地理学报 ›› 2010, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (6): 643-655.doi: 10.11821/xb201006002

• 土地利用 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于约束性CA方法的北京城市形态情景分析

龙瀛1, 2;沈振江3;毛其智1;党安荣1   

  1. 1. 清华大学建筑学院,北京100084;
    2. 北京市城市规划设计研究院,北京100045;
    3. 日本金泽大学环境设计学院,日本金泽920-1192
  • 收稿日期:2009-07-01 修回日期:2010-03-11 出版日期:2010-06-25 发布日期:2010-08-04
  • 作者简介:龙瀛(1980-), 男, 博士研究生, 高级工程师, 中国地理学会会员(S110007674M), 主要研究方向为规划支持系统和城市系统微观模拟。E-mail: longying1980@gmail.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(50678088); 国家“十一五”科技支撑计划项目(2006BAJ14B08)

Form Scenario Analysis Using Constrained Cellular Automata

LONG Ying1, 2, SHEN Zhen-jiang3, MAO Qi-zhi1, DANG An-rong1   

  1. 1. School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
    2. Beijing Institute of City Planning, Beijing 100045, China;
    3. School of Environment Design, Kanazawa University, Kanazawa 920-1192, Japan
  • Received:2009-07-01 Revised:2010-03-11 Online:2010-06-25 Published:2010-08-04
  • Supported by:

    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.50678088; Technical Supporting Programs Funded by Ministry of Science & Technology of China, No.2006BAJ14B08

摘要:

约束性元胞自动机(Constrained cellular automata,Constrained CA) 在模拟城市增长方面已有诸多实践,已有文献常利用各种反映土地利用需要、区位影响、管理制度等的政策参数,设定不同的城市空间发展情景以反映未来的城市形态。在基于约束性CA进行城市形态情景分析时,以各种政策参数作为情景条件的研究实例较多。而在中国的城市规划实践中,城市规划用于建设管理的审批,对应明确的城市形态,因而如何利用城市形态作为情景条件分析所需政策,也有实践意义,可以解决一些广为关注的重要问题,例如已有的发展政策是否与期望的城市形态相匹配,不同规划方案所需采取的政策有什么区别等。本文提出了以城市形态作为情景条件(即形态情景分析) 的新方法,该方法基于约束性CA,改变了传统的约束性CA情景条件的设置方法,以期望的未来城市形态为目标,识别相应需要的发展政策。并将北京市域的4 个规划城市形态作为情景条件进行了实证分析,对多个规划方案实施的可能性和政策参数进行对比分析,证明该方法具有较好的适用性和可行性,是将约束性CA的应用扩展到城市规划领域的又一尝试。

关键词: 元胞自动机, 城市形态, 期望情景, 城市规划, 北京

Abstract:

Scenario analysis has been widely applied in the realm of urban and regionalplanning. In most of current scenario analysis researches of urban growth, developing policiesare set as the input scenario conditions to generate various urban forms, which can bereferenced by policy makers and urban planners. This paper reverses the line of currentscenario analysis for urban growth, in which the term of form scenario analysis (FSA), aspatial explicit approach, is novelly defined, employing the urban form as the scenariocondition and aiming at identifying whether any policies set can be implemented to realizethe predefined form. If yes, what the detailed policy implications are for the scenario formshould be answered. A constrained cellular automata model (CA) is developed for FSA,which borrows the routine model calibration method of constrained CA using historicalobserved forms from existing literatures. Four planned schemes of Beijing Master Plan 2020for the Beijing Metropolitan Area are analyzed using constrained CA to test FSA approach,and the corresponding required policy parameters are generated, together with policyimplications for the study area. FSA is proved to be suitable for urban planning practice.

Key words: cellular automata, urban form, desired future, urban planning, Beijing