地理学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 67 ›› Issue (3): 398-409.doi: 10.11821/xb201203011

• 水文 • 上一篇    下一篇

淮河流域极端径流的时空变化规律及统计模拟

杜鸿1, 夏军1,2, 曾思栋1, 佘敦先2,3, 张永勇2, 严子奇4   

  1. 1. 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室, 武汉 430072;
    2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室, 北京 100101;
    3. 中国科学院研究生院, 北京 100049;
    4. 中国水利水电科学研究院, 北京 100038
  • 收稿日期:2011-11-20 修回日期:2011-12-16 出版日期:2012-03-20 发布日期:2012-03-20
  • 通讯作者: 夏军(1954-), 男, 湖北孝感人, 研究员, 博士生导师, 中国地理学会会员(S110001624M), 主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail: xiaj@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点基础研究发展计划(973 计划) 项目(2010CB428406); 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金武汉大学博士研究生科研自主基金资助(20102060201000066)

Temporal and Spatial Variations and Statistical Models of Extreme Runoff in Huaihe River Basin

DU Hong1, XIA Jun1,2, ZENG Sidong1, SHE Dunxian2,3, ZHANG Yongyong2, YAN Ziqi4   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    3. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    4. China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
  • Received:2011-11-20 Revised:2011-12-16 Online:2012-03-20 Published:2012-03-20
  • Supported by:
    National Basic Research Program of China, No.2010CB428406; The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, No.20102060201000066

摘要: 以淮河流域蚌埠闸以上20 个水文站点1956-2010 年日径流量观测数据资料为基础,采用游程检验、趋势检验和Mann-Kendall 检验法分析年最大日径流量的变化规律。分别采用年最大值法(annual maximum,AM) 和超门限峰值法(peaks over threshold,POT) 抽取径流序列样本, 运用广义极值分布(generalized extreme value distribution,GEV) 和广义帕累托分布(generalized Pareto distribution,GPD) 两种极值统计模型对规范化样本进行拟合,分析淮河流域极端径流的时空变化规律。研究表明:1956-2010 年,淮河流域蚌埠闸以上的研究站点中,10 个站点的年最大日径流量有减少的趋势,另外10 个站点有不显著的增加趋势。极端径流事件大多发生在20 世纪60、70 年代,且以汛期居多。淮河流域的极端径流主要来自淮河干流、淮南山区和伏牛山区。使用Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) 法检验发现,GEV和GPD分布分别能较好的拟合AM和POT序列。采用百分位阈值法、平均超出量函数图法和超定量洪峰法三种方法选取阈值,对于淮河流域的极端径流事件模拟而言,百分位阈值法较好。

关键词: 淮河流域, 极端径流, 极值分布, 阈值选取

Abstract: Based on the daily runoff data from 20 hydrological stations during 1956-2010 above the Bengbu Sluice in the Huaihe River Basin, run test, trend test and Mann-Kendall test are used to analyze the variation trend of annual maximum runoff series. The annual maximum series (AM) and peaks over threshold series (POT) are selected to describe the extreme distributions of GEV and GPD. Temporal and spatial variations of extreme runoff in the Huaihe River Basin are analyzed. The results show that during the period 1956-2010 in the Huaihe River Basin, annual maximum runoff at 10 stations have a negative trend, while the other 10 stations have a positive trend which is not significant. The maximum runoff event almost occurred in the flood period during the 1960s and 1970s. The extreme runoff events in the Huaihe River Basin mainly occured in the mainstream of the Huaihe River, Huainan mountain areas, and Funiu mountain areas. Through Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, GEV and GPD distributions can be well fitted with AM and POT series respectively.

Key words: Huaihe River Basin, extreme runoff, extreme distribution, threshold selection