黑龙江省冷害对水稻产量的影响

doi:10.11821/xb201209007

地理学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 67 ›› Issue (9): 1223-1232.doi: 10.11821/xb201209007

黑龙江省冷害对水稻产量的影响

刘晓菲¹, 张朝¹, 帅嘉冰¹, 王品¹, 史文娇², 陈一¹, 陶福禄²

1. 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室/减灾与应急管理研究院, 北京100875;
2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101

收稿日期:2012-06-06 修回日期:2012-07-03 出版日期:2012-09-20 发布日期:2012-11-09
通讯作者: 张朝,副教授,主要从事灾害风险分析及水文模拟研究。E-mail:zhangzhao@bnu.edu.cn E-mail:zhangzhao@bnu.edu.cn
作者简介:刘晓菲,硕士生,主要从事农业气象灾害风险研究。E-mail:liuxiaofei@mail.bnu.edu.cn
基金资助:
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金; 国家重大科学研究计划“全球变化与环境风险关系及其适应性范式研究”课题(2012CB955404); IRG-国际合作项目"典型脆弱区综合风险防范技术与范式对比合作研究(2012DFG20710); 地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室项目(2010-ZY-10; 2011-KF-06)

Effect of Chilling Injury on Rice Yield in Heilongjiang Province

LIU Xiaofei¹, ZHANG Zhao¹, SHUAI Jiabing¹, WANG Pin¹, SHI Wenjiao², CHEN Yi¹, TAO Fulu²

1. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management/State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Process and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

Received:2012-06-06 Revised:2012-07-03 Online:2012-09-20 Published:2012-11-09
Supported by:
Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities; The National Basic Research Program of China (2012CB955404); International Cooperation Project funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China, No.2012DFG20710; Project of State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, No.2010-ZY-10; No.2011-KF-06

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以黑龙江省为例, 比较了在大尺度范围内、利用传统的站点平均法以及基于格点水稻密度分布的泰森多边形面积权重法所得的两种省级水稻气象数据差异, 并分析了1960-2009 年内, 不同时间尺度上温度和降水的变化趋势特点。针对当地水稻低温冷害频发及其危害严重的实际情况, 对比研究了气象行业标准(QX/T 101-2009) 和国家标准中有关低温冷害的指标定义, 以及国际上较通用的有效负积温算法(GDD_n-) 这三种指标在反映黑龙江省水稻冷害事件上的能力, 结果表明:气象行业标准可以较好地反映延期型冷害对水稻的影响, 而GDD指标在反映障碍型冷害上均优于气象行业及国家标准。利用时间序列模型对包含延迟型和障碍型两种冷害影响的黑龙江省水稻产量进行拟合, 回归方程的解释能力可达92% (p < 0.05)。本研究定量得出了人为因素和气象因素对黑龙江省水稻生产的影响分别占87.2%和12.8%的结论, 并检测出近年来水稻抽穗开花期障碍型冷害的波动增加趋势, 为明确今后低温冷害的防御重点提供科学参考。

关键词: 水稻生产, 黑龙江省, 低温冷害

Abstract: This study is focused on indexes for the rice chilling injury in Heilongjiang Province during 1960-2009. Firstly, we compared a new derived climate data weighted by rice planting density with the traditional method, and found that the new one is more reasonable to assess the impact of climate change on crop yields. Considering the frequency and intensity of rice chilling in the province, secondly, chilling indexes defined by meteorological, national and international levels were assessed. The result showed that the meteorological standards were suitable for the delayed injury, while the international one, so-called sum of Growing Degree Day below threshold (GDD_n-), characterized best the chilling sterile injury for rice. The explanation ability of the rice yield time series model including both injury types as two independent variables reached approximately 92% (p < 0.05). Finally, we concluded that the contribution rates of human and weather factors to rice yields are about 87.2% and 12.8% respectively, and a slight increasing trend for sterile chilling injury was found during heading to flowing period in recent years, indicating a high chilling risk for rice planting in Heilongjiang Province in the future global warming.

Key words: rice production, Heilongjiang Province, chilling injury

刘晓菲, 张朝, 帅嘉冰, 王品, 史文娇, 陈一, 陶福禄. 黑龙江省冷害对水稻产量的影响[J]. 地理学报, 2012, 67(9): 1223-1232.

LIU Xiaofei, ZHANG Zhao, SHUAI Jiabing, WANG Pin, SHI Wenjiao, CHEN Yi, TAO Fulu. Effect of Chilling Injury on Rice Yield in Heilongjiang Province[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(9): 1223-1232.

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黑龙江省冷害对水稻产量的影响

Effect of Chilling Injury on Rice Yield in Heilongjiang Province

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