气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用评价综述

doi:10.11821/xb201101007

地理学报 ›› 2011, Vol. 66 ›› Issue (1): 68-76.doi: 10.11821/xb201101007

气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用评价综述

许端阳^1,4, 李春蕾², 庄大方³, 潘剑君⁴

1. 中国科学技术信息研究所, 北京100038;
2. 新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院, 乌鲁木齐830054;
3. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101;
4. 南京农业大学资源与环境科学学院, 南京210095

收稿日期:2010-07-20 修回日期:2010-09-26 出版日期:2011-01-25 发布日期:2011-01-25
作者简介:许端阳(1983-), 男, 博士, 助理研究员, 主要从事气候变化与沙漠化、科技政策与管理等方面的研究。E-mail: xudy@istic.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(40901054)

Assessment of the Relative Role of Climate Change and Human Activities in Desertification:A Review

XU Duanyang^1,4, LI Chunlei², ZHUANG Dafang³, PAN Jianjun⁴

1. Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China, Beijing 100038, China;
2. College of Geography Science and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi 830054, China;
3. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
4. College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China

Received:2010-07-20 Revised:2010-09-26 Online:2011-01-25 Published:2011-01-25
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40901054

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 气候变化和人类活动是导致沙漠化的两大驱动力，系统评价两者在沙漠化过程中的相对作用对于深入理解沙漠化过程的驱动力作用机理以及开展防沙治沙工作具有重要的意义。本研究从定性—半定量和定量研究两个方面对目前气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用评价方法进行了系统的梳理，认为目前的评价方法存在着主观性强、可重复操作性差、多基于行政单元而缺乏在连续的空间域上来评价气候变化和人类活动相对作用等不足。基于对以往研究的总结和笔者近阶段的相关研究成果，笔者认为开展气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用的评价工作关键是突破两类驱动力相对作用在连续的空间域上进行评价和表达这一瓶颈的制约，并提出了以定量研究为核心，以NPP为衡量气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用的公共指标，通过拆分“驱动力作用—沙漠化土地动态响应”这一生态过程为若干可能情景来构建气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用评价方法的思路。此外，在进行定量评价时，还需要考虑结果验证以及评价尺度这两个重点问题对评价结果和结论的影响

关键词: 沙漠化, 气候变化, 人类活动, 相对作用评价

Abstract: Desertification is becoming one of the most serious global social-economicenvironmental issues of our time, which threatens human survival and development. Climate change and human activities are the two kinds of driving forces in desertification, and assessing their relative role in desertification has important significance for deeply understanding the driving mechanism of desertification and preventing desertification expansion. This paper systematically reviewed the methods of assessing the relative role of climate change and human activities in desertification from qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative aspects. The authors found that there were some disadvantages in the previous researches. For example, the subjectivity in assessment was obvious, the assessment cannot be easily repeated, and the assessment and its results were always based on administrative regions and less taken and expressed in continuous space. According to the progress of previous researches and the works conducted by the authors recently, we thought that the key point of assessing the relative role of climate change and human activities in desertification was breaking through the bottleneck that restricted the expression of the relative role of two drivers in continuous space. Meanwhile, the authors put forward a quantitative approach to assess the relative role of climate change and human activities in desertification basing on selecting NPP as a common indicator to measure the relative role of climate change and human activities in desertification and identifying the ecological process of "driving force affecting-desertification land dynamically responded" into several scenarios. Besides, validation and scale of assessment should be taken into account when quantitatively assessing the relative role of climate change and human activities in desertification.

Key words: desertification, climate change, human activities

许端阳, 李春蕾, 庄大方, 潘剑君. 气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用评价综述[J]. 地理学报, 2011, 66(1): 68-76.

XU Duanyang, LI Chunlei, ZHUANG Dafang, PAN Jianjun. Assessment of the Relative Role of Climate Change and Human Activities in Desertification:A Review[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(1): 68-76.

参考文献

[1] Wang Tao, Zhu Zhenda. Study on sandy desertification in China: 1. Definition of sandy desertification and its connotation.Journal of Desert Research, 2003, 23(3): 209-214. [王涛, 朱震达. 我国沙漠化研究的若干问题: 1. 沙漠化的概念及其内涵. 中国沙漠, 2003, 23(3): 209-214.]

[2] State Forestry Administration. The Third Communique of Desertification and Sandy Desertification in China, 2007. http://www.gov.cn/ztzl/fszs/content_650487.htm. [国家林业局. 第三次中国荒漠化和沙漠化公报, 2007. http://www.gov.cn/ztzl/fszs/content_650487.htm.]

[3] Wang Tao. Study on sandy desertification in China: 4. Strategy and approach for combating sandy desertification. Journalof Desert Research, 2004, 24(2): 115-123. [王涛. 我国沙漠化研究的若干问题: 4. 沙漠化的防治战略与途径. 中国沙漠,2004, 24(2): 115-123.]

[4] Wang Tao. Study on sandy desertification in China: 2. Contents of desertification. Journal of Desert Research, 2003, 23(5):477-482. [王涛. 我国沙漠化研究的若干问题: 2. 沙漠化的研究内容. 中国沙漠, 2003, 23(5): 477-482.]

[5] Wang Tao, Wu Wei, Zhao Halin et al. Analyses on driving factors to sandy desertification process in Horqin region, China.Journal of Desert Research, 2004, 24(5): 519-528. [王涛, 吴薇, 赵哈林等. 科尔沁地区现代沙漠化过程的驱动因素分析. 中国沙漠, 2004, 24(5): 519-528.]

[6] Gao Xiaohong, Wang Yimou, Wang Jianhua et al. Analysis on desertification dynamics based on remote sensing and GIS inzone along the Great Wall in northern Shaanxi Province. Journal of Desert Research, 2005, 25(1): 63-67. [高小红, 王一谋,王建华等. 陕北长城沿线地区1986-2000 年沙漠化动态变化分析. 中国沙漠, 2005, 25(1): 63-67.]

[7] Ma Shaoxiu, Wang Tao, Xue Xian et al. Dynamic changes of desertification land in the northern Xilinguole grassland.Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2007, 21(3): 77-82. [马绍休, 王涛, 薛娴等. 锡林郭勒盟北五旗近5 年沙漠化过程及成因分析. 干旱区资源与环境, 2007, 21(3): 77-82.]

[8] Liu Shulin, Wang Tao. Primary study on sandy desertification in Otindag sandy land and its surrounding regions. Journal of741期许端阳等：气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用评价综述Soil and Water Conservation, 2004, 18(5): 99-103. [刘树林, 王涛. 浑善达克沙地地区土地沙漠化初步研究. 水土保持学报, 2004, 18(5): 99-103.]

[9] Zheng Y R, Xie Z X, Robert C et al. Did climate drive ecosystem change and induce desertification in Otindag sandy land,China over the past 40 years? Journal of Arid Environments, 2006, 64: 523-541.

[10] Wang X M, Chen H F, Dong Z B. The relative role of climatic and human factors in desertification in semiarid China.Global Environment Change, 2006, 16: 48-57.

[11] Wang X M, Zhang C X, Hasi E et al. Has the Three Norths Forest Shelterbelt Program solved the desertification and duststorm problems in arid and semiarid China? Journal of Arid Environments, 2010, 74: 13-22.

[12] Xu Xiaoling, Yan Junping. Research on quantitative relations between human factors and desertification in northernShaanxi sandy area. Journal of Arid Land Research and Environment, 2005, 19(5): 38-41. [徐小玲, 延军平. 陕北沙区人为因素与沙漠化的定量关系研究. 干旱区资源与环境, 2005, 19(5): 38-41.]

[13] Sun Danfeng. Analysis of socio-economic driving forces on land desertification at Minqin County in Gansu Province in1988-1997. Transactions of the CSAE, 2005, (suppl.1): 131-135. [孙丹峰. 民勤1988-1997 年间土地荒漠化社会经济驱动力分析. 农业工程学报, 2005, (增刊1): 131-135.]

[14] Zhang Yushu, Wang Lixin, Zhang Hongqi et al. Influence of environmental factor changes on desertification process inShule River. Resources Science, 2003, 25(6): 60-65. [章予舒, 王立新, 张红旗等. 甘肃疏勒河流域环境因子变异对荒漠化态势的影响. 资源科学, 2003, 25(6): 60-65.]

[15] Dong Yuxiang. Principal components analysis of influential factors of desertification. Arid Zone Research, 1989, 6(4):34-41. [董玉祥. 土地沙漠化影响因子的定量分析. 干旱区研究, 1989, 6(4): 34-41.]

[16] Zhang Dengshan. Quantitative analysis of influential factors on land desertification in Qinghai Gonghe Basin. Journal ofDesert Research, 2000, 20(1): 59-62. [张登山. 青海共和盆地土地沙漠化影响因子的定量分析. 中国沙漠, 2000, 20(1):59-62.]

[17] Ma Y H, Fan S Y, Zhou L H et al. The temporal change of driving factors during the course of land desertification in aridregion of North China: The case of Minqin County. Environment Geology, 2007, 51: 999-1008.

[18] Li S, Zheng Y, Luo P et al. Desertification in western Hainan Island, China (1959-2003). Land Degradation andDevelopment, 2007, 18(5): 473-485.

[19] Li Zhenshan, He Limin, Wang Tao. A method for determining the contribution of natural factors on sandy pasturedesertification. Journal of Desert Research, 2006, 26(5): 687-692. [李振山, 贺丽敏, 王涛. 现代草地沙漠化中自然因素贡献率的确定方法. 中国沙漠, 2006, 26(5): 687-692.]

[20] Evans J, Geerken R. Discriminating between climate and human-induced dryland degradation. Journal of AridEnvironments, 2004, 57: 535-554.

[21] Wessels K J, Prince S D, Malherbe J et al. Can human-induced land degradation be distinguished from the effects ofrainfall variability? A case study in South Africa. Journal of Arid Environments, 2007, 68: 271-297.

[22] Geerken R, Ilaiwi M. Assessment of rangeland degradation and development of a strategy for rehabilitation. RemoteSensing of Environment, 2004, 90: 490-504.

[23] Herrmann S M, Anyamba A, Tucker C J. Recent trends in vegetation dynamics in the African Sahel and their relationshipto climate. Global Environment Change, 2005, 15: 394-404.

[24] Archer Emma R M. Beyond the "climate versus grazing" impasse: using remote sensing to investigate the effect of grazingsystem choice on vegetation cover in the eastern Karoo. Journal of Arid Environments, 2004, 57: 381-408.

[25] Wessels K J, Prince S D, Reshef I. Mapping land degradation by comparison of vegetation production to spatially derivedestimates of potential production. Journal of Arid Environments, 2008, 72: 1940-1949.

[26] Zhang Chunlai, Dong Guangrong, Zou Xueyong et al. Contributing ratios of several factors to the steppe desertification inGuinan, Qinghai Province. Journal of Desert Research, 2005, 25(4): 511-518. [张春来, 董光荣, 邹学勇等. 青海贵南草原沙漠化影响因子贡献率的确定. 中国沙漠, 2005, 25(4): 511-518.]

[27] Rojstaczer S, Sterling S M, Moore N J. Human appropriation of photosynthesis products. Science, 2001, 294: 2549-2552.

[28] Haberl H, Erausmann F, Erb K H et al. Human appropriation of net primary production. Science, 2002, 296: 1968-1969.

[29] Haberl H, Erb K H, Krausmann F et al. Quantifying and mapping the human appropriation of net primary production inearth's terrestrial ecosystems. PNAS, 2007, 104: 12942-12947.

[30] O'Neill D W, Tyedmers P H, Beazley K F. Human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) in Nova Scotia,Canada. Regional Environment Change, 2007, 7: 1-14.

[31] Zika M, Erb K. Net primary production losses due to human-induced desertification. Second International Conference onEarth System Modelling (ICESM), 2007, 1.

[32] Prince S D. Spatial and temporal scales for detection of desertification//Reynolds J F, Stafford Smith D M. GlobalDesertification: Do Humans Cause Deserts? Berlin: Dahlem University Press, 2002: 23-40.

[33] Xu D Y, Kang X W, Liu Z L et al. Assessing the relative role of climate change and human activities in sandydesertification of Ordos region, China. Science in China: Series D, 2009, 52: 855-868.

[34] Dong Guangrong, Jin Heling, Chen Huizhong et al. Geneses of desertification in semiarid and subhumid regions of northChina. Quaternary Sciences, 1998, (2): 136-143. [董光荣, 靳鹤龄, 陈惠忠等. 中国北方半干旱和半湿润地区沙漠化的成因. 第四纪研究, 1998, (2): 136-143.]

[35] Xu D Y, Kang X W, Zhuang D F et al. Multi-scale quantitative assessment of the relative roles of climate change andhuman activities in desertification: A case study of the Ordos Plateau, China. Journal of Arid Environments, 2010, 74:498-507.

气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用评价综述

Assessment of the Relative Role of Climate Change and Human Activities in Desertification:A Review

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

被引次数

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	董广辉, 仇梦晗, 李若, 陈发虎. 探讨过去人地关系演变机制的“支点”概念模型[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(1): 15-29.
[2]	李哲, 丁永建, 陈艾姣, 张智华, 张世强. 1960—2019年西北地区气候变化中的Hiatus现象及特征[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(9): 1845-1859.
[3]	郭泽呈, 魏伟, 石培基, 周亮, 王旭峰, 李振亚, 庞素菲, 颉斌斌. 中国西北干旱区土地沙漠化敏感性时空格局[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(9): 1948-1965.
[4]	许珺, 徐阳, 胡蕾, 王振波. 基于位置大数据的青藏高原人类活动时空模式[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(7): 1406-1417.
[5]	左其亭, 崔国韬. 人类活动对河湖水系连通的影响评估[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(7): 1483-1493.
[6]	金凯, 王飞, 韩剑桥, 史尚渝, 丁文斌. 1982—2015年中国气候变化和人类活动对植被NDVI变化的影响[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(5): 961-974.
[7]	李双双, 汪成博, 延军平, 刘宪锋. 面向事件过程的秦岭南北极端降水时空变化特征[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(5): 989-1007.
[8]	田晶, 郭生练, 刘德地, 陈启会, 王强, 尹家波, 吴旭树, 何绍坤. 气候与土地利用变化对汉江流域径流的影响[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(11): 2307-2318.
[9]	萧凌波, 闫军辉. 基于地方志的1736-1911年华北秋粮丰歉指数序列重建及其与气候变化的关系[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(9): 1777-1788.
[10]	李双双, 延军平, 武亚群, 汪成博. 秦岭—淮河南北供暖格局变化及其影响因素[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(9): 1866-1877.
[11]	佟彪, 党安荣, 许剑. 300 BC-1900 AD无定河流域城镇时空格局演变[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(8): 1508-1524.
[12]	刘娟,姚晓军,刘时银,郭万钦,许君利. 1970-2016年冈底斯山冰川变化[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(7): 1333-1344.
[13]	杨宇,李小云,董雯,洪辉,何则,金凤君,刘毅. 中国人地关系综合评价的理论模型与实证[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(6): 1063-1078.
[14]	马丹阳, 尹云鹤, 吴绍洪, 郑度. 中国干湿格局对未来高排放情景下气候变化响应的敏感性[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(5): 857-874.
[15]	刘俊,黄莉,孙晓倩,李宁馨,张恒锦. 气候变化对中国观鸟旅游的影响——基于鸟类物候变化的分析[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(5): 912-922.