气候暖干化背景下甘肃旱作区玉米气候适宜性变化

doi:10.11821/xb201101006

地理学报 ›› 2011, Vol. 66 ›› Issue (1): 59-67.doi: 10.11821/xb201101006

气候暖干化背景下甘肃旱作区玉米气候适宜性变化

姚小英^1,2, 蒲金涌³, 姚茹莘⁴, 贾海源², 马杰²

1. 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室, 兰州730020;
2. 天水市气象局, 天水741000;
3. 甘肃省天水农业气象试验站, 天水741020;
4. 天水市石马坪中学, 兰州730020

收稿日期:2010-07-19 修回日期:2010-11-02 出版日期:2011-01-25 发布日期:2011-01-25
作者简介:姚小英(1968-), 女, 高级工程师, 主要从事气象业务及应用气象试验研究工作。E-mail: tsyxy66@163.com
基金资助:
甘肃省气象局“十人计划”; 国家科技部公益行业专项(GYHY200806021)

Variation of Climate Suitability of Maize in Arid Area in Gansu under the Condition of Climate Dry-warming

YAO Xiaoying^1,2, PU Jinyong³, YAO Ruxin⁴, JIA Haiyuan², MAJie²

1. Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Open Laboratory of Climate Change and Reducing Disaster of China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020, China;
2. Tianshui Meteorological Bureau, Tianshui 741000, Gansu, China;
3. The Agrometeorological Experimental Station of Tianshui, Tianshui 741020, Gansu, China;
4. The Shimaping Middle School, Qinzhou District of Tianshui, 741000 Gansu, China

Received:2010-07-19 Revised:2010-11-02 Online:2011-01-25 Published:2011-01-25
Supported by:
"Ten-Talent Plan" of Gansu Meteorological Bureau; Public Welfare Industry Special Item of National Science Technology Department, No.GYHY200806021

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 运用甘肃旱作区5 个农业气象试验站及农业气象观测站1981-2008 年的玉米平均物候资料及相同地点气象站1971-2008 年的逐日气象资料，建立了玉米各个气候因子适宜度及综合气候适宜度计算模型，对1971-2008 年玉米全生育期及各主要玉米生育阶段的气候因子及综合气候适宜度进行了计算分析。结果表明，自1971 年以来，玉米全生育期温度、光照适宜度呈上升趋势，降水适宜度呈下降趋势。各气候因子组合效果趋好。全生育期内，以播种—出苗期及抽雄期—乳熟期各气候因子的组合效果较差，拔节期—抽雄期及乳熟期—成熟期各气候因子的组合效果较好。播种—出苗期光照、温度适宜度随年份线性变化不明显，降水适宜度逐年线性降低，综合气候适宜性逐年变差。出苗期—拔节期、乳熟期—成熟期光照适宜度随年份呈上升趋势，降水适宜度呈下降趋势，综合气候适宜度呈下降趋势。拔节期—抽雄期光照、温度适宜度随年份呈上升趋势，降水适宜度随年份线性变化不明显，综合气候适宜度呈上升趋势。抽雄期—乳熟期光照适宜度随年份呈下降趋势，降水适宜度呈上升趋势，温度适宜度线性变化不明显。综合气候适宜度呈上升趋势。出苗期—拔节期、拔节期—抽雄期及抽雄期—乳熟期的光照适宜度与产量相关性比较显著，播种—出苗期及抽雄期—乳熟期的温度适宜度与产量相关性比较显著，拔节期—抽雄期及抽雄期—乳熟期的降水适宜度与产量相关性显著。未来温度适宜性变好，气候变化利于玉米生长发育

关键词: 旱作区, 玉米, 气候适宜性, 降水, 甘肃

Abstract: The precipitation suitability degree and given year had no good linearity and temperature and light suitability degree had increased with year and synthesized climate suitability had improved in jointing to tasseling period. Duing the tasseling to milky mature period, the temperature suitability degree and given year had no good linearity and light suitability degree had went down and precipitation suitability degree had increased and synthesized climate suitability improved with year. The correlative relationship between unit yield and light suitability degree in emergence to jointing, jointing to tasseling, and tasseling to milky mature are notability. The correlative relationship between unit yield and temperature suitability degree in sowing to emergence tasseling to milky mature are notability. The correlative relationship between unit yield and precipitation suitability degree in jointing to tasseling and tasseling to milky mature are notability. The climate changes are favorable for maize production, because of temperature suitability degree increasing in the future.

Key words: arid area, maize, climate suitability, precipitation, Gansu

姚小英, 蒲金涌, 姚茹莘, 贾海源, 马杰. 气候暖干化背景下甘肃旱作区玉米气候适宜性变化[J]. 地理学报, 2011, 66(1): 59-67.

YAO Xiaoying, PU Jinyong, YAO Ruxin, JIA Haiyuan, MAJie. Variation of Climate Suitability of Maize in Arid Area in Gansu under the Condition of Climate Dry-warming[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(1): 59-67.

参考文献

[1] Lin Erda. Damage level of climate change and building the adaptive capacity for sustainable development. Advances inClimate Change Research, 2005, 1(2): 76-79. [林而达. 气候变化的危险水平与可持续发展的适应能力建设. 气候变化研究进展, 2005, 1(2): 76-79.]

[2] Chao Qingchen, Hu Guoquan. Climate change risk, challenges and decision. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2009,5(4): 249. [巢清尘, 胡国权. 气候变化的风险、挑战与决策. 气候变化研究进展, 2009, 5(4): 249.]

[3] Gao Suhua. Possible influence of climate on agriculture in China next 30 years//Experiment and Research of Influence ofClimate Changing on Agriculture in China. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 1993: 282-296. [高素华. 未来30 年气候对我国农业的可能影响//中国气候变化对农业影响的实验与研究. 北京: 气象出版社, 1993: 282-296.]

[4] Wang Shili, Ma Yuping, Zhuang Liwei. Improvement study on prediction and assessment model for chilling damage ofmaize in Northeast China. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2008, 17(4): 12-18. [王石立, 马玉平, 庄立伟. 东北地区玉米冷害预测评估模型改进研究. 自然灾害学报, 2008, 17(4): 12-18.]

[5] Wang Jianyuan, Xue Deqiang, Zou Shufeng et al. Impact of global warming on agriculture in Shandong Province of China.Resources Science, 2006, 28(1): 163-168. [王建源, 薛德强, 邹树峰等.气候变暖对山东农业的影响. 资源科学, 2006, 28(1): 163-168.]

[6] Liu Zhijuan, Yang Xiaoguang, Wang Wenbo et al. Characteristics of agricultural climate resources in three provinces ofNortheast China under global climate change. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2009, 20(9): 2199-2206. [刘志娟, 杨晓光, 王文博,等. 气候变化背景下我国东北三省农业气候资源变化特征. 应用生态学报, 2009, 20(9): 2199-2206.]

[7] Zhao Feng, Qian Huaisui. The research advances on the crop climate suitability influenced by global warming. ChineseJournal of Eco-Agriculture, 2004, 12(2): 134-137. [赵峰, 千怀遂. 全球变暖影响下农作物气候适宜性研究进展. 中国生态农业学报, 2004, 12(2): 134-137.]

[8] Wang Yuan, Fang Xiuqi, Xu Tan et al. Impact of climate warming and adaptive activities of rice plantation in NorthwestChina. Resources Science, 2005, 27(1): 121-127. [王媛, 方修琦, 徐锬等. 气候变暖与东北地区水稻种植的适应行为. 资源科学, 2005, 27(1): 121-127.]

[9] Jiao Nianyuan, Zhao Chun, Ning Tangyuan et al. Effects of maize-peanut intercropping on economic yield and lightresponse of photosynthesis. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2008, 19(5): 981-985. [焦念元, 赵春, 宁堂原等. 玉米—花生间作对作物产量和光合作用光响应的影响. 应用生态学报, 2008, 19(5): 981-985.]

[10] Liu Taoju, Yin Xinyou, Qi Changhan et al. Relationship between climate change and rice development and its yieldformation: A simulation study. Journal of Applied Ecology, 2005, 16(3): 486-490. [刘桃菊, 殷新佑, 戚昌翰等. 气候变化与水稻的产量形成: 模拟研究. 应用生态学报, 2005, 16(3): 486-490.]

[11] Wang Qi, Ma Shunqing, Guo Jianping et al. Effects of air temperature on maize growth and its yield. Chinese Journal ofEcology, 2009, 28(2): 255-260. [王琪, 马树庆, 郭建平等. 温度对玉米生长量和产量的影响. 生态学杂志, 2009, 28(2):255-260.]

[12] Zhao Jiongfang, Yang Xiaoguang, Liu Zhijuan. Influence of climate warming on serious low temperature and cold damageand cultivation pattern of spring maize in Northeast China. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2009, 29(12): 6544-6551. [赵俊芳, 杨晓光, 刘志娟. 气候变暖对东北三省春玉米严重低温冷害及种植布局的影响. 生态学报, 2009, 29(12): 6544-6551.]

[13] Deng Zhenyong, Zhang Qian, Pu Jinyong et al. The impact of climate warming on crop planting and production innorthwest China. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2008, 28(8): 3760-3768. [邓振镛, 张强, 蒲金涌等. 气候变暖对中国西北地区农作物种植的影响. 生态学报, 2008, 28(8): 3760-3768.]

[14] Zhang Jianping, Wang Chunyi, Yang Xiaoguang et al. Impact forecast of future climate change on maize waterrequirement in three province of Northeast China. Transaction of the CSAE, 2009, 25(7): 50-55. [张建平, 王春乙, 杨晓光等. 未来气候变化对中国东北三省玉米需水量的影响预测. 农业工程学报, 2009, 25(7): 50-55. ]

[15] Zhang Jiwang, Dong Shuting, Wang Kongjun et al. Effects of high field temperature on summer maize yield and quality.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2007, 18(1): 52-56. [张吉旺, 董树亭, 王空军等. 大田增温对夏玉米产量和品质的影响. 应用生态学报, 2007, 18(1): 52-56.]

[16] Zhao Feng, Qian Huaisui, Jiao Shixing. Climate suitability model of crop. Resources Science, 2003, 25(6): 78-82. [赵峰,千怀遂, 焦士兴. 农作物气候适宜度研究. 资源科学, 2003, 25(6): 78-82.]

[17] Qian Huaisui, Jiao Shixing. Climate suitability change of wheat in Henan Province. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2005, 24(5): 503-507. [千怀遂, 焦士兴. 河南省冬小麦气候适宜性变化研究. 生态学杂志, 2005, 24(5): 503-507.]

[18] Gong Shaoxian. Crop and Meteorology. Beijing: Beijing Agriculture University Press, 1987: 245-248, 260. [龚绍先. 粮食作物与气象. 北京: 北京农业大学出版社, 1987: 245-248, 260.

[19] Liu Yu, Pereira L S. Validation of FAO methods for estimating crop coefficient. Transaction of the CSAE, 2000, 16(5):26-30. [刘钰, Pereira L S. 对FAO推荐的作物系数计算方法的验证. 农业工程学报, 2000, 16(5): 26-30.]

[20] Liu Yaodong, Liu Zouxin, Zhang Yunfu. Assessment of calculation method in reference crop evapotranspiration. HenanAgriculture University Transaction, 2001, 35(1): 57-61. [刘尧东, 刘作新, 张运福. 参考作物蒸散计算方法及其评价. 河南农业大学学报, 2001, 35(1): 57-61.]

[21] Pu Jinyong, Zhang Cunjie. Dynamic variation of water adaptability of wheat in Gansu. Resources Science, 2008, 30(9):1397-1402. [蒲金涌, 张存杰. 甘肃省冬小麦水分适应性动态变化研究. 资源科学, 2008, 30(9): 1397-1402.]

[22] Yang Xiaoli, Pu Jinyong, Ma Pengli et al. A assessment of apple water suitability in eastern Gansu Province. Journal ofNorthwest A&F University: Natural Science Edition, 2009, 37(9): 71-76. [杨小利, 蒲金涌, 马鹏里等. 陇东地区苹果水分适宜性评估. 西北农林科技大学学报: 自然科学版, 2009, 37(9): 71-76.]

[23] Wang Lixia, Ren Zhiyuan. Appraisal and analysis of agriculture eco-climatic amenity in Datong city of Shanxi Province.Geographical Research, 2007, 26(1): 53-59. [王丽霞, 任志远. 山西大同市农业生态气候适宜度评价. 地理研究, 2007,26(1): 53-59.]

[24] Tu Qipu, Deng Ziwang. Studies on the regional characteristics of air temperature abnormal in China. Acta MeteorologicaSinica, 2000, 58(3): 289-296. [屠其璞, 邓自旺. 中国气温异常的区域特征研究. 气象学报, 2000, 58(3): 289-296.]

[25] Liu Dexiang, Dong Anxiang, Lu Dengrong. The climate change in recent 43 years and its impact to agriculture inNorthwest China. Agriculture Research in the Arid Areas, 2005, 23(2): 195-201. [刘德祥, 董安祥, 陆登荣. 中国西北地区近43 年气候变化及其对农业生产的影响. 干旱地区农业研究, 2005, 23(2): 195-201.]

[26] Maize Research Institute, Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences translate and edit Maize Physiology. Shanghai:Shanghai Science and Technology Press, 1982, 56-62.[ 山东省农业科学院玉米研究所编译. 玉米生理. 上海: 上海科技出版社, 1981: 176-188.]

[27] Liu Mingchun, Deng Zhenyong. The suitable planting division of corn in Gansu. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2005, 23(3): 34-39. [刘明春, 邓振镛. 甘肃省玉米适生区划. 干旱地区农业研究, 2005, 23(3): 34-39.]

[28] Qin Dahe, Chen Zhenlin, Luo Yong. Updated understanding of climate change sciences. Advances in Climate ChangeResearch, 2007, 3(2): 63-73. [秦大河, 陈振林, 罗勇. 气候变化的最新认知. 气候变化研究进展, 2007, 3(2): 63-73.]

气候暖干化背景下甘肃旱作区玉米气候适宜性变化

Variation of Climate Suitability of Maize in Arid Area in Gansu under the Condition of Climate Dry-warming

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

被引次数

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	温庆志, 孙鹏, 张强, 姚蕊. 非平稳标准化降水蒸散指数构建及中国未来干旱时空格局[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(7): 1465-1482.
[2]	李双双, 汪成博, 延军平, 刘宪锋. 面向事件过程的秦岭南北极端降水时空变化特征[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(5): 989-1007.
[3]	王芳, 张晋韬. 《巴黎协定》排放情景下中亚地区降水变化响应[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(1): 25-40.
[4]	何丽烨, 程善俊, 马宁, 郭军. 海河流域夏季降水关键区季内演变及其环流配置的定量化分析[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(1): 41-52.
[5]	刘晓琼, 吴泽洲, 刘彦随, 赵新正, 芮旸, 张健. 1960-2015年青海三江源地区降水时空特征[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(9): 1803-1820.
[6]	曾岁康,雍斌. 全球降水计划IMERG和GSMaP反演降水在四川地区的精度评估[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(7): 1305-1318.
[7]	陆福志,鹿化煜. 秦岭—大巴山高分辨率气温和降水格点数据集的建立及其对区域气候的指示[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(5): 875-888.
[8]	杨家伟, 陈华, 侯雨坤, 赵英, 陈启会, 许崇育, 陈杰. 基于气象旱涝指数的旱涝急转事件识别方法[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(11): 2358-2370.
[9]	辛蕊, 段克勤. 2017年夏季秦岭降水的数值模拟及其空间分布[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(11): 2329-2341.
[10]	钱彩云,巩杰,张金茜,柳冬青,马学成. 甘肃白龙江流域生态系统服务变化及权衡与协同关系[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(5): 868-879.
[11]	秦雅,刘玉洁,葛全胜. 气候变化背景下1981-2010年中国玉米物候变化时空分异[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(5): 906-916.
[12]	尹占娥,田鹏飞,迟潇潇. 基于情景的1951-2011年中国极端降水风险评估[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(3): 405-413.
[13]	朱秀迪, 张强, 孙鹏. 北京市快速城市化对短时间尺度降水时空特征影响及成因[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(11): 2086-2104.
[14]	张晓东,朱文博,张静静,朱连奇,赵芳,崔耀平. 伏牛山地森林植被物候及其对气候变化的响应[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(1): 41-53.
[15]	张东良, 兰波, 杨运鹏. 不同时间尺度的阿尔泰山北部和南部降水对比研究[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(9): 1569-1579.