地理学报

地理学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 67 ›› Issue (1): 62-70.doi: 10.11821/xb201201007

• 气候变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化和人类活动对白洋淀上游水源区径流的影响

胡珊珊1,2, 郑红星1, 刘昌明1,3, 于静洁1, 王中根1   

  1. 1. 陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室, 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101;
    2. 中国科学院研究生院, 北京 100049;
    3. 北京师范大学水科学研究院, 北京 100875
  • 收稿日期:2011-07-29 修回日期:2011-10-18 出版日期:2012-01-20 发布日期:2012-02-28
  • 通讯作者: 郑红星, 男, 副研究员, 中国地理学会会员(S110001621M), 主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail: zhenghx@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(40830636; 40971023)

Assessing the Impacts of Climate Variability and Human Activities on Streamflow in the Water Source Area of Baiyangdian Lake

HU Shanshan1,2, ZHENG Hongxing1, LIU Changming1,3, YU Jingjie1, WANG Zhonggen1   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    3. College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
  • Received:2011-07-29 Revised:2011-10-18 Online:2012-01-20 Published:2012-02-28
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40830636; No.40971023

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摘要： 白洋淀是华北平原最大的湖泊湿地,对维持华北平原生态平衡具有极其重要的作用。近年来,白洋淀流域水源减少已经引起了严重的生态环境问题,本文以唐河上游流域为例,根据流域内1960-2008 年水文气象数据,采用气候弹性系数和水文模拟方法,研究了气候变化和人类活动对白洋淀上游水源区径流量的影响。结果表明：年径流下降趋势显著,下降速率为1.7 mm/a,且径流在1980 年前后发生了突变;气候变化对唐河上游流域径流减少的贡献率为38%~40%,人类活动对径流的减少起主导作用,为60%~62%。为维持白洋淀的生态功能,必须保证一定的最小生态需水量,开展湿地生态用水调度与监管。

关键词: 唐河, 气候变化, 人类活动, 弹性系数, 水文模型, 白洋淀流域

Abstract: As the largest wetland in the North China Plain, Baiyangdian Lake plays an important role in maintaining water balance and ecological health of NCP. In the past few decades, the decreasing streamflow in Baiyangdian Basin associated with climate variability and human activities has caused a series of water and eco-environmental problems. In this study, we quantified the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in the water source area of Baiyangdian Lake, based on analyses of hydrologic changes of upper Tanghe catchment from 1960 to 2008. Climate elasticity method and hydrological modeling method were used to distinguish the effects of climate variability and human activities. The results showed that the annual streamflow decreased significantly (P > 0.05) by 1.7 mm/a and an abrupt change was identified around the year 1980. The quantification results indicated that climate variations accounted for 38%-40% of decrease in streamflow, while human activities accounted for 60%-62%. Therefore, human activities played a dominant influence in the decline of the streamflow in the water source area of Baiyangdian Lake. To keep the ecosystem health of Baiyangdian Lake, we suggest that minimum eco-water demand and integrated watershed management should be guaranteed in the future.

Key words: climate variability, human activities, climate elasticity, hydrological model, Baiyangdian Lake, Tanghe River