地理学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 67 ›› Issue (6): 793-803.doi: 10.11821/xb201206007

• 农村发展与土地利用 • 上一篇    下一篇

1999-2007 年中国粮食安全的关键影响因素

宋小青1,2, 欧阳竹1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所生态系统网络观测与模拟重点实验室禹城综合试验站, 北京100101;
    2. 中国科学院研究生院, 北京100049
  • 收稿日期:2011-11-16 修回日期:2012-01-17 出版日期:2012-06-20 发布日期:2012-08-13
  • 通讯作者: 欧阳竹(1961-), 男, 研究员, 博士生导师, 主要从事农田生态系统管理研究。E-mail: ouyz@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KSCX2-EW-B-1);中国科学院知识创新工程重大项目(KSCX1-YW-09-06)

Key Influencing Factors of Food Security Guarantee in China during 1999-2007

SONG Xiaoqing1,2, OUYANG Zhu1   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2011-11-16 Revised:2012-01-17 Online:2012-06-20 Published:2012-08-13
  • Supported by:
    China and CAS Main Direction Program of Knowledge Innovation, No.KSCX2-EW-B-1; Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences; No.KSCX1-YW-09-06

摘要: 选取耕地保护“新政”时期的1999-2007 年为研究时段,以耕地面积与粮食产量变化的分歧原因—耕地生产力变化为切入点,通过比较分析、空间与计量分析探寻粮食安全的关键影响因素。结果表明:农民种粮积极性变化决定着耕地集约利用是影响粮食安全的关键;2003-2007 年农民种粮积极性的持续提高主要来自市场粮价的上涨;粮食直补仅在开始实施的年份激发了农民对种粮收益的预期。此外,本文从提高农民种粮积极性、优化粮食生产投入及改进耕地保护模式3方面,提出了耕地保护发展的政策建议。

关键词: 粮食安全, 耕地保护, 影响因素, 面板数据, 政策, 计量分析, 中国

Abstract: Exploring the key influencing factors of food security guarantee during the typical period is of significance for the development of cultivated land protection and agricultural policy. This paper aims at exploring the factors between 1999 and 2007 which was in the new period of cultivated land protection administration. Methods such as comparison, spatial and econometric analysis are used to analyze the change in cultivated land productivity which was the cause of the disparity between cultivated land area and grain output changes. Results show that farmers' willingness to grow grain which determines cultivated land use intensity is the key factor. The sustained improvement of the willingness in 2003-2007 was mainly resulted from the rise of grain market price. Meanwhile, direct subsidy merely inspired farmers' anticipation for the profit of grain growing at the beginning years of implementing this policy. In addition, suggestions on the development of cultivated land protection are proposed involving improvement of farmers' willingness to grow grain, optimization of inputs in grain growing and improvement of cultivated land protection models.

Key words: food security, cultivated land protection, influencing factor, panel data, policy, econometric analysis, China