• 人口与城市 •

深圳市人口分布的细网格动态特征

1. 1. 深圳市气象局, 深圳518040；
2. 中国移动通信集团广东有限公司深圳分公司，深圳518048
• 收稿日期:2009-08-04 修回日期:2009-11-29 出版日期:2010-04-25 发布日期:2010-04-25
• 作者简介:毛夏(1963-), 男, 高级工程师, 中国气象学会会员, 主要从事气象灾害监测预警和灾害管理研究。E-mail: maoxia@139.com
• 基金资助:

国家863 项目(2006AA01A123)

Fine Grid Dynamic Features of Population Distribution in Shenzhen

MAO Xia1; XU Rong-rong2; LI Xin-shuo1; WANG Yu2; LI Cheng1; ZENG Bo2; HE Yu-hua1; LIU Jin-quan1

1. 1.Meteorological Bureau of Shenzhen Municipality; Shenzhen 518040; Guangdong; China;
2.China Mobile Communications Corporation Guangdong Co.Ltd.Shenzhen Branch; Shenzhen 518048; Guangdong; China
• Received:2009-08-04 Revised:2009-11-29 Online:2010-04-25 Published:2010-04-25
• Supported by:

Research and Development Program of China (863 Program), No.2006AA01A123

Abstract:

Shenzhen is the most densely populated city in China.In order to respond to emergencies,such as natural disasters,real time high resolution dynamic information of population distribution is needed.This paper analyzes the fine grid dynamic characteristics of Shenzhen population distribution,using the information of population density in respect of which the temporal resolution is an hour and the spatial resolution is a kilometer provided by the "Dynamic Monitoring System of Population Distribution Based on Mobile Stations".The mobile subscribers in Shenzhen total to 10.8259 million.The average population density is 5545 people/km2,and the maximum density reaches 165,000 people/km2.High density areas which have more than 50,000 people/km2 are mainly the business centers,custom ports,railway stations,and large residential communities.The value of the maximum population density depends on the size of grid used,for example the value of 1 km2 grid is about 18 times than the value of 1000 km2 grid.Some 50% of the population in Shenzhen is concentrated in 10% of the city\'s spatial area,and 60% resides in the areas where altitudes are between 50 m to 100 m.The building density and the road density on the grid are linearly correlated with population density,that is,1000 people are added when the building density increases by 1%,and about 2,000 people are added when the road density increases by 0.01%.The total population of a city is relatively stable during a period of time,the variation of which is commonly less than 4% and the daily variation is about 1%.Shenzhen is a typical immigration city,and the total population will decrease by 48% during the Chinese New Year because a lot of people will go back to their hometowns or traval around.This paper selects 9 typical grids to analyze the daily variation of the population and they are as follows:custom ports have a morning peak,and people going outbound crowd here at about 8 a.m.;bazaar areas have a noon peak;business centers have an evening peak with a net inflow/outflow over 20,000 people/hr;residential communities have a noon trough,and the density of population is always bigger on the weekends than on the weekdays;in the government offices and public service areas,there are fewer people on the weekends than on the weekdays and the population is decreased by 75% during the Chinese New Year;the factory area has a peak of population at about 4 a.m.because of the peak load shifting;outing area is more crowded during the holidays and weekends;in the out-of-the-way area,the daily variation of population is very little;and in the farming area,there is a morning trough of population at about 9 a.m.which corresponds to the traditional farming habits.

• C924.25