地理学报 ›› 2010, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (9): 1079-1088.doi: 10.11821/xb201009005

• 气候变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

长江流域实际蒸发量的变化趋势

王艳君1, 姜彤2, 刘波3   

  1. 1. 南京信息工程大学遥感学院,南京210044;
    2. 中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081;
    3. 河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098
  • 收稿日期:2010-03-23 修回日期:2010-06-10 出版日期:2010-09-20 发布日期:2010-11-19
  • 作者简介:王艳君(1978-), 女, 湖南永州人, 副教授, 博士, 主要从事气候变化对水文水资源影响研究。 E-mail: yjwang78@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(40701028); 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2010CB428401); 南京信息工程大学校内科研基金(20070134)

Trends of Estimated and Simulated Actual Evapotranspiration in the Yangtze River Basin

WANG Yanjun1, JIANG Tong2, LIU Bo3   

  1. 1. School of Remote Sensing, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
    2. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
    3. School of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
  • Received:2010-03-23 Revised:2010-06-10 Online:2010-09-20 Published:2010-11-19
  • Supported by:

    Foundation: National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40701028; The Basic Research Development Program of China, No.2010CB428401; Foundation of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, No.20070134

摘要:

采用经过参数率定的区域蒸散互补关系原理AA模型和全球海气耦合模式ECHAM5/MPI-OM估算长江流域1961-2007 年的实际蒸发量,运用线性回归法和非参数Mann-Kendall 秩次相关检验法对2 种方法估算的实际蒸发量进行年、年代际和季节变化特征分析与对比,揭示长江流域实际蒸发量的变化规律。结果表明:长江流域年实际蒸发量呈现显著的下降趋势,2种方法估算的结果分别以-9.3 mm/10a 和-3.6 mm/10a 的速度下降,从20 世纪90 年代开始实际蒸发量的下降幅度明显增大;在季节变化上,2 种方法估算的结果在春、秋季均呈现显著的下降趋势,在夏、冬季表现为相反的变化趋势;在空间差异上,流域各地区的变化趋势总体较一致,其中以中下游地区的变化趋势最为显著。

关键词: 实际蒸发量, AA模型, ECHAM5/MPI-OM模式, 长江流域

Abstract:

In this paper, the actual evapotranspiration in the Yangtze River Basin is calculated by the advection-aridity (AA) model with parameters validation during 1961-2007 and simulated by the general circulation model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) from 1961 to 2000. The linear regression method and nonparametric Mann-Kendall test are used to examine the trends of annual, inter-decadal and seasonal estimated actual evapotranspiration. The results show that the annual actual evapotanspiration estimated by the above two methods presents the same decreasing trends in the upper and the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and this decrease is more significant in the mid-lower than in the upper Yangtze. The significance of decreasing annual actual evapotranspiration calculated by AA model is higher than that simulated by ECHAM5/MPI-OM, and the decreasing rate is about -9.3 mm/10a and -3.6 mm/ 10a respectively. The former is attributed to the significant decreasing trend in summer actual evapotranspiration, while the latter is caused by a significant decreasing trend in autumn and spring actual evapotranspiration. In the mid-lower Yangtze River, the seasonal actual evapotranspiration estimated by the two methods displays consistent changing trends, i.e. decreasing actual evapotranspiration in spring, summer, autumn, and increasing in winter. In the upper Yangtze River, the seasonal actual evapotranspiration estimated by the two methods shows similar downward trends in spring and autumn; the summer and winter actual evapotranpiration estimated by the two methods shows upward changing trends.

Key words: actual evapotranspiration, AA model, ECHAM5/MPI-OM model, Yangtze River Basin