地理学报 ›› 2010, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (4): 485-493.doi: 10.11821/xb201004010

• 土地利用 • 上一篇    下一篇

江西省耕地转移驱动机理

战金艳1, 史娜娜1, 邓祥征2   

  1. 1. 北京师范大学环境学院水环境模拟国家重点实验室,北京100875;
    2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101
  • 收稿日期:2009-08-14 修回日期:2010-02-26 出版日期:2010-04-25 发布日期:2010-04-25
  • 作者简介:战金艳(1974-), 女, 山东潍坊市人, 博士, 副教授, 中国地理学会会员(S110007623M)。研究方向为生态系统评价与管理、环境生态建模与分析。E-mail: zhanjy@bnu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(40801231; 70873118); 国家科技支撑项目(2006BAC08B03; 2006BAC08B06); 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-305-2; KZCX2-YW-326-1)

Driving Mechanism of Cultivated Land Conversions in Jiangxi

ZHAN Jin-yan1; SHI Na-na1; DENG Xiang-zheng2   

  1. 1.State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation; School of Environment; Beijing Normal University; Beijing 100875; China; 
    2.Institute of Geographic and Natural Resources Research; CAS; Beijing 100101; China
  • Received:2009-08-14 Revised:2010-02-26 Online:2010-04-25 Published:2010-04-25
  • Supported by:

    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40801231; No.70873118; National Key Technology R&D Program of China, No.2006BAC08B03; No.2006BAC08B06; Knowledge Innovation Program of the CAS, No.KZCX2-YW-326-1; No.KZCX2-YW-305-2.

摘要:

构建涵盖农业生产、耕地向建设用地转移和耕地向林/草地转移的江西省土地用途转移驱动机理模型,采用分段估计逐步增加解释变量的方法测度了人口、社会、经济、区位和自然因素等驱动土地用途转移的机理。研究表明,人口规模是江西省土地用途转移的重要驱动力,社会经济因素在短时间内起决定性作用,各种驱动力以各种方式组合来增强或者减弱其对区域土地用途转移的作用效果。其中,农业人口规模及生产投入要素是影响江西省农业生产的主要因素;人口规模、平原面积比例及土地管理政策是江西省耕地向建设用地转移过程的重要解释变量;农业人口比重、地形坡度、粮食产量及非农产业是江西省耕地向林/草地转移过程的重要影响因素,并揭示了解释了江西省在众多驱动力作用下土地用途转移规律。

关键词: 耕地转移, 驱动机理, 驱动机理模型, 计量经济模型, 江西省

Abstract:

Cultivated land conversion is considered to be one of the major problems threatening agricultural development,food security and supporting functions of cultivated land conversions in Jiangxi.Recognization on the driving mechanism of cultivated land conversions is far from complete.This paper integrates geophysical information with socio-economic processes and policy changes to build an econometric model to explore the driving mechanism of cultivated land conversion from 1988 to 2005.Three equations are included in the econometric model to uncover the driving mechanism for agriculture production process,the conversion process from cultivated land to built-up area and the conversion process from cultivated land to forested land/grassland,which includes explained variables to identify the three main processes and the driving forces from social-economic,demographic,geophysical,managerial domains.The estimation results from the econometric model shows that the population size is one of the predominant driver for the three processes,and socio-economic factors play a decisive role in a short period of time.The synthesized influences from the multiple driving factors produces an enhanced or offsetting resultant effects for the ecological processes.The research results show that the agricultural population size and investment are the key influencing factors for agricultural production,while population size,the ratio of the plains area to total land and land management policy are the key explanatory variables in the conversion process of cultivated land to built-up area;and the proportion of agricultural population,terrain slope,food production and non-agricultural industry are the important influencing variables in the process of conversion from cultivated land to forested land/grassland.

Key words: cultivated land conversion, driving mechanism, driving mechanism model, econometric model, Jiangxi Province

中图分类号: 

  • F301.2