地理学报 ›› 2010, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (2): 164-176.doi: 10.11821/xb201002004

• 人口与城市 • 上一篇    下一篇

汶川地震灾后重建地区的人口容量分析

高晓路; 陈田; 樊杰   

  1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
  • 收稿日期:2009-05-22 修回日期:2009-09-29 出版日期:2010-02-25 发布日期:2010-02-25
  • 作者简介:高晓路(1969-), 研究员, 博士, 中国地理学会会员(S110006075M), 研究方向为城市规划、城市地理。E-mail: gaoxl@igsnrr.ac.cn。
  • 基金资助:

    中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX-YW-Q06; KZCX2-YW-Q03-06); 国家科技支撑计划课题(2008BAK50B05)

Population Capacity in the Wenchuan Earthquake Reconstruction Areas

GAO Xiao-lu; CHEN Tian; FAN Jie   

  1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research; Beijing 100101; China
  • Received:2009-05-22 Revised:2009-09-29 Online:2010-02-25 Published:2010-02-25
  • Supported by:

    Knowledge Innovation Projects of Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. KZCX-YW-Q06; No.KZCX2-YW-Q03-06; Project of National Science and Technology Infrastructure Program, No.2008BAK50B05

摘要:

结合国家汶川地震灾区资源环境承载力评估的工作任务,对区域人口容量分析的方法和技术流程进行了研究。依据区域人口和城镇化发展的基本理论和汶川地震灾区的实际情况,提出以耕地总量为基本约束的人口容量测算思路,并对影响区域人口承载能力的各种区域经济发展条件进行了预测和分析,由此确定了测算人口容量的政策参数。在上述分析的基础上,构建了人口容量分析的计算机辅助决策模型,对灾区各县市的合理人口容量、人口超载情况及人口超载的不同类型,灾后人口调整方案进行了分析和测算,并提出了具体的政策建议。分析表明,汶川大地震灾后重建区的51个县市区的灾后实际人口为2025.91万人,而整个区域未来可以承受的总人口在2970万人左右,整个区域的人口容量尚有较大富余。为了避免跨县跨区域人口迁移的后续难题,应该重点解决由于地震而引起的部分县市的人口超载问题。在51个县市区当中,这样的县包括汶川、北川和茂县,三县的超载总人口为10万人左右。3县目前在外打工的人口较少,仅靠打工所在地省市对于这一部分人口进行就地安置不足以解决10万人口的超载问题。为此,有必要采取更加直接的中长期人口对策,包括实施跨县人口转移,提高耕地的复垦率、通过政策扶持的手段提高城镇化率、降低农村居民对于耕地的依赖度等。

关键词: 汶川大地震, 灾后重建, 资源环境承载能力, 人口容量

Abstract:

As one of the kernel parts of Assessment of Regional Carrying Capacity of the Wenchuan Earthquake Struck Areas, this study developed a decision-making model for estimating the population capacity of the involved townships and cities based on the assessment of the suitability for reconstruction of the areas. It identified the critical constraints of population capacity and analyzed the spatial differentiations of the post-quake development conditions across different regions. The expected levels of urbanization, family incomes and income structures, levels of land output, and the reliance of agricultural population on arable lands are estimated by regions. With these parameters, the population capacities of townships and cities under several scenarios were estimated. According to the status of over-population, the townships and cities were classified and relevant policy suggestions on post-quake resettlement were presented.

Key words: Wenchuan earthquake, post-earthquake reconstruction, carrying capacity of resources and regional environments, population capacity

中图分类号: 

  • C922