地理学报 ›› 2011, Vol. 66 ›› Issue (3): 396-406.doi: 10.11821/xb201103012

• 水文 • 上一篇    下一篇

大尺度水循环模拟系统不确定性研究进展

宋晓猛1, 占车生2, 孔凡哲1, 夏军2   

  1. 1. 中国矿业大学资源与地球科学学院,江苏徐州221008;
    2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京100101
  • 收稿日期:2010-10-18 修回日期:2010-12-07 出版日期:2011-03-20 发布日期:2011-05-15
  • 通讯作者: 占车生(1975-), 男, 湖北黄冈人, 博士, 主要从事遥感水文学和大尺度水文模型模拟研究。E-mail: zhancs2006@gmail.com E-mail:zhancs2006@gmail.com
  • 作者简介:宋晓猛(1987-), 男, 江苏徐州人, 硕士生, 主要从事流域水文模拟与水文模型不确定性研究。E-mail: wenqingsxm@126.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家重点基础研究发展计划(973 计划) 项目(2010CB428403); 国家水体污染控制与治理重大专项-淮河流域水体污染治理技术研究与集成示范项目(2009ZX07210-006)

A Review on Uncertainty Analysis of Large-scale Hydrological Cycle Modeling System

SONG Xiaomeng1, ZHAN Chesheng2, KONG Fanzhe1, XIA Jun2   

  1. 1. School of Resource and Geoscience, China University of Mining & Technology, Xuzhou 221008, Jiangsu, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2010-10-18 Revised:2010-12-07 Online:2011-03-20 Published:2011-05-15
  • Supported by:

    National Key Basic Research Program of China (973 Program), No.2010CB428403; National Grand Science and Technology Special Project of Water Pollution Control and Improvement, No.2009ZX07210-006

摘要: 水循环过程受众多自然因素和人为因素影响,决定了水循环系统的变化性和复杂性。水循环系统模型作为研究流域水文循环过程及演变规律的重要工具,必然也存在较大的不确定性,特别是对于大尺度陆—气耦合下的水循环模拟系统,其不确定性来源包括输入和参数不确定性、结构不确定性、方法不确定性以及初始和边界条件不确定性。本文在分析不确定性量化方法和传统水文模型不确定性研究基础上,重点评述当前大尺度水循环系统模拟的不确定性研究进展和存在的瓶颈问题,并介绍一种针对大型复杂动力系统的不确定性量化解决方案和工具系统—PSUADE,基于此讨论PSUADE在大尺度水循环模拟系统不确定性量化过程中的优势。

关键词: 不确定性分析, 水循环模拟, 陆—气耦合, 大尺度, PSUADE

Abstract: The uncertainties in hydrological modelling come from four major sources: uncertainties in input data and parameters, uncertainties in model structure, uncertainties in analysis method and the initial and boundary conditions. Much attention has been paid to the uncertainty issues in hydrological modelling due to their great effects on prediction, and also many methods are applied to uncertainty quantification in the hydrological model. In this paper, we reviewed the recent advances on the uncertainty analysis approaches in the large-scale complex hydrological model, such as, large-scale hydrological system coupled with the land-atmosphere model. And then the PSUADE and its uncertainty quantification method were introduced, which will be a useful tool and platform for integration research in uncertainty analysis of large complex hydrological models.

Key words: uncertainty analysis, hydrological cycle modeling, land-atmosphere coupling, large scale, PSUADE