基于统计模型识别气候变化对农业产量贡献的研究进展

doi:10.11821/xb201209006

地理学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 67 ›› Issue (9): 1213-1222.doi: 10.11821/xb201209006

基于统计模型识别气候变化对农业产量贡献的研究进展

史文娇¹, 陶福禄¹, 张朝²

1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101;
2. 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家实验室, 北京100875

收稿日期:2012-04-20 修回日期:2012-07-11 出版日期:2012-09-20 发布日期:2012-09-20
作者简介:史文娇(1982-),女,辽宁葫芦岛人,助研,中国地理学会会员(S110008514M),研究方向为全球变化与区域农业。E-mail:shiwj@lreis.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41001057); 中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA05090308; XDA05090310); 地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室开放基金资助项目(2011-KF-06)

Identifying Contributions of Climate Change to Crop Yields Based on Statistical Models: A Review

SHI Wenjiao¹, TAO Fulu¹, ZHANG Zhao²

1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
2. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Received:2012-04-20 Revised:2012-07-11 Online:2012-09-20 Published:2012-09-20
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41001057; The Science and Technology Strategic Pilot of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.XDA05090308; No.XDA05090310; Project Supported by State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, No.2011-KF-06

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 从统计模型与作物机理模型的区别与联系出发, 介绍了识别气候变化对农业产量贡献的3 种主要统计模型, 即时间序列模型、截面模型和面板模型;综述了前人在站点和区域(全球、国家、省级、地区、县级) 尺度对这一问题的研究进展;总结了应用统计模型识别农业产量对气候变化响应敏感性的4 个主要问题, 包括时空尺度问题、产量的非气候趋势去除问题、气候要素间的自相关问题和忽略适应措施的问题;最后针对以上主要问题, 提出了改进建议及今后研究的发展趋势。

关键词: 气候变化, 产量, 影响, 适应, 统计模型

Abstract: Statistical models and crop models are two major tools for research of contributions of climate change to agricultural production. The researchers have paid much attention to the studies of effects of climate change on crop growth based on crop models. However, the topic based on statistical models has not been fully realized. This paper starts with the difference and relation between statistical models and crop models, and introduces three main statistical methods for identifying contributions of climate change to crop yields including time-series model, cross-section model and panel model. It reviews the topic on different scales, e.g. global scale, national scale, provincial scale, regional scale, county scale and site scale. There are four problems in identifying response sensitivity of crop yields to climate change, namely spatial and temporal scale, non-climatic trend removal, co-linearity existing in climate variables and the non-consideration of adaptation.

Key words: climate change, crop yield, influence, adaptation, statistical model

史文娇, 陶福禄, 张朝. 基于统计模型识别气候变化对农业产量贡献的研究进展[J]. 地理学报, 2012, 67(9): 1213-1222.

SHI Wenjiao, TAO Fulu, ZHANG Zhao. Identifying Contributions of Climate Change to Crop Yields Based on Statistical Models: A Review[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(9): 1213-1222.

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基于统计模型识别气候变化对农业产量贡献的研究进展

Identifying Contributions of Climate Change to Crop Yields Based on Statistical Models: A Review

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