地理学报 ›› 2011, Vol. 66 ›› Issue (11): 1479-1485.doi: 10.11821/xb201111004

• 气候变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国南方过去400 年的极端冷冬变化

郝志新1, 郑景云1, 葛全胜1, 丁玲玲1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101;
    2. 中国科学院研究生院, 北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2011-06-07 修回日期:2011-07-21 出版日期:2011-11-20 发布日期:2011-12-24
  • 通讯作者: 郑景云(1966-), 研究员, 中国地理学会会员(S110005556M), 主要从事气候变化研究。E-mail: zhengjy@igsnrr.ac.cn E-mail:zhengjy@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:郝志新(1975-), 副研究员, 从事气候变化研究。E-mail: haozx@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    中国科学院战略性先导科技专项项目(XDA05080100); 科技基础性工作专项项目(2011FY120300); 国家自然科学基金项目(41071029)

Variations of Extreme Cold Winter Events in Southern China in the Past 400 Years

HAO Zhixin1, ZHENG Jingyun1, GE Quansheng1, DING Lingling1,2   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2011-06-07 Revised:2011-07-21 Online:2011-11-20 Published:2011-12-24
  • Supported by:

    The "Strategic Priority Research Program" of the Chinese Academy ofSciences, No.XDA05080100; Basic Research Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology,No.2011FY120300; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41071029

摘要: 以南方地区及全国的冬季与1 月气温观测记录为基础,采用事件发生概率密度函数小于10%的标准确定1951 年以来的极端冷冬事件;根据历史文献中的寒冷事件及其灾害影响记载,采用古今极端冷冬事件影响程度对比的方法建立了1600-2010 年间的极端冷冬事件年表。分析表明:极端冷冬发生频率存在明显的阶段性变化,其中1650-1699 年、1800-1849 年及1850-1899 年是过去400 年极端冷冬发生最为频繁的时段,其发生次数达1950-1999 年的2 倍,1600-1649 年及1900-1949 年较20 世纪后半叶略多, 而1700-1749 年及1750-1799 年则与1950-1999 年相当。此外,极端冷冬事件具有连发或隔年再发特征。同时,20 世纪50 年代以来最严重冷冬事件的寒冷程度并没有超出历史时期曾经出现过的事件。

关键词: 中国南方, 过去400年, 极端冷冬, 变化特征

Abstract: The extreme cold winter events were defined as the ones with the occurrence probabilities lower than the tenth percentile of the probability density function, based on the observed temperature of winter and January in southern China since 1951. The impacts (including freezing of rivers/lakes, widespread snow/ice storms, and cold damages to subtropical/tropical crops) of these extreme cold winter events occurred since 1951, which were adopted to reconstruct the chronology of extreme cold winter events derived from Chinese documents in southern China during 1600-1950. The most frequent occurrences of extreme cold winter events were observed during 1650-1699, 1800-1849 and 1850-1899, with frequencies twice as many as that in 1950-1999. The frequencies of extreme cold winter events in 1600-1649 and 1900-1949 were a little higher than those in 1950-1999. In contrast, the frequencies of extreme cold winters during 1700-1749 and 1750-1799 were close to those in 1951-1999. Moreover, the occurrence of extreme cold winter events happened year by year or every other year in most of cases. Meanwhile, the intensities of some historical cold events exceeded those of the coldest winter events since 1951.

Key words: southern China, past 400 years, extreme cold winter event, variation