地理学报 ›› 2010, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (2): 224-234.doi: 10.11821/xb201002009

• 环境与经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国东北地区森林覆被变化的原因与趋势

邓祥征1, 2, 姜群鸥1, 3, 战金艳4, 何书金1, 林英志1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101;
    2. 中国科学院农业政策研究中心,北京100101;
    3. 中国科学院研究生院,北京100049;
    4. 北京师范大学环境学院水环境模拟国家重点实验室,北京100875
  • 收稿日期:2009-08-14 修回日期:2009-12-22 出版日期:2010-02-25 发布日期:2010-07-24
  • 作者简介:邓祥征(1971-), 男, 博士, 副研究员, 中国地理学会会员(S110007622M), 主要从事土地系统变化与效应、区域环境变化研究。E-mail: dengxz.ccap@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(70821140353; 70873118); 国家科技支撑项目(2006BAC08B03; 2006BAC08B06); 中国科学院知识创新工程项目(KZCX2-YW-326-1; KZCX2-YW-305-2; KSCX1-YW-09-04) 资助

Causes and Trends of Forestry Area Change in Northeast China

DENG Xiang-zheng1,2; JIANG Qun-ou1,3; ZHAN Jin-yan4; HE Shu-jin1; LIN Ying-zhi1   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research; CAS; Beijing 100101; China; 
    2. Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy; CAS; Beijing 100101; China; 
    3. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences; Beijing 100049; China; 
    4. State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation; School of Environment; Beijing Normal University; Beijing 100875; China)
  • Received:2009-08-14 Revised:2009-12-22 Online:2010-02-25 Published:2010-07-24
  • Supported by:

    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.70821140353; No.70873118; National Key Technology R&D Program, No.2006BAC08B03; No.2006BAC08B06; Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.KZCX2-YW-326-1; No.KZCX2-YW-305-2; No.KSCX1-YW-09-04

摘要:

以中国东北地区森林覆被变化为研究对象,构建了涵盖林业生产、疏林地向有林地转换和其他用地向有林地转换三个方程组成的计量经济模型,研究了自然环境条件和社会经济因素对森林覆被变化的驱动作用。在此基础上,应用土地系统动态(DLS)模拟系统预测了2000-2020年在环境保育情景、基准情景和发展优先情景下中国东北地区森林覆被变化的趋势。研究结果表明,自然环境条件是森林覆被变化的重要控制因素,对林业生产和林地面积转移有显著的制约作用;区位条件、退耕还林政策和天然林保护工程等社会经济因素也均在不同程度影响了东北地区森林覆被的变化。在2000-2020年间,东北地区林地面积整体将呈现增长态势。其中,有林地面积逐年增长,而疏林地和灌木林地均有所下降,其他林地变化幅度较小。本研究结论将为东北地区森林资源开发利用与保护、林业发展规划提供决策参考信息。

关键词: 林地, 面积变化, 计量经济模型, 土地系统动态模拟系统, 东北地区

Abstract:

The Northeast China region is one of the areas covered by plenty of primeval forests. As an important region for ecological protection, it contributes a lot to the conservation of water resources and land, produces timber production and provides habitats for a huge number of wild animals and plants. With changes in socio-economic conditions as well as the geophysical environment, there are more and more severe decreasing trends of forestry area. Therefore, it is of significance to find the underlining reasons for the changes of forestry areas. To grasp the determinants of forestry area in Northeast China, we develop the econometric model with three equations identifying forest industrial production, conversion from sparse woodland to closed forest and conversion from non-forestry land uses to forestry area, and then explore the impacts on the changes of forestry area from such factors as demography, society, economy, location and geophysical conditions. On this basis, we employ Dynamics of Land System (DLS) simulation software to simulate land conversions between forestry area and non-forestry land uses and the land conversion inside forestry area for the period 2000-2020 under baseline scenario, environmental conservation scenario and development as the top priority. The research results show that forestry area will expand continuously and there exist various kinds of changing patterns for the secondary forestry classes, indicating that closed forest will expand continuously while sparse woodland and shrubs decrease a little bit, area of other forest uses will remain unchanged. The research results provide valuable information for decision-making in development and utilization of forest resources and forestry development plan in Northeast China.

Key words: forestry area, area change, econometric model, dynamics of land system, Northeast China

中图分类号: 

  • S718.5