地理学报 ›› 2010, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (8): 983-990.doi: 10.11821/xb201008009

• 城市地理 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于STIRPAT模型分析CO2控制下上海城市发展模式

燕华, 郭运功, 林逢春   

  1. 华东师范大学资源与环境科学学院,上海200062
  • 收稿日期:2009-09-17 修回日期:2010-05-07 出版日期:2010-08-20 发布日期:2010-08-20
  • 通讯作者: 林逢春(1970-), 男, 副教授, E-mail: fclin2005@gmail.com
  • 作者简介:燕华(1984-), 女, 山东聊城人, 硕士研究生, 主要从事环境规划与管理、环境影响评价研究。 E-mail: yanhua-1960@163.com

Analyzing the Developing Model of Chinese Cities under the Control of CO2 Emissions Using the STIRPAT Model:A Case Study of Shanghai

YAN Hua, GUO Yungong, LIN Fengchun   

  1. School of Resources and Environmental Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
  • Received:2009-09-17 Revised:2010-05-07 Online:2010-08-20 Published:2010-08-20

摘要:

随着经济的快速发展,中国CO2排放量不断增加,研究中国各大城市采取何种发展模式,减缓CO2的排放量,成为当前研究热点。利用STIRPAT模型,定量分析了CO2排放量与人口、富裕度、城市化水平和技术进步之间的关系,并经岭回归拟合发现人口数量、人均 GDP、城市化水平和技术进步每发生1%的变化,将引起CO2 排放总量相应发生0.618%、 (0.178+0.009lnA)%、0.816%和0.264%的变化。在上述研究的基础上,以上海市为例,通过设 置10 种不同的发展情景,分析了在何种情景下最有利于减缓CO2的排放。结果表明,当经济、人口保持中速增长,城市化率进程放缓而节能减排技术取得较大进步时,上海市最有利于减缓CO2排放量,此时上海市2010 年、2015 年和2020 年CO2排放量分别为17053.57 万t、19286.64 万t和20885.69 万t。

关键词: STIRPAT模型, CO2排放量, 影响因素, 发展情景, 中国, 上海

Abstract:

With the economic development and increasing emissions of CO2, the study has become one of hotspots in the developing model of Chinese cities in order to slow down CO2 emissions. Using the STIRPAT model, this paper analyzed the impact of population, affluence, urbanization and technology on the total CO2 emissions, and the results showed that 1% change of population, per capita GDP, urbanization and technology would cause a corresponding occurrence of 0.618%, (0.178+0.009lnA)%, 0.816% and 0.264% change in the total CO2 emissions. Based on this study, taking Shanghai as an example, it set 10 developing scenarios and analyzed the best model of reducing CO2 emissions. Results show that under the scenario of economy, population in mid-speed, low urbanization and high technology, it would be best for Shanghai to reduce CO2 emissions, and the emissions of CO2 in 2010, 2015, 2020 would be 17053.57, 19286.64, 20885.69 ten thousands tons, respectively.

Key words: STIRPAT model, CO2 emissions, impact factor, developing scenario