地理学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 67 ›› Issue (7): 941-950.doi: 10.11821/xb201207007

• 环境变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

长江源区地表水资源对气候变化的响应及趋势预测

李林1,2, 戴升1,2, 申红艳1,2, 李红梅1,2, 肖建设2   

  1. 1. 青海省气候中心, 西宁810001;
    2. 青海省防灾减灾实验室, 西宁810001
  • 收稿日期:2012-03-14 修回日期:2012-04-19 出版日期:2012-07-20 发布日期:2012-10-11
  • 作者简介:李林(1971-), 男, 甘肃永登人, 研究员级高级工程师, 硕士, 主要从事气候变化及其对水资源、生态系统的影响评估与适应对策研究。E-mail: qhxnll@sohu.com
  • 基金资助:

    中国气象局气候变化专项项目(CCSF2010-05; CCSF2011-01)

Response of Water Resources to Climate Change and Its Future Trend in the Source Region of the Yangtze River

LI Lin1,2, DAI Sheng1,2, SHEN Hongyan1,2, LI Hongmei1,2, XIAO Jianshe2   

  1. 1. Qinghai Climate Centre, Xining 810001, China;
    2. Qinghai Key Laboratory of Disaster Preventing and Reducing, Xining 810001, China
  • Received:2012-03-14 Revised:2012-04-19 Online:2012-07-20 Published:2012-10-11
  • Supported by:

    Climate Change Science Foundation of China Meteorological Administration, No.CCSF2010-05; No.CCSF2011-01

摘要: 利用1961-2011 年长江源区流域水文、气象观测数据和国家气候中心2009 年11 月发布的中国地区气候变化预估数据集(2.0 版本), 通过分析长江源区流量的演变规律和揭示气候归因, 预测了未来流量可能的演变趋势。研究表明:近51 年来长江源区地表水资源总体呈增加趋势, 特别是2004 年后增加趋势显著, 并具有9a、22a 的准周期;青藏高原加热场增强, 高原季风进入强盛期, 流域降水量显著增加, 加之气候变化导致冰川融水增多, 是引起长江源区地表水资源增加的主要气候归因;根据全球气候模式预测, 在SRESA1B气候变化情景下, 未来20年长江源区地表水资源仍有可能以增加为主。

关键词: 气候变化, 地表水资源, 气温加热场, 季风, 气候模式, 长江源区

Abstract: By using the hydrological and meteorological observational data as well as impact data set (version 2.0) about climate change in China published by the National Climate Center in November 2009, the variations of flow and its climate causes are analyzed in this paper. The results indicate that the surface water resources show an increasing trend in the source region of Yangtze River in recent 51 years, especially after 2004, the trend was very obvious, and there were quasi-periods of 9 years and 22 years; Tibetan Plateau heating field enhanced, plateau monsoon went into a strong period, precipitation increased notably, and glacier melt water increased due to the climate change, all of which are the main climate causes of water resource increase in the source region. Based on the global climate model prediction, in the SRESA1B climate change scenarios, the water resources are likely to increase in this region in the next 20 years.

Key words: climate change, surface water resource, temperature heating field, monsoon, climate model, the source region of Yangtze River