地理学报 ›› 2011, Vol. 66 ›› Issue (11): 1451-1465.doi: 10.11821/xb201111002

• 气候变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

青海三江源地区近50年来的气温变化

易湘生1,2, 尹衍雨3,4, 李国胜1, 彭景涛5   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101;
    2. 中国科学院研究生院, 北京 100049;
    3. 北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院, 北京 100875;
    4. 北京师范大学区域地理研究重点实验室, 北京 100875;
    5. 西南大学地理科学学院, 重庆 400715
  • 收稿日期:2011-05-24 修回日期:2011-07-21 出版日期:2011-11-20 发布日期:2011-12-24
  • 通讯作者: 李国胜, 研究员, E-mail: ligs@igsnrr.ac.cn E-mail:ligs@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:易湘生(1981-), 男, 博士研究生, 从事气候变化与草地退化方面研究。E-mail: yixiangsheng2004@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家科技支撑计划项目(2009BAC61B01)

Temperature Variation in Recent 50 Years in the Three-River Headwaters Region of Qinghai Province

YI Xiangsheng1,2, YIN Yanyu3,4, LI Guosheng1, PENG Jingtao5   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    3. School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
    4. Key Laboratory of Regional Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
    5. School of Geographical sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
  • Received:2011-05-24 Revised:2011-07-21 Online:2011-11-20 Published:2011-12-24
  • Supported by:

    The National Science and Technology Support Plan,No.2009BAC61B01

摘要: 利用青海三江源地区12 个气象站1961-2010 年月气温资料及滑动平均、线性倾向估计、样条函数插值、Mann-Kendal 检验等方法对气温变化的分析结果表明:(1) 青海三江源地区及3个源区年、四季平均气温出现多次冷暖波动过程,但在统计意义上均呈显著增温趋势,2001年以后增温明显。其中,春、夏、秋季和全年平均气温从20 世纪90 年代以后增温显著,而冬季在进入21 世纪后增温极为显著。除春季外,青海三江源地区及3 个源区年、四季气温标准值逐渐增加,并以冬季气温标准值增加最为显著;(2) 青海三江源地区年平均气温倾向率为0.36 oC 10a-1,澜沧江源区与黄河源区增温幅度相同(0.37 oC 10a-1),而长江源区增温幅度相对较小(0.34 oC 10a-1),整个青海三江源地区显著增温区域出现在玉树南部及囊谦北部,并且冬季和秋季增温幅度要大于春季和夏季;(3) 青海三江源地区、澜沧江源区和长江源区的年、夏、秋、冬季以及黄河源区夏、秋季平均气温均发生了突变。其中,年、夏季平均气温突变主要发生20 世纪90 年代中后期,秋季平均气温主要在90 年代前期,而冬季平均气温主要发生21 世纪初;(4) 全球气候变暖背景下,青藏高原不同地区海拔高度和下垫面的差异是导致青海三江源地区增温幅度较大的主要原因。

关键词: 气温变化, 区域差异, 突变分析, 三江源地区

Abstract: Based on the monthly average temperature data of 12 meteorological stations in the Three-River Headwaters Region of Qinghai Province from 1961 to 2010, the regional differences and abrupt changes of temperature variation were analyzed by the methods of moving average, linear trend analysis, spline interpolation, and Mann-Kendall test. Some important results were obtained in four aspects as follows. (1) The annual and seasonal average temperature in the Three-River Headwaters Region of Qinghai Province and its source regions was featured by several cold and warm fluctuations, but the average temperature had a significant rising trend at statistical significance level, especially since 2001. Spring, summer, autumn and annual average temperatures tended to be warm significantly since the 1990s and the winter average temperature exhibited a significant increasing trend since 2001. (2) The annual average temperature change tendency rate of the Three-River Headwaters Region of Qinghai Province was 0.36 oC 10a-1, while the annual average temperature change tendency rates of the Yellow River source region, the Lancangjiang River source region and the Yangtze River source region were 0.37 oC 10a-1, 0.37 oC 10a-1 and 0.34 oC 10a-1, respectively. The significant temperature increasing regions were observed in the south of Yushu County and the north of Nangqian County, and the temperature rising trends of winter and autumn were higher than those of spring and summer. (3) The annual, summer, autumn and winter average temperatures in the Three-River Headwaters Region, Lancangjiang River source region and Yangtze River source region as well as the summer and autumn average temperatures in the Yellow River source region had abrupt changes. The annual and summer average temperature abrupt changes were mainly observed in the late 1990s, while the autumn and winter average temperature abrupt changes mainly occurred in the early 1990s and early 21st century respectively. (4) In the background of global climate warming, altitude and underlying surface in different parts of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau were the reasons for high temperature increasing rate in the Three-River Headwaters Region of Qinghai Province.

Key words: temperature variation, regional differences, abrupt changes analysis, Three-River Headwaters Region