 符淙斌, 陈德亮. 统计降尺度法对未来区域气候变化情景预估的研究进展. 地球科学进展, 2005, 20(3): 320-329.]

[7] Ju Hui, Xiong Wei, Xu Yinlong. Impacts of climate change on wheat yield in China. Acta Agronomica Sinica, 2005, 31(10): 1340-1343. [居辉, 熊伟, 许吟隆. 气候变化对我国小麦产量的影响. 作物学报, 2005, 31(10): 1340-1343.]

[8] Lin Erda, Xu Yinlong, Jiang Jinhe et al. National assessment report of climate change (II): Climate change impacts andadaptation. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2006, 2(2): 51-56. [林而达, 许吟隆, 蒋金荷等. 气候变化国家评估报告(II): 气候变化的影响与适应. 气候变化研究进展, 2006, 2(2): 51-56.]

[9] Zhang Qiang, Han Yongxiang, Song Lianchun. The summarize of development of global climate change and its effectfactors. Advances in Earth Science, 2005, 20(9): 990-998. [张强, 韩永翔, 宋连春. 全球气候变化及其影响因素研究进展综述. 地球科学进展, 2005, 20(9): 990-998.]

[10] Chen D, Achberger C, Postg?rd U et al. Using a weather generator to create future daily precipitation scenarios forSweden [D]. Earth Sciences Centre, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden, 2008: 82.

[11] Paeth.H, Diederich M. Postprocessing of simulated precipitation for impact research in West Africa (Part II): Aweather generator for daily data. Climate Dynamics, 2011, 36: 1337-1348.

[12] Bouraoui F, Vachaud G, Li X Z et al. Evaluation of the impact of climate changes on water storage and groundwaterrecharge at the watershed scale. Climate Dynamics, 1999, 15: 153-161.

[13] Sharif M, Burn D H. Simulating climate change scenarios using an improved K-nearest neighbor model. Journal ofHydrology, 2006, 325: 179-196

[14] Lin Erda, Zhang Houxuan, Wang Jinghua et al. Simulation of Effects of Global Climate Change on China Agriculture.Beijing: China Agricultural Science and Technology Press, 1997. [林而达, 张厚瑄, 王京华等. 全球气候变化对中国农业影响的模拟. 北京: 中国农业科技出版社, 1997.]

[15] Zhai Panmao, Ren Fumin, Zhang Qiang. Detection of trends in China's precipitation extremes. Acta MeteorologicaSinica, 1999, 57(2): 208-216. [翟盘茂, 任福民, 张强. 中国降水极值变化趋势检测. 气象学报, 1999, 57(2): 208-216.]

[16] Zhai P M, Sun A J, Ren F M et al. Changes of climate extremes in China. Climate Change, 1999, 42(1): 203-218.

[17] Yan Zhongwei, Yang Chi. Geographic patterns of extreme climate changes in China during 1951-1997. Climatic andEnvironmental Research, 2000, 5(3): 267-272. [严中伟, 杨赤. 近几十年中国极端气候变化格局. 气候与环境研究,2000, 5(3): 267-272.]

[18] Ren Guoyu, Chen Yu, Zou Xukai et al. Definition and trend analysis of an integrated extreme climatic index. Climaticand Environmental Research, 2010, 15(4): 354-364. [任国玉, 陈峪, 邹旭恺等. 综合极端气候指数的定义和趋势分析. 气候与环境研究, 2010, 15(4): 354-364.]

[19] Liao Yaoming, Chen Deliang, Xie Yun. Spatial and temporal distribution of dry spells in China. Acta GeographicaSinica, 2012, 67(3): 321-336. [廖要明, 陈德亮, 谢云. 中国日降水量小于不同阈值日数时空分布特征. 地理学报,2012, 67(3): 321-336.]

[20] Ding Yuguo, Liu Jifeng, Zhang Yaocun. Simulation tests of temporal-spatial distribution of extreme temperatures overChina based on probability weighted moments estimation. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2004, 28(5):771-782. [丁裕国, 刘吉峰, 张耀存. 基于概率加权估计的中国极端气温时空分布模拟试验. 大气科学, 2004, 28(5):771-782.]

[21] Zhang Yaocun, Zhang Lujun. Precipitation and temperature probability characteristics in climatic and ecologicaltransition zone of Northeast China in recent 50 years. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2005, 25(5): 561-566. [张耀存, 张录军. 东北气候和生态过渡区近50 年来降水和温度概率分布特征变化. 地理科学, 2005, 25(5): 561-566.]

[22] Liao Yaoming, Chen Deliang, Gao Ge et al. Impacts of climate changes on parameters of a weather generator for dailyprecipitation in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009, 64(7): 871-878. [廖要明, 陈德亮, 高歌等. 中国天气发生器降水模拟参数的气候变化特征. 地理学报, 2009, 64(7): 871-878.]

[23] Soltani A, Hoogenboom G. Minimum data requirements for parameter estimation of stochastic weather generators.Climate Research, 2003, 25: 109-119.

[24] Ren Fumin, Zhai Panmao. Study on changes of China's extreme temperatures during 1951-1990. ScientiaAtmospherica Sinica, 1998, 22(2): 217-227. [任福民, 翟盘茂. 1951-1990 年中国极端气温变化分析. 大气科学, 1998,22(2): 217-227.]

[25] Wang Cuihua, Li Xiong, Miao Qilong. Variety characteristics of daily minimum air temperature. Scientia GeographicaSinica, 2003, 23(4): 441-447. [王翠花, 李雄, 缪启龙. 中国近50 年来日最低气温变化特征研究. 地理科学, 2003, 23(4): 441-447.]

[26] Wang Xihong, Shi Guangyu. Effect of cloud and surface albedo on direct sulfate radiative forcing over east Asia. ActaMeteorologica Sinica, 2002, 60(6): 758-765. [王喜红, 石广玉. 东亚地区云和地表反照率对硫酸盐直接辐射强迫的影响. 气象学报, 2002, 60(6): 758-765.]

[27] Luo Yunfeng, Lü Daren, Zhou Xiuji et al. Analyses on the spatial distribution of aerosol optical depth over China inrecent 30 years. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2002, 26(6): 721-730. [罗云峰, 吕达仁, 周秀骥等. 30 年来我国大气气溶胶光学厚度平均分布特征分析. 大气科学, 2002, 26(6): 721-730.]

[28] Ren Guoyu, Guo Jun, Xu Mingzhi et al. Climate changes of China's mainland over the past half century. ActaMeteorologica Sinica, 2005, 63(6): 942-956. [任国玉, 郭军, 徐铭志等. 近50 年中国地面气候变化基本特征. 气象学报, 2005, 63(6): 942-956.]

[29] Zhang Y L, Qin B Q, Chen W M. Analysis of 40 year records of solar radiation data in Shanghai, Nanjing andHangzhou in eastern China. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 2004, 78: 217-227.

[30] Ma Jinyu, Luo Yong, Shen Yanbo et al. Regional long-term trend of ground solar radiation in China over the past 50years. Science China Earth Science, 2012, 42(10): 1597-1608. [马金玉, 罗勇, 申彦波等. 近50 年中国太阳总辐射长期变化趋势. 中国科学: 地球科学, 2012, 42(10): 1597-1608.]

[31] Wu Jindong, Wang Futang. Study on the creation of daily climatic variation scenarios with a stochastic weathergenerator and various interpolations. Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology, 2000, 11(2): 129-136. [吴金栋, 王馥棠. 利用随机天气模式及多种插值方法生成逐日气候变化情景的研究. 应用气象学报, 2000, 11(2): 129-136.]

[32] Deng Huiping, Wu Zhengfang. A study of impacts of climate changes in daily maximum, minimum temperature anddaily precipitation. Acta Geographica Sinica, 1996, 51(Suppl.): 50-57. [邓慧平, 吴正方. 气候变化对日极值气温和日雨量的影响. 地理学报, 1996, 51(增刊): 50-57.]

BCC/RCG-WG天气发生器非降水变量模拟参数气候变化特征

Impacts of climate changes on parameters of weather generator BCC/RCG-WG for daily non-precipitation variables simulation in China

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

被引次数

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	古恒宇, 沈体雁. 中国高学历人才的空间演化特征及驱动因素[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(2): 326-340.
[2]	朱晟君, 金文纨. 地方出口产品结构及制度环境与企业出口相关多样化[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(2): 398-414.
[3]	李钢, 薛淑艳, 马雪瑶, 周俊俊, 徐婷婷, 王皎贝. 中国失踪人口的时空格局演变与形成机制[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(2): 310-325.
[4]	葛全胜, 朱会义. 两千年来中国自然与人文地理环境变迁及启示[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(1): 3-14.
[5]	张兴航, 张百平, 王晶, 余付勤, 赵超, 姚永慧. 中国南北过渡带东段样带植被序列与气候分界问题[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(1): 30-43.
[6]	李哲, 丁永建, 陈艾姣, 张智华, 张世强. 1960—2019年西北地区气候变化中的Hiatus现象及特征[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(9): 1845-1859.
[7]	郭泽呈, 魏伟, 石培基, 周亮, 王旭峰, 李振亚, 庞素菲, 颉斌斌. 中国西北干旱区土地沙漠化敏感性时空格局[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(9): 1948-1965.
[8]	敖荣军, 常亮. 基于结构方程模型的中国县域人口老龄化影响机制[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(8): 1572-1584.
[9]	宋周莺, 祝巧玲. 中国边境地区的城镇化格局及其驱动力[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(8): 1603-1616.
[10]	马春玥, 买买提·沙吾提, 姚杰, 古丽努尔·依沙克. 1950—2015年中国棉花生产时空动态变化[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(8): 1699-1710.
[11]	郑景云, 张学珍, 刘洋, 郝志新. 过去千年中国不同区域干湿的多尺度变化特征评估[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(7): 1432-1450.
[12]	陶泽兴, 葛全胜, 王焕炯. 1963—2018年中国垂柳和榆树开花始期积温需求的时空变化[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(7): 1451-1464.
[13]	瞿诗进, 胡守庚, 李全峰. 中国城市建设用地转型阶段及其空间格局[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(7): 1539-1553.
[14]	魏素豪, 李晶, 李泽怡, 宗刚. 中国农业竞争力时空格局演化及其影响因素[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(6): 1287-1300.
[15]	王少剑, 高爽, 黄永源, 史晨怡. 基于超效率SBM模型的中国城市碳排放绩效时空演变格局及预测[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(6): 1316-1330.