甘南牧区人文因素对环境的影响

doi:10.11821/xb201011011

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以生态足迹作为测度环境影响的指标，在计算1980-2007 年甘南牧区生态足迹、识别关键人文因素、分析关键人文因素特征的基础上，应用STIRPAT模型分解了人口、富裕水平、草地资源利用强度、生计策略、社会发展状态对环境影响的作用。结果表明：① 1980-2007 年甘南牧区生态足迹与人均生态足迹均呈上升趋势，其变化趋势与生物资源生态足迹一致，二者相关系数达0.996；② 1980-2007 年甘南牧区生态足迹强度呈下降趋势，其变化趋势与生物资源生态足迹强度基本一致，二者相关系数达0.978；③ 人口数量和草地资源利用强度是当前环境影响的主要驱动因子，由其引起的环境影响变化速度超过它们自身的变化速度，富裕水平的提高也将加剧对环境的影响，但其引起的环境影响变化速度低于其自身变化速度，而改善生计策略、提高城市化水平会减缓对环境的影响；④ 在观测数据范围内，分析结果支持环境Kuznets曲线假说。

关键词: 人文因素, 环境影响, 生态足迹, STIRPAT模型, 甘南牧区

Abstract:

Gannan pasturing area, located in the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, is a typical ecological sensitive area. We discern the impact of various human factors on the environment in order to find the measures to solve the complex environment problems. In this paper, the ecological footprint is taken as the index of the environmental impact. First of all, we calculate the ecological footprint from 1980 to 2007, distinguish the key human factors and analyze their characteristics. Then, we use the STIRPAT model to simulate the impact of the different human factors on the environment, such as population, affluence level, grassland utilization intensity, livelihood strategy and urbanization level. The results are obtained as follows: (1) The ecological footprint and per capita ecological footprint show an upward tendency from 1980 to 2007 in this area, which is consistent with the ecological footprint of biological resource, and its correlation coefficient reaches 0.996; (2) The intensity of ecological footprint shows a downward tendency, which coincides with the intensity of the ecological footprint of biological resource, and its correlation coefficient is 0.978; (3) Population and the intensity of grassland utilization are the two main drivers influencing the environment and the changing rate of the environment caused by them goes farther ahead of the changes of these two factors. The affluence level also exerts impact on the environment, but the changing rate of the environment is lower than that of the affluence level. Meanwhile, improving the livelihood strategy and enhancing the urbanization level will lower the impact on the environment; (4) The analytical result supports the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis within the range of data. Finally, this paper points out the problems which should be focused in the research of the impact of human factors on the environment.

Key words: human factors, environmental impact, ecological footprint, STIRPAT model, Gannan pasturing area

赵雪雁. 甘南牧区人文因素对环境的影响[J]. 地理学报, 2010, 65(11): 1411-1420.

ZHAO Xueyan. The Impact of Human Factors on the Environment in Gannan Pasturing Area[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(11): 1411-1420.

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