地理学报 ›› 2011, Vol. 66 ›› Issue (2): 178-188.doi: 10.11821/xb201102004

• 城市研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

区域尺度城市增长时空动态模型及其应用

匡文慧1, 刘纪远1, 邵全琴1, 何剑锋1, 孙朝阳1, 田汉勤2, 班艺舫3   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101;
    2. 美国奥本大学,奥本36849;

    3. 瑞典皇家理工学院,斯德哥尔摩S-10044
  • 收稿日期:2010-01-07 修回日期:2010-07-18 出版日期:2011-02-20 发布日期:2011-02-20
  • 通讯作者: 刘纪远(1947-), 男, 研究员, 博士生导师。中国自然资源学会理事长, 主要从事资源环境遥感与土地利用/覆 盖变化及其宏观生态效应研究。E-mail: liujy@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:匡文慧(1978-), 男, 助研, 博士后。主要从事土地利用/覆盖变化和城市遥感应用研究。 E-mail: kuangwh1978@sina.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学青年基金项目(40901224); 国家“973”计划项目(2010CB950900); 国家“863”计划项目 (2009AA122002-3); 遥感科学国家重点实验室开放基金项目(2009KFJJ005); 国家资源与环境信息系统重点 实验室开放基金项目(A0725); 瑞典国际合作项目(2006-24724-44416-13)

Dynamic Urban Growth Model at Regional Scale and Its Application

KUANG Wenhui1, LIU Jiyuan1, SHAO Quanqin1, HE Jianfeng1, SUN Chaoyang1, TIAN Hanqin2, BAN Yifang3   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;

    2. Aurban University, Aurban 36849, USA;

    3. Swedish Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm S-10044, Sweden
  • Received:2010-01-07 Revised:2010-07-18 Online:2011-02-20 Published:2011-02-20
  • Supported by:

    The Young Scientist Fund of Nataional Natural Science Fundation of China, No.40901224; National High Technology Research and Development Program, No.2009AA122002-3; National Key Technology R&D Program, No.2006BAC08B00; Opening Foundation of State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, No.2009KFJJ005; Opening Foundation of State Key Lab of Resources and Environmental Information System, No.A0725; Swedish Research Links, No.2006-24724-44416-13

摘要: 区域尺度城市增长动态模拟(Reg-UGM) 是城市化影响下的土地利用/覆盖变化以及全球 环境变化研究的重要手段之一。针对单个城市增长未来情景模拟难以在区域尺度刻画与解释 城市化影响下的土地利用/覆盖变化以及与全球环境变化交互过程与作用机理主要问题,本研 究集成人工神经网络模型(ANN) 与元胞自动机模型(CA) 构建适合不同情景的区域尺度城市 增长动态模型,通过1979 年以来高分辨率遥感信息探测获取的4 个时段京津唐都市圈城市增 长时空特征分析提取先验知识规则,模拟京津唐都市圈在基准模式、经济模式、政策模式与 结构调整模式未来不同情景模式下城市增长过程。研究表明,Reg-UGM在模拟区域尺度受国 家宏观政策等影响城市非线性增长过程具有较好的可靠性,为进一步研究城市化影响下的宏 观生态效应提供前提保障。模拟结果显示京津唐都市圈在不同情景模式下城市增长呈现较大 的时空格局差异,未来城市增长结构调整模式更符合区域城市化的实际情况,未来区域城市 增长将由特大城市向中小城市转移,滨海沿线城镇发展带将经历更快的城市增长过程。

关键词: 城市增长, 情景模拟, 京津唐都市圈, GIS

Abstract: Dynamic urban expansion simulation at regional scale is one of the important research methodologies in Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) and global environmental change influenced by urbanization. However, previous studies indicate that the single urban expansion simulation for future scenarios at local scale cannot meet the requirements for characterizing and interpreting the interactive mechanisms of regional urbanization and global environmental change. This study constructed a regional Dynamic Urban Expansion Model(Reg-DUEM) suitable for different scenarios by integrating the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Cellular Automaton (CA) model. Firstly we analyzed the temporal and spatial characteristics of urban expansion and acquired a prior knowledge rules using land use/cover change datasets of Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan metropolitan area. The future urban expansion under different scenarios is then simulated based on a baseline model, economic models, policy models and the structural adjustment model. The results indicate that Reg-DUEM has good reliability for a non-linear expansion simulation at regional scale influenced by macro-policies. The simulating results show that future urban expansion patterns from different scenarios of the metropolitan area have the tremendous spatio-temporal differences. Future urban expansion will shift quickly from Beijing metropolis to the periphery of Tianjin and Tangshan city along coastal belt.

Key words: Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan Area, urban expansion simulation, GIS, remote sensing