地理学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 67 ›› Issue (1): 71-82.doi: 10.11821/xb201201008
张永勇1, 张士锋1, 翟晓燕2, 夏军1,2
收稿日期:
2011-09-20
修回日期:
2011-10-19
出版日期:
2012-01-20
发布日期:
2012-01-20
基金资助:
ZHANG Yongyong1, ZHANG Shifeng1, ZHAI Xiaoyan2, XIA Jun1,2
Received:
2011-09-20
Revised:
2011-10-19
Online:
2012-01-20
Published:
2012-01-20
Supported by:
摘要: 利用水循环模型、统计检测、对比分析等手段对三江源区水循环过程进行了分析,模拟和检测了1958-2005 年黄河源区出口唐乃亥站、长江源区直门达站、澜沧江源区昌都站汛期、非汛期和年径流过程的变化趋势。在此基础上,检测CSIRO和NCAR两种气候模式A1B和B1 排放情景下未来2010-2039 年源区出口断面的径流演变趋势,对比分析了气候变化的影响。研究表明过去48 年三江源区出口唐乃亥站年径流和非汛期径流过程呈显著减少趋势,而直门达和昌都站径流过程变化趋势并不显著。这将导致对黄河中下游地区的水资源补给显著减少,加剧黄河流域水资源短缺。气候变化背景下,未来30 年黄河源区径流量与现状相比有所减少,尤其是在非汛期,将持续加剧黄河中下游流域水资源短缺的现象。长江源区径流量将呈增加趋势,而且远远高于现状流量,尤其是在汛期,长江中下游地区防洪形势严峻。而澜沧江源区未来30 年径流量均高于现状流量,但汛期和年径流变化并不显著,而非汛期径流变化存在不确定性,CSIRO模式B1 情景显著减小,而NCAR模式B1 情景显著增加。气候变化对长江源区径流影响最显著,黄河源区其次,而澜沧江源区最小。
张永勇, 张士锋, 翟晓燕, 夏军. 三江源区径流演变及其对气候变化的响应[J]. 地理学报, 2012, 67(1): 71-82.
ZHANG Yongyong, ZHANG Shifeng, ZHAI Xiaoyan, XIA Jun. Runoff Variation in the Three Rivers Source Region and Its Response to Climate Change[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(1): 71-82.
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