地理学报 ›› 2011, Vol. 66 ›› Issue (1): 59-67.doi: 10.11821/xb201101006

• 气候变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候暖干化背景下甘肃旱作区玉米气候适宜性变化

姚小英1,2, 蒲金涌3, 姚茹莘4, 贾海源2, 马杰2   

  1. 1. 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省中国气象局 干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放 实验室, 兰州730020;
    2. 天水市气象局, 天水741000;
    3. 甘肃省天水农业气象试验站, 天水741020;
    4. 天水市石马坪中学, 兰州730020
  • 收稿日期:2010-07-19 修回日期:2010-11-02 出版日期:2011-01-25 发布日期:2011-03-11
  • 作者简介:姚小英(1968-), 女, 高级工程师, 主要从事气象业务及应用气象试验研究工作。E-mail: tsyxy66@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    甘肃省气象局“十人计划”; 国家科技部公益行业专项(GYHY200806021)

Variation of Climate Suitability of Maize in Arid Area in Gansu under the Condition of Climate Dry-warming

YAO Xiaoying1,2, PU Jinyong3, YAO Ruxin4, JIA Haiyuan2, MAJie2   

  1. 1. Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Open Laboratory of Climate Change and Reducing Disaster of China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020, China;
    2. Tianshui Meteorological Bureau, Tianshui 741000, Gansu, China;
    3. The Agrometeorological Experimental Station of Tianshui, Tianshui 741020, Gansu, China;
    4. The Shimaping Middle School, Qinzhou District of Tianshui, 741000 Gansu, China
  • Received:2010-07-19 Revised:2010-11-02 Online:2011-01-25 Published:2011-03-11
  • Supported by:

    "Ten-Talent Plan" of Gansu Meteorological Bureau; Public Welfare Industry Special Item of National Science Technology Department, No.GYHY200806021

摘要: 运用甘肃旱作区5 个农业气象试验站及农业气象观测站1981-2008 年的玉米平均物候资料及相同地点气象站1971-2008 年的逐日气象资料,建立了玉米各个气候因子适宜度及综合气候适宜度计算模型,对1971-2008 年玉米全生育期及各主要玉米生育阶段的气候因子及综合气候适宜度进行了计算分析。结果表明,自1971 年以来,玉米全生育期温度、光照适宜度呈上升趋势,降水适宜度呈下降趋势。各气候因子组合效果趋好。全生育期内,以播种—出苗期及抽雄期—乳熟期各气候因子的组合效果较差,拔节期—抽雄期及乳熟期—成熟期各气候因子的组合效果较好。播种—出苗期光照、温度适宜度随年份线性变化不明显,降水适宜度逐年线性降低,综合气候适宜性逐年变差。出苗期—拔节期、乳熟期—成熟期光照适宜度随年份呈上升趋势,降水适宜度呈下降趋势,综合气候适宜度呈下降趋势。拔节期—抽雄期光照、温度适宜度随年份呈上升趋势,降水适宜度随年份线性变化不明显,综合气候适宜度呈上升趋势。抽雄期—乳熟期光照适宜度随年份呈下降趋势,降水适宜度呈上升趋势,温度适宜度线性变化不明显。综合气候适宜度呈上升趋势。出苗期—拔节期、拔节期—抽雄期及抽雄期—乳熟期的光照适宜度与产量相关性比较显著,播种—出苗期及抽雄期—乳熟期的温度适宜度与产量相关性比较显著,拔节期—抽雄期及抽雄期—乳熟期的降水适宜度与产量相关性显著。未来温度适宜性变好,气候变化利于玉米生长发育

关键词: 旱作区, 玉米, 气候适宜性, 降水, 甘肃

Abstract: The precipitation suitability degree and given year had no good linearity and temperature and light suitability degree had increased with year and synthesized climate suitability had improved in jointing to tasseling period. Duing the tasseling to milky mature period, the temperature suitability degree and given year had no good linearity and light suitability degree had went down and precipitation suitability degree had increased and synthesized climate suitability improved with year. The correlative relationship between unit yield and light suitability degree in emergence to jointing, jointing to tasseling, and tasseling to milky mature are notability. The correlative relationship between unit yield and temperature suitability degree in sowing to emergence tasseling to milky mature are notability. The correlative relationship between unit yield and precipitation suitability degree in jointing to tasseling and tasseling to milky mature are notability. The climate changes are favorable for maize production, because of temperature suitability degree increasing in the future.

Key words: arid area, maize, climate suitability, precipitation, Gansu