地理学报 ›› 2010, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (8): 899-906.doi: 10.11821/xb201008001

• 区域产业发展 •    下一篇

东北三省装备制造业区域专业化水平分析

韩增林, 徐丹, 郭建科   

  1. 辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心, 教育部人文社科重点研究基地,大连116029
  • 收稿日期:2010-01-31 修回日期:2010-05-25 出版日期:2010-08-20 发布日期:2010-08-31
  • 作者简介:韩增林(1956-), 男, 教授, 博士生导师, 中国地理学会会员(S110001642M), 研究方向为区域经济和海洋经济地理。E-mail: hzl@lnnu.edu.cn

Industrial Specialization of Equipment Manufacturing Industry in the Three Provinces of Northeast China

HAN Zenglin, XU Dan, GUO Jianke   

  1. School of Urban and Environmental Science, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, Liaoning, China
  • Received:2010-01-31 Revised:2010-05-25 Online:2010-08-20 Published:2010-08-31

摘要:

通过对东北三省1993-2006 年装备制造业产业的区位商、状态概率分布与各态历经概率的分析,得出东北三省装备制造业发展不均衡,产业发展存在梯度差异并在个别行业中有继续扩大趋势,地区专业化正在形成;辽宁省总体发展态势好于吉林和黑龙江省,吉林省交通运输设备制造业是本地区乃至全国的优势产业;总体看东北三省装备制造业发展状态很不稳定,虽然是传统工业基地,但迁移性仍较大。

关键词: 东北三省, 区域专业化, 区位商, 装备制造业

Abstract:

The equipment manufacturing industry is the strategic industry which relates to the national economy development, especially in the old Northeast China industrial base including Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning provinces. In this paper, we study models of regional specialization composed of location quotient model, probability distribution and ergodic probabilities model, transition matrix and correlation coefficient model. We calculate the location quotients that can evaluate the level of the specialization of equipment manufacturing industry. Then we adopt discrete-time Markov chain to simulate the probability distribution of location quotient and obtain the transition matrix. We calculate the ergodic probabilities that are used to estimate whether the specialization of regional industry has converged to the steady states and invoke the correlation coeffecient to see the potential of the three provinces in regional specialization division. Based on the analyses of all the indexes of equipment manufacturing industry from 1993 to 2006 in the three provinces, we find that the development of equipment manufacturing industry in the region is not balanced, the grades exist and the gap will be widened. The regional specialization is emerging. Overall, Liaoning is better than Jilin and Heilongjiang, transportation equipment manufacturing industry in Jilin is dominant in the region, even in the whole country. Generally, as a traditional industrial base, Northeast China is unstable in equipment manufacturing industry, and great mobility still exists.

Key words: three provinces of Northeast China, industrial specialization, location quotient