地理学报 ›› 2011, Vol. 66 ›› Issue (1): 68-76.doi: 10.11821/xb201101007
许端阳1,4, 李春蕾2, 庄大方3, 潘剑君4
收稿日期:
2010-07-20
修回日期:
2010-09-26
出版日期:
2011-01-25
发布日期:
2011-03-11
作者简介:
许端阳(1983-), 男, 博士, 助理研究员, 主要从事气候变化与沙漠化、科技政策与管理等方面的研究。E-mail: xudy@istic.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(40901054)
XU Duanyang1,4, LI Chunlei2, ZHUANG Dafang3, PAN Jianjun4
Received:
2010-07-20
Revised:
2010-09-26
Online:
2011-01-25
Published:
2011-03-11
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40901054
摘要: 气候变化和人类活动是导致沙漠化的两大驱动力,系统评价两者在沙漠化过程中的相对作用对于深入理解沙漠化过程的驱动力作用机理以及开展防沙治沙工作具有重要的意义。本研究从定性—半定量和定量研究两个方面对目前气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用评价方法进行了系统的梳理,认为目前的评价方法存在着主观性强、可重复操作性差、多基于行政单元而缺乏在连续的空间域上来评价气候变化和人类活动相对作用等不足。基于对以往研究的总结和笔者近阶段的相关研究成果,笔者认为开展气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用的评价工作关键是突破两类驱动力相对作用在连续的空间域上进行评价和表达这一瓶颈的制约,并提出了以定量研究为核心,以NPP为衡量气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用的公共指标,通过拆分“驱动力作用—沙漠化土地动态响应”这一生态过程为若干可能情景来构建气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用评价方法的思路。此外,在进行定量评价时,还需要考虑结果验证以及评价尺度这两个重点问题对评价结果和结论的影响
许端阳, 李春蕾, 庄大方, 潘剑君. 气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用评价综述[J]. 地理学报, 2011, 66(1): 68-76.
XU Duanyang, LI Chunlei, ZHUANG Dafang, PAN Jianjun. Assessment of the Relative Role of Climate Change and Human Activities in Desertification:A Review[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(1): 68-76.
[1] Wang Tao, Zhu Zhenda. Study on sandy desertification in China: 1. Definition of sandy desertification and its connotation.Journal of Desert Research, 2003, 23(3): 209-214. [王涛, 朱震达. 我国沙漠化研究的若干问题: 1. 沙漠化的概念及其内涵. 中国沙漠, 2003, 23(3): 209-214.][2] State Forestry Administration. The Third Communique of Desertification and Sandy Desertification in China, 2007. http://www.gov.cn/ztzl/fszs/content_650487.htm. [国家林业局. 第三次中国荒漠化和沙漠化公报, 2007. http://www.gov.cn/ztzl/fszs/content_650487.htm.][3] Wang Tao. Study on sandy desertification in China: 4. Strategy and approach for combating sandy desertification. Journalof Desert Research, 2004, 24(2): 115-123. [王涛. 我国沙漠化研究的若干问题: 4. 沙漠化的防治战略与途径. 中国沙漠,2004, 24(2): 115-123.][4] Wang Tao. Study on sandy desertification in China: 2. Contents of desertification. Journal of Desert Research, 2003, 23(5):477-482. [王涛. 我国沙漠化研究的若干问题: 2. 沙漠化的研究内容. 中国沙漠, 2003, 23(5): 477-482.][5] Wang Tao, Wu Wei, Zhao Halin et al. Analyses on driving factors to sandy desertification process in Horqin region, China.Journal of Desert Research, 2004, 24(5): 519-528. [王涛, 吴薇, 赵哈林等. 科尔沁地区现代沙漠化过程的驱动因素分析. 中国沙漠, 2004, 24(5): 519-528.][6] Gao Xiaohong, Wang Yimou, Wang Jianhua et al. Analysis on desertification dynamics based on remote sensing and GIS inzone along the Great Wall in northern Shaanxi Province. Journal of Desert Research, 2005, 25(1): 63-67. [高小红, 王一谋,王建华等. 陕北长城沿线地区1986-2000 年沙漠化动态变化分析. 中国沙漠, 2005, 25(1): 63-67.][7] Ma Shaoxiu, Wang Tao, Xue Xian et al. Dynamic changes of desertification land in the northern Xilinguole grassland.Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2007, 21(3): 77-82. [马绍休, 王涛, 薛娴等. 锡林郭勒盟北五旗近5 年沙漠化过程及成因分析. 干旱区资源与环境, 2007, 21(3): 77-82.][8] Liu Shulin, Wang Tao. Primary study on sandy desertification in Otindag sandy land and its surrounding regions. Journal of741期许端阳等:气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用评价综述Soil and Water Conservation, 2004, 18(5): 99-103. [刘树林, 王涛. 浑善达克沙地地区土地沙漠化初步研究. 水土保持学报, 2004, 18(5): 99-103.][9] Zheng Y R, Xie Z X, Robert C et al. Did climate drive ecosystem change and induce desertification in Otindag sandy land,China over the past 40 years? Journal of Arid Environments, 2006, 64: 523-541.[10] Wang X M, Chen H F, Dong Z B. The relative role of climatic and human factors in desertification in semiarid China.Global Environment Change, 2006, 16: 48-57.[11] Wang X M, Zhang C X, Hasi E et al. Has the Three Norths Forest Shelterbelt Program solved the desertification and duststorm problems in arid and semiarid China? Journal of Arid Environments, 2010, 74: 13-22.[12] Xu Xiaoling, Yan Junping. Research on quantitative relations between human factors and desertification in northernShaanxi sandy area. Journal of Arid Land Research and Environment, 2005, 19(5): 38-41. [徐小玲, 延军平. 陕北沙区人为因素与沙漠化的定量关系研究. 干旱区资源与环境, 2005, 19(5): 38-41.][13] Sun Danfeng. Analysis of socio-economic driving forces on land desertification at Minqin County in Gansu Province in1988-1997. Transactions of the CSAE, 2005, (suppl.1): 131-135. [孙丹峰. 民勤1988-1997 年间土地荒漠化社会经济驱动力分析. 农业工程学报, 2005, (增刊1): 131-135.][14] Zhang Yushu, Wang Lixin, Zhang Hongqi et al. Influence of environmental factor changes on desertification process inShule River. Resources Science, 2003, 25(6): 60-65. [章予舒, 王立新, 张红旗等. 甘肃疏勒河流域环境因子变异对荒漠化态势的影响. 资源科学, 2003, 25(6): 60-65.][15] Dong Yuxiang. Principal components analysis of influential factors of desertification. Arid Zone Research, 1989, 6(4):34-41. [董玉祥. 土地沙漠化影响因子的定量分析. 干旱区研究, 1989, 6(4): 34-41.][16] Zhang Dengshan. Quantitative analysis of influential factors on land desertification in Qinghai Gonghe Basin. Journal ofDesert Research, 2000, 20(1): 59-62. [张登山. 青海共和盆地土地沙漠化影响因子的定量分析. 中国沙漠, 2000, 20(1):59-62.][17] Ma Y H, Fan S Y, Zhou L H et al. The temporal change of driving factors during the course of land desertification in aridregion of North China: The case of Minqin County. Environment Geology, 2007, 51: 999-1008.[18] Li S, Zheng Y, Luo P et al. Desertification in western Hainan Island, China (1959-2003). Land Degradation andDevelopment, 2007, 18(5): 473-485.[19] Li Zhenshan, He Limin, Wang Tao. A method for determining the contribution of natural factors on sandy pasturedesertification. Journal of Desert Research, 2006, 26(5): 687-692. [李振山, 贺丽敏, 王涛. 现代草地沙漠化中自然因素贡献率的确定方法. 中国沙漠, 2006, 26(5): 687-692.][20] Evans J, Geerken R. Discriminating between climate and human-induced dryland degradation. Journal of AridEnvironments, 2004, 57: 535-554.[21] Wessels K J, Prince S D, Malherbe J et al. Can human-induced land degradation be distinguished from the effects ofrainfall variability? A case study in South Africa. Journal of Arid Environments, 2007, 68: 271-297.[22] Geerken R, Ilaiwi M. Assessment of rangeland degradation and development of a strategy for rehabilitation. RemoteSensing of Environment, 2004, 90: 490-504.[23] Herrmann S M, Anyamba A, Tucker C J. Recent trends in vegetation dynamics in the African Sahel and their relationshipto climate. Global Environment Change, 2005, 15: 394-404.[24] Archer Emma R M. Beyond the "climate versus grazing" impasse: using remote sensing to investigate the effect of grazingsystem choice on vegetation cover in the eastern Karoo. Journal of Arid Environments, 2004, 57: 381-408.[25] Wessels K J, Prince S D, Reshef I. Mapping land degradation by comparison of vegetation production to spatially derivedestimates of potential production. Journal of Arid Environments, 2008, 72: 1940-1949.[26] Zhang Chunlai, Dong Guangrong, Zou Xueyong et al. Contributing ratios of several factors to the steppe desertification inGuinan, Qinghai Province. Journal of Desert Research, 2005, 25(4): 511-518. [张春来, 董光荣, 邹学勇等. 青海贵南草原沙漠化影响因子贡献率的确定. 中国沙漠, 2005, 25(4): 511-518.][27] Rojstaczer S, Sterling S M, Moore N J. Human appropriation of photosynthesis products. Science, 2001, 294: 2549-2552.[28] Haberl H, Erausmann F, Erb K H et al. Human appropriation of net primary production. Science, 2002, 296: 1968-1969.[29] Haberl H, Erb K H, Krausmann F et al. Quantifying and mapping the human appropriation of net primary production inearth's terrestrial ecosystems. PNAS, 2007, 104: 12942-12947.[30] O'Neill D W, Tyedmers P H, Beazley K F. Human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) in Nova Scotia,Canada. Regional Environment Change, 2007, 7: 1-14.[31] Zika M, Erb K. Net primary production losses due to human-induced desertification. Second International Conference onEarth System Modelling (ICESM), 2007, 1.[32] Prince S D. Spatial and temporal scales for detection of desertification//Reynolds J F, Stafford Smith D M. GlobalDesertification: Do Humans Cause Deserts? Berlin: Dahlem University Press, 2002: 23-40.[33] Xu D Y, Kang X W, Liu Z L et al. Assessing the relative role of climate change and human activities in sandydesertification of Ordos region, China. Science in China: Series D, 2009, 52: 855-868.[34] Dong Guangrong, Jin Heling, Chen Huizhong et al. Geneses of desertification in semiarid and subhumid regions of northChina. Quaternary Sciences, 1998, (2): 136-143. [董光荣, 靳鹤龄, 陈惠忠等. 中国北方半干旱和半湿润地区沙漠化的成因. 第四纪研究, 1998, (2): 136-143.][35] Xu D Y, Kang X W, Zhuang D F et al. Multi-scale quantitative assessment of the relative roles of climate change andhuman activities in desertification: A case study of the Ordos Plateau, China. Journal of Arid Environments, 2010, 74:498-507. |
[1] | 高江波, 焦珂伟, 吴绍洪. 1982-2013年中国植被NDVI空间异质性的气候影响分析[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(3): 534-543. |
[2] | 唐见,曹慧群,陈进. 生态保护工程和气候变化对长江源区植被变化的影响量化[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(1): 76-86. |
[3] | 李依婵,李育,朱耿睿. 一种新的气候变化敏感区的定义方法与预估[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(7): 1283-1295. |
[4] | 张扬,白红英,苏凯,黄晓月,孟清,郭少壮. 1960-2013年秦岭陕西段南北坡极端气温变化空间差异[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(7): 1296-1308. |
[5] | 邓海军,陈亚宁. 中亚天山山区冰雪变化及其对区域水资源的影响[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(7): 1309-1323. |
[6] | 秦雅,刘玉洁,葛全胜. 气候变化背景下1981-2010年中国玉米物候变化时空分异[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(5): 906-916. |
[7] | 邓晨晖,白红英,高山,黄晓月,孟清,赵婷,张扬,苏凯,郭少壮. 1964-2015年气候因子对秦岭地区植物物候的综合影响效应[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(5): 917-931. |
[8] | 黄耿志,冷疏影. 国家自然科学基金推动下的中国人文地理学发展[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(3): 578-594. |
[9] | 潘威, 郑景云, 满志敏. 1766-2000年黄河上中游汛期径流量波动特征及其与PDO关系[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(11): 2053-2063. |
[10] | 张学珍,李侠祥,徐新创,张丽娟. 基于模式优选的21世纪中国气候变化情景集合预估[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(9): 1555-1568. |
[11] | 陈莎,刘倩,贾玉连,陈鑫鑫,王传胜,万智巍,洪祎君,冷雪,王昕梅,曹向明,彭学敏,王野乔. 气候环境驱动下的中国北方早期社会历史时空演进及其机制[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(9): 1580-1593. |
[12] | 邢武成,李忠勤,张慧,张明军,梁鹏斌,牟建新. 1959年来中国天山冰川资源时空变化[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(9): 1594-1605. |
[13] | 初征,郭建平,赵俊芳. 东北地区未来气候变化对农业气候资源的影响[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(7): 1248-1260. |
[14] | 史文娇,刘奕婷,石晓丽. 气候变化对北方农牧交错带界线变迁影响的定量探测方法研究[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(3): 407-419. |
[15] | 王鹏涛,张立伟,李英杰,焦磊,王浩,延军平,吕一河,傅伯杰. 汉江上游生态系统服务权衡与协同关系时空特征[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(11): 2064-2078. |
|