地理学报 ›› 2011, Vol. 66 ›› Issue (1): 68-76.doi: 10.11821/xb201101007

• 气候变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用评价综述

许端阳1,4, 李春蕾2, 庄大方3, 潘剑君4   

  1. 1. 中国科学技术信息研究所, 北京100038;
    2. 新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院, 乌鲁木齐830054;
    3. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101;
    4. 南京农业大学资源与环境科学学院, 南京210095
  • 收稿日期:2010-07-20 修回日期:2010-09-26 出版日期:2011-01-25 发布日期:2011-03-11
  • 作者简介:许端阳(1983-), 男, 博士, 助理研究员, 主要从事气候变化与沙漠化、科技政策与管理等方面的研究。E-mail: xudy@istic.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(40901054)

Assessment of the Relative Role of Climate Change and Human Activities in Desertification:A Review

XU Duanyang1,4, LI Chunlei2, ZHUANG Dafang3, PAN Jianjun4   

  1. 1. Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China, Beijing 100038, China;
    2. College of Geography Science and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi 830054, China;
    3. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    4. College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China
  • Received:2010-07-20 Revised:2010-09-26 Online:2011-01-25 Published:2011-03-11
  • Supported by:

    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40901054

摘要: 气候变化和人类活动是导致沙漠化的两大驱动力,系统评价两者在沙漠化过程中的相对作用对于深入理解沙漠化过程的驱动力作用机理以及开展防沙治沙工作具有重要的意义。本研究从定性—半定量和定量研究两个方面对目前气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用评价方法进行了系统的梳理,认为目前的评价方法存在着主观性强、可重复操作性差、多基于行政单元而缺乏在连续的空间域上来评价气候变化和人类活动相对作用等不足。基于对以往研究的总结和笔者近阶段的相关研究成果,笔者认为开展气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用的评价工作关键是突破两类驱动力相对作用在连续的空间域上进行评价和表达这一瓶颈的制约,并提出了以定量研究为核心,以NPP为衡量气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用的公共指标,通过拆分“驱动力作用—沙漠化土地动态响应”这一生态过程为若干可能情景来构建气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用评价方法的思路。此外,在进行定量评价时,还需要考虑结果验证以及评价尺度这两个重点问题对评价结果和结论的影响

关键词: 沙漠化, 气候变化, 人类活动, 相对作用评价

Abstract: Desertification is becoming one of the most serious global social-economicenvironmental issues of our time, which threatens human survival and development. Climate change and human activities are the two kinds of driving forces in desertification, and assessing their relative role in desertification has important significance for deeply understanding the driving mechanism of desertification and preventing desertification expansion. This paper systematically reviewed the methods of assessing the relative role of climate change and human activities in desertification from qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative aspects. The authors found that there were some disadvantages in the previous researches. For example, the subjectivity in assessment was obvious, the assessment cannot be easily repeated, and the assessment and its results were always based on administrative regions and less taken and expressed in continuous space. According to the progress of previous researches and the works conducted by the authors recently, we thought that the key point of assessing the relative role of climate change and human activities in desertification was breaking through the bottleneck that restricted the expression of the relative role of two drivers in continuous space. Meanwhile, the authors put forward a quantitative approach to assess the relative role of climate change and human activities in desertification basing on selecting NPP as a common indicator to measure the relative role of climate change and human activities in desertification and identifying the ecological process of "driving force affecting-desertification land dynamically responded" into several scenarios. Besides, validation and scale of assessment should be taken into account when quantitatively assessing the relative role of climate change and human activities in desertification.

Key words: desertification, climate change, human activities