地理学报 ›› 2011, Vol. 66 ›› Issue (11): 1443-1450.doi: 10.11821/xb201111001
• 气候变化 • 下一篇
何奇瑾1,2, 周广胜2,3
收稿日期:
2011-05-30
修回日期:
2011-07-18
出版日期:
2011-11-20
发布日期:
2011-11-20
通讯作者:
周广胜(1965-), 男, 研究员, 博士生导师, 主要从事生物气象及相关研究工作。E-mail: gszhou@cams.cma.gov.cn
作者简介:
何奇瑾(1981-), 女, 博士生, 主要从事应用气象及相关研究工作。E-mail: mable1003@163.com
基金资助:
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2010CB951303); 公益性行业( 农业) 科研专项经费(200903003)
HE Qijin1,2, ZHOU Guangsheng2,3
Received:
2011-05-30
Revised:
2011-07-18
Online:
2011-11-20
Published:
2011-11-20
Supported by:
National Basic Research Program of China, No.2010CB951303; National Public Benefit(Agricultural) Research Foundation of China, No.200903003
摘要: 根据我国188 个夏玉米农业气象观测站资料与1971-2000 年10 km×10 km空间分辨率的气候资料,结合国家层次和年尺度筛选出的影响我国玉米种植分布的潜在气候指标,利用最大熵(MaxEnt) 模型和ArcGIS空间分析技术,构建了我国夏玉米潜在种植分布与气候因子关系模型,研究了影响我国夏玉米潜在种植分布的主导气候因子及其气候适宜性。结果表明,影响我国夏玉米潜在种植分布的主导气候因子有:无霜期、年平均温度、≥ 10 oC积温持续天数、≥ 0 oC积温、≥ 10 oC积温、最冷月平均温度、最热月平均温度、年降水;采用夏玉米存在概率这一综合反映各主导因子作用的指标,将我国夏玉米潜在种植分布区划分为4 个等级:最适宜区、适宜区、次适宜区和不适宜区,并阐述了各气候适宜区的气候特征。研究结果可为夏玉米种植的科学布局及制定应对气候变化政策提供参考。
何奇瑾, 周广胜. 我国夏玉米潜在种植分布区的气候适宜性研究[J]. 地理学报, 2011, 66(11): 1443-1450.
HE Qijin, ZHOU Guangsheng. Climatic Suitability of Potential Summer Maize Planting Zones in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(11): 1443-1450.
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