地理学报 ›› 2011, Vol. 66 ›› Issue (5): 579-588.doi: 10.11821/xb201105001

• 气候变化 •    下一篇

中国地表潜在蒸散发敏感性的时空变化特征分析

刘昌明1,2, 张丹1,3   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101;
    2. 北京师范大学水科学研究院, 北京 100875;
    3. 中国科学院研究生院, 北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2011-03-16 修回日期:2011-04-06 出版日期:2011-05-20 发布日期:2011-05-20
  • 通讯作者: 张丹, 女, 博士研究生, 从事水文气象方面的研究。E-mail: nuistgiszd@163.com
  • 作者简介:刘昌明, 男, 湖南汨罗人, 中国科学院院士, 中国地理学会名誉理事长(S110001654H), 主要从事水文地理方面的研究。E-mail: liucm@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(40971023); 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2010CB428406)

Temporal and Spatial Change Analysis of the Sensitivity of Potential Evapotranspiration to Meteorological Influencing Factors in China

LIU Changming1,2, ZHANG Dan1,3   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. College of Resources and Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
    3. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2011-03-16 Revised:2011-04-06 Online:2011-05-20 Published:2011-05-20
  • Supported by:

    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40971023; National Basic Research Program of China, No.2010CB428406

摘要: 潜在蒸散发是农田灌溉管理、作物需水量估算、稀缺资料地区水量平衡等研究中的重要参量,分析其对气象因子的敏感性有助于农业水资源优化配置和气候变化对水资源的影响研究。根据中国1960-2007 年的653 个气象台站的常规气象观测资料,采用优化太阳辐射计算的Penman-Monteith 潜在蒸散发计算方法,分析了中国10 大流域片区的潜在蒸散发对最高气温、最低气温、风速、太阳辐射、水汽压的敏感性及其区域分异。研究结果表明:(1) 采用优化后的Penman-Monteith 公式,计算的潜在蒸散发与蒸发皿蒸发量的复相关系数从0.61 提高到了0.75;计算得出的潜在蒸散发在8 个流域片区呈下降趋势,从流域尺度上揭示了“蒸发悖论”在中国的普遍存在。(2) 空间上,海河流域片区、黄河流域片区、淮河流域片区、长江流域片区、珠江流域片区、东南诸河的潜在蒸散发对最高气温最为敏感,松花江流域片区、辽河流域片区和西北诸河对水汽压最为敏感,西南诸河则对太阳辐射最为敏感。全国范围内,潜在蒸散发对气象因子的敏感性为:水汽压>最高气温>太阳辐射>风速>最低气温;且各敏感系数与海拔有一定的线性相关性。(3) 时间尺度上,潜在蒸散发对最高气温和太阳辐射最为敏感的月份是7 月,而对最低气温、风速和水汽压最为敏感的月份是1 月。1960-2007 年之间,潜在蒸散发对最高气温的敏感性呈下降趋势,而对最低气温、风速、太阳辐射和水汽压的敏感性呈上升趋势。

关键词: Penman-Monteith潜在蒸散发, 气象因子, 敏感性, 中国, 流域片区

Abstract: Potential evapotranspiration (E0), as an estimate of the evaporative demand of the atmosphere, has been widely discussed in researches on irrigation management, crop water demand and predictions in ungauged basins (PUBs). Analysis of the sensitivity of E0 to meteorological factors is the basic research on the impact of climate change on water resources, and also is important to the optimal allocation of agricultural water resources. In this study, the calculation method of global radiation in Penman-Monteith formula was improved by optimazation, and the sensitivities of Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiration to the daily maximum temperature (STmax), daily minimum temperature (STmin), wind speed (SU2), global radiation (SRs) and vapor pressure (SVP) were calculated and analyzed based on the long-term meteorological data at 653 meteorological stations in China during the period 1961-2000. The results are obtained as follows. (1) The multiple correlation coefficient between E0 and pan evaporation increased from 0.61 to 0.75 using the improved Penman-Monteith formula. Trend analysis shows that E0 had the decreasing trends in eight basins of China, which indicates that "pan evaporation paradox" common existed in China from 1960 to 2007. (2) Spatially, Tmax was the most sensitive variable in the Haihe River, Yellow River, Huaihe River, Yangtze River, Pearl River and river basins in southeastern China, and VP was the most sensitive variable in the Songhua River Basin, Liaohe River Basin and river basins in Northwest China, while Rs was the most sensitive variable in river basins of Southwest China. For the national average, the most sensitive variable was VP, followed by Tmax, Rs, U2 and Tmin. In addition, the changes in sensitivity coefficients had certain correlation with elevation. (3) Temporally, the maximum values of STmax and SRs occurred in July, while the maximum values of STmin, SVP and SU2 occurred in January. Moreover, trend analysis indicates that STmax had decreasing trends, while STmin, SU2, SRs and SVP had increasing trends.

Key words: river basin area, Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiration, meteorological factors, sensitivity, China