地理学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 67 ›› Issue (12): 1634-1644.doi: 10.11821/xb201212005

• 国土开发与环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国能源安全评价及时空演进特征

刘立涛1, 沈镭1, 高天明1,2, 刘晓洁1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101;
    2. 中国科学院研究生院, 北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2012-04-24 修回日期:2012-10-09 出版日期:2012-12-20 发布日期:2013-02-07
  • 作者简介:刘立涛(1984-),女,湖南省岳阳市人,博士,助理研究员,主要从事能源经济与政策研究。E-mail:liult.08b@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目 (40771085);国家科技支撑计划项目 (2006BAC18B01-05);中国科学院地理科学与资源 研 究 所 知 识 创 新 项 目 (O66U0402SZ)

Evaluation and Spatial-temporal Evolution of Energy Security in China

LIU Litao1, SHEN Lei1, GAO Tianming1,2, LIU Xiaojie1   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2012-04-24 Revised:2012-10-09 Online:2012-12-20 Published:2013-02-07
  • Supported by:

    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40771085;The National Key Technology R&D Program, No.2006BAC18B01-05;The Pilot Project of Innovation Engineering Projects in the Third Period of IGSNRR, CAS, No.O66U0402SZ

摘要: 采用近20年能源经济数据,从能源供应稳定性与使用安全性两个方面构建中国能源安 全评价模型,借助因子分析、ArcGIS空间分析技术、情景分析方法,对中国能源安全时空演 进特征展开研究。结果表明: ① 近20年来,中国能源安全呈一小一大倒“U”型变化趋势, 且目前处于大倒“U”型下降阶段; ② 3种情景下,区域能源安全时空演进存在明显差异。情 景一:区域能源供应稳定形势显著改善,能源供应脆弱区在空间上向“S”型演进,能源供应 稳定区在空间上向“Y”型演进;情景二:能源使用安全形势迅速恶化,使用安全与供应稳定 性在空间上呈倒置状态;情景三:从2008年中国区域能源安全格局来看,中国区域能源安全 区 (次强与强区) 主要分布在黄河中游、西北、西南和东北地区,而能源安全脆弱区 (次弱和 弱区) 则主要分布在沿海地区。

关键词: 能源安全, 评价模型, 时空演进特征, 中国

Abstract: Based on the energy and economy data from 1990 to 2008, this paper develops a model to evaluate China's energy security from both supply and demand perspectives and analyze its spatial-temporal evolution by using factor analysis, ArcGIS spatial analysis techniques and scenario analysis. The results are as follows: 1) National energy security of China shows first a small and then a large inverted "U"-shaped trend during the past 20 years, and is currently at the downward stage of the pattern. 2) The three scenarios for spatial-temporal evolution of regional energy security demonstrate significant differences. Scenario 1 considers only the stability of regional energy supply (α = 1;β = 0). The consequent regional energy security has improved significantly. The evolution of vulnerable regions of energy supply shows an "S” -shaped pattern, and stable regions shows a "Y"-shaped trend. Scenario 2 considers only the security of energy use (α = 0;β = 1). The consequent regional energy security has deteriorated rapidly. The security of regional energy supply and use are roughly in an inverted state. Scenario 3 prioritizes stability of energy supply than security of energy use (α = 0.9;β = 0.1). The consequent spatial distribution pattern of energy security reveals that regional energy security zones of China (sub-strong and strong area) are mainly distributed in the Yellow River Basin, northwestern, southwestern and northeastern parts of China, while vulnerability zones (sub-weak and weak areas) are mainly located in coastal areas.

Key words: energy security, evaluation model, spatial and temporal evolution, China