地理学报

地理学报 ›› 2010, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (9): 1121-1129.doi: 10.11821/xb201009009

• 地理信息科学 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于GIS的城市用地布局多情景模拟与方案评价——以江苏省太仓市为例

秦贤宏1,2,3,4, 段学军1, 杨剑4   

  1. 1. 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,南京210008;
    2. 中国科学院研究生院,北京100049;
    3. 江苏省工程咨询中心,南京210003;
    4. 南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,南京210009
  • 收稿日期:2010-01-18 修回日期:2010-04-10 出版日期:2010-09-20 发布日期:2010-09-20
  • 作者简介:秦贤宏(1982-), 男, 博士生, 湖北十堰人, 中国地理学会会员(S110006716A), 主要研究方向是区域发展与城 市规划中的模型应用。E-mail: qinxh-1982@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目（41071085）; 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(kzcx2-yw-321); 太仓城市总体规划(2007-2030) 前期研究课题

Scenario Simulation of Urban Land Use Allocation and Scheme Evaluation Based on GIS: A Case Study of Taicang City

QIN Xianhong1,2,3,4, DUAN Xuejun1, YANG Jian4   

  1. 1. Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, CAS, Nanjing 210008, China;
    2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3. Jiangsu Engineering Consulting Center, Nanjing 210003, China;
    4. School of Geographic and Oceanographic Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China
  • Received:2010-01-18 Revised:2010-04-10 Online:2010-09-20 Published:2010-09-20
  • Supported by:

    Foundation: National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41071085; Knowledge Innovation Program of CAS, No. kzcx2-yw-321; Previous Researching Program for Taicang City's Strategy Planning, 2007-2030]

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摘要：

用地布局一直是城市总体规划中的关键难题，以往的规划方案多凭借规划师的经验判断、简单的图层叠加和有限的公众参与生成。然而新的城乡规划法要求从多角度综合考虑城乡用地布局问题，更加注重规划过程的科学性和准确性，也就特别需要有一种适应多情景分析下的城市用地布局模拟与方案评价方法。文章以江苏省太仓市为例，借助GIS技术的强大空间分析功能，探讨了这种方法的技术流程：① 参考已有的大尺度城市未来模型，结合我国特别是研究区的区域特点，构建一个实用的城市未来模型(Urban Future Model，UFM)；② 通过用地评价、战略归纳、情景模拟等步骤，生成若干个可选的用地布局模拟方案；③ 应用多目标达成矩阵法从粮食、生态、灾害等多个角度对这些方案进行综合评价，并根据评价结果选择一个最佳方案作为本轮总规用地布局的规划参考方案。

关键词: 用地布局, 情景模拟, 方案评价, GIS, 太仓市

Abstract:

Urban land use allocation has been the top concern for city planners in the process of urban strategy planning for a long time. In the past, most of urban land-use layout schemes were formed by city planners' intuition, simply layers-overlapping and limited public participation. These methods just considered very few main factors and neglected many other factors that may also determine the spatial background differences, so schemes were often modified time and time again. With economic and social development, urban planning has become more and more complicated, and previous methods cannot meet our demand now. What's more, China' new urban planning law stresses that the land-use layout scheme should be made scientifically and accurately, so it is very necessary to find a more efficient method for urban land-use layout scenario simulation and scheme evaluation. Taking Taicang City as an example, this study discusses the technical process of this method by exploring the spatial analysis function of GIS: Firstly, based on the existing research of Urban Future Model, it builds a more practical model for urban spatial expansion simulation, considering Chinese characteristics especially the real situation of the study area, Then it generates three land-use layout schemes on the basis of land use evaluation, scenario analysis and urban spatial expansion simulation. Finally, the study evaluates these land-use layout schemes by introducing multiple-target-arrive-matrix method from the aspects of agricultural safety, ecological safety, geological hazards and flood disasters, and then chooses the most optimal plan as the reference scheme of the urban strategy planning. Results show that this method has greatly improved the efficiency of urban land-use layout scheme making， and the outcome of selected reference scheme is very similar to that of the final planning scheme.

Key words: land use arrangement, scenario simulation, scheme evaluation, GIS, Taicang City