Evaluation and Spatial-temporal Evolution of Energy Security in China
LIU Litao1, SHEN Lei1, GAO Tianming1,2, LIU Xiaojie1
1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Abstract：Based on the energy and economy data from 1990 to 2008, this paper develops a model to evaluate China's energy security from both supply and demand perspectives and analyze its spatial-temporal evolution by using factor analysis, ArcGIS spatial analysis techniques and scenario analysis. The results are as follows: 1) National energy security of China shows first a small and then a large inverted "U"-shaped trend during the past 20 years, and is currently at the downward stage of the pattern. 2) The three scenarios for spatial-temporal evolution of regional energy security demonstrate significant differences. Scenario 1 considers only the stability of regional energy supply (α = 1;β = 0). The consequent regional energy security has improved significantly. The evolution of vulnerable regions of energy supply shows an "S” -shaped pattern, and stable regions shows a "Y"-shaped trend. Scenario 2 considers only the security of energy use (α = 0;β = 1). The consequent regional energy security has deteriorated rapidly. The security of regional energy supply and use are roughly in an inverted state. Scenario 3 prioritizes stability of energy supply than security of energy use (α = 0.9;β = 0.1). The consequent spatial distribution pattern of energy security reveals that regional energy security zones of China (sub-strong and strong area) are mainly distributed in the Yellow River Basin, northwestern, southwestern and northeastern parts of China, while vulnerability zones (sub-weak and weak areas) are mainly located in coastal areas.
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2012, Vol. 67 
