中国区域经济发展收敛的空间计量分析

doi:10.11821/xb201012010

地理学报 ›› 2010, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (12): 1548-1558.doi: 10.11821/xb201012010

中国区域经济发展收敛的空间计量分析

洪国志¹, 胡华颖², 李郇^1,2

1. 中山大学港澳珠三角洲研究中心，广州510275;
2. 中山大学城市与区域研究中心，广州510275

收稿日期:2010-01-23 修回日期:2010-07-15 出版日期:2010-12-20 发布日期:2010-12-20
通讯作者: 胡华颖(1956-), E-mail: gdtshhy@126.com李郇(1964-), 男, 教授, 主要研究方向为经济地理、经济增长。E-mail: lixun23@126.com
作者简介:洪国志(1984-), 男, 经济学硕士, 主要研究方向为经济增长和空间计量经济。E-mail: hongguozhi@foxmail.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金重点项目(40830532); 国家自然科学基金项目(40871066); 教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地项目(08JJD820170)

Analysis of Regional Growth Convergence with Spatial Econometrics in China

HONG Guozhi¹, HU Huaying², LI Xun^1,2

1. Center for Studies of Hong Kong, Macao and Pearl River Delta, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;
2. Center for Urban & Regional Studies, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China

Received:2010-01-23 Revised:2010-07-15 Online:2010-12-20 Published:2010-12-20
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40830532; No.40871066; Project of Key Humanities and Social Science Research Bases of Ministry of Education, No.08JJD820170

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 通过空间计量经济学经济收敛标准分析方法的扩展，就中国240 个地级及以上城市的经济增长收敛性展开讨论。运用Moran's I 探讨中国区域经济空间相关模式与集聚，发现1990-2007 年间人均GDP水平显示出强烈的全局正自相关，且局部空间结构相对稳定，各城市要脱离原来的集群有一定困难。文章指出收敛标准分析存在错误方程设定，空间计量分析方法是合适的。空间计量分析结果表明中国城市间存在绝对β收敛，与非空间模型相比收敛速度显著提高且可信，空间因素在区域经济增长与收敛过程中起到重要作用。但敏感性分析显示，绝对收敛的同一稳态以及在空间上并不稳健。从机制看，中国城市间同时存在新古典增长理论和新增长理论所强调的趋同机制。最后，对促进绝对收敛的区域政策进行了讨论，并提出通过模拟经济收敛过程，是判断区域政策有效性的重要工具。

关键词: 空间自相关, 空间计量经济学, β收敛, 收敛机制, 中国

Abstract: This paper proposes to combine the standard analysis method of economic convergence with spatial econometrics to explore regional convergence based on a total of 240 cities in China. To investigate the kind of spatial autocorrelation and agglomeration, the Moran's I statistic is used, finding that the existence of strongly positive global autocorrelation of GDP per capita and what's more, the local spatial structure is rather stable. The findings suggest that the non-spatial models applied to analyse β-convergence suffer from the risk of misspecification and a spatial model is competent. The results based on the spatial models indicate the existence of absolute convergence between cities. Taking into account effects results in a significant faster rate of convergence. The sensitivity test of the absolute convergence with respect to assumption of a common steady state and robustness over space suggest that the finding of absolute convergence is not stable. The mechanism of diminishing return and technology spillover is both important for absolute convergence. Finally, a set of regional policies are discussed.

Key words: spatial autocorrelation, spatial econometrics, &beta, convergence, convergence mechanism 1558

洪国志, 胡华颖, 李郇. 中国区域经济发展收敛的空间计量分析[J]. 地理学报, 2010, 65(12): 1548-1558.

HONG Guozhi, HU Huaying, LI Xun. Analysis of Regional Growth Convergence with Spatial Econometrics in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(12): 1548-1558.

参考文献

[1] Barro R, Sala-i-Martin X. Economic Growth. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1995.
[2] Dall'erba S, Le Gallo J. Regional convergence and the impact of European structural funds over 1989-1999: A spatial econometric analysis. Regional Science, 2008, 87(2): 219-244.
[3] Fingleton B, McCombie J S L. Increasing returns and economic growth: Some evidence for manufacturing from the European Union regions. Oxford Economic Papers, 1998, 50: 89-105.
[4] Romer P M. Increasing returns and long-run growth. Journal of political Economics, 1986, 94(5): 1002-1037.
[5] Lucas R. On the mechanics of economics development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 1988, 22: 3-42.
[6] Finleton B. Specification and testing of Markov chain models: An application to convergence in the European Union. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1997, 59: 385-403.
[7] Quah D. Twin peaks: Growth and convergence in models of distribution dynamics. The Economic Journal, 1996, 106: 1045-1055.
[8] Xu Xianxiang, Li Xun. Convergence in Chinese cities. Economic Research Journal, 2004, (5): 40-48.
[徐现祥, 李郇. 中国城市经济增长的趋同分析. 经济研究, 2004, (5): 40-48.]
[9] Lopez-Bazo E, Vaya E, Mora A J et al. Regional economic dynamics and convergence in the European Union. Annals of Regional Science, 1999, 33: 343-370.
[10] Rodriguez-Pose A, Fratesi U. Between development and social policies: The impact of European structural funds in objective regions. Regional Studies, 2004, 38: 97-113.
[11] Rey S, Montouri B. US regional income convergence: A spatial econometric. Regional Studies Association Perspective, 1999, 33: 146-156.
[12] Lee K, Pesaran M H, Smith R P. Growth and convergence in a multi-country empirical stochastic Solow model. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1997, 12(4): 357-392.
[13] Liu Qiang. Economic convergence in China. Economic Research Journal, 2001, (6): 70-76.
[刘强. 中国经济增长的收敛性分析. 经济研究, 2001, (6): 70-76.]
[14] Wang Zheng, Ge Zhaopan. The multiple equilibrium states of China and regional economic development and the omen of changes. Social Sciences in China, 2002, (4): 31-38.
[王铮, 葛昭攀. 中国区域经济发展的多重均衡态与转变前兆. 中国社会科学, 2002, (4): 31-38.]
[15] Ying L G. Understanding China's recent growth experience: A spatial econometric perspective. The Annals of Regional Science, 2003, 37: 613-628.
[16] Liu Qingchun. Analysis the role of geographic factors in economic growth with spatial econometrics
[D]. Shanghai: East China Normal University, 2007.
[刘清春. 经济增长中地理要素作用的空间计量经济分析
[D]. 上海: 华东师范大学, 2007.]
[17] Lin Guangping, Long Zhihe, Wu Mei. A spatial analysis of regional economic convergence in China: 1978-2002. China Economic Quarterly, 2005, 4(Suppl.): 67-82.
[林光平, 龙志和, 吴梅. 我国地区经济收敛的空间计量实证分析: 1978-2002 年. 经济学季刊,2005, 4(Suppl.): 67-82.]
[18] Wu Yuming. A spatial econometric analysis of China's provincial economic growth convergence. The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics, 2006, (12): 101-106.
[吴玉鸣. 中国省域经济增长趋同的空间计量经济分析. 数量经济技术经济研究, 2006, (12): 101-106.]
[19] Zhang Xueliang. A spatial econometrics analysis of regional economic convergence in China: Based on the empirical study of 132 counties, cities or regions in Yangtze River Delta from 1993 to 2006. Journal of Finance and Economics, 2009, (17): 100-109.
[张学良. 中国区域经济收敛的空间计量分析: 基于长三角1993-2006 年132 个县市区的实证研究. 财经研究, 2009, (17): 100-109.]
[20] Anselin L. Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models. Dordrecht: Kluwer, 1988.
[21] Wu Yuming. Spatial Econometric Study on Regional R&D, Knowledge Spillovers and Innovation of China. Beijing: People's Publishing House, 2007.
[吴玉鸣. 中国区域研发、知识溢出与创新的空间计量经济学研究. 北京: 人民出版社, 2007.]
[22] Anselin L, Hudak S. Spatial econometrics in practice: A review of software options. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 1992, 22.
[23] Finleton B, Lewney R, Pinelli D. Regional Growth and Convergence. London: Kogan Page, 1996.
[24] LeSage J P. Spatial econometrics. Toledo: Department of Economics, University of Tolendo, 1999.
[25] Brauninger M, Pannenberg M. Unemployment and productivity growth: An empirical analysis within an augmented Solow model. Economic Modelling, 2002, 19: 105-120.
[26] Levine R, Renelt D. A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions. American Economic Review, 1992, 82: 942-963.
[27] McMillen D P. One hundred fifty years of land values in Chicago: A nonparameteric approach. Journal of Urban Economics, 1996, 40: 100-124.
[28] Dowrick S, Rogers M. Classical and technological convergence: Beyond the Solow-Swan Growth Model. Oxford Economic Papers, 2002, 54: 369-385.

中国区域经济发展收敛的空间计量分析

Analysis of Regional Growth Convergence with Spatial Econometrics in China

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

被引次数

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	古恒宇, 沈体雁. 中国高学历人才的空间演化特征及驱动因素[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(2): 326-340.
[2]	朱晟君, 金文纨. 地方出口产品结构及制度环境与企业出口相关多样化[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(2): 398-414.
[3]	李钢, 薛淑艳, 马雪瑶, 周俊俊, 徐婷婷, 王皎贝. 中国失踪人口的时空格局演变与形成机制[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(2): 310-325.
[4]	葛全胜, 朱会义. 两千年来中国自然与人文地理环境变迁及启示[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(1): 3-14.
[5]	张兴航, 张百平, 王晶, 余付勤, 赵超, 姚永慧. 中国南北过渡带东段样带植被序列与气候分界问题[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(1): 30-43.
[6]	李哲, 丁永建, 陈艾姣, 张智华, 张世强. 1960—2019年西北地区气候变化中的Hiatus现象及特征[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(9): 1845-1859.
[7]	郭泽呈, 魏伟, 石培基, 周亮, 王旭峰, 李振亚, 庞素菲, 颉斌斌. 中国西北干旱区土地沙漠化敏感性时空格局[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(9): 1948-1965.
[8]	敖荣军, 常亮. 基于结构方程模型的中国县域人口老龄化影响机制[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(8): 1572-1584.
[9]	宋周莺, 祝巧玲. 中国边境地区的城镇化格局及其驱动力[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(8): 1603-1616.
[10]	马春玥, 买买提·沙吾提, 姚杰, 古丽努尔·依沙克. 1950—2015年中国棉花生产时空动态变化[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(8): 1699-1710.
[11]	郑景云, 张学珍, 刘洋, 郝志新. 过去千年中国不同区域干湿的多尺度变化特征评估[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(7): 1432-1450.
[12]	陶泽兴, 葛全胜, 王焕炯. 1963—2018年中国垂柳和榆树开花始期积温需求的时空变化[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(7): 1451-1464.
[13]	瞿诗进, 胡守庚, 李全峰. 中国城市建设用地转型阶段及其空间格局[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(7): 1539-1553.
[14]	魏素豪, 李晶, 李泽怡, 宗刚. 中国农业竞争力时空格局演化及其影响因素[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(6): 1287-1300.
[15]	王少剑, 高爽, 黄永源, 史晨怡. 基于超效率SBM模型的中国城市碳排放绩效时空演变格局及预测[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(6): 1316-1330.